As we progress through the dead of the NFL offseason, we have plenty to scan over as we prepare for fantasy football draft season. There were plenty of moves that we’ve been discussing at length before the 2026 regular season begins. Some of those narratives we trust and are going to take into our drafts. Others, we’re not so sure about. Yahoo analyst Scott Pianowski, Joel Smyth, Matt Harmon and Justin Boone share the one offseason narrative that they aren’t buying going into this season.
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I understand why the public is skeptical of the Miami offense. The team is projected for a modest 4.5 wins, and the Miami WR room is the skimpiest in the league. But I still think Willis could run his way into fantasy relevance, and I discount the idea that Miami’s mediocre offense is an automatic death knell to his fantasy potential.
Although Willis has just six NFL starts to his name, he averaged a handy 44.8 rushing yards per game in those starts, with six overall rushing touchdowns. The Titans didn’t give him much responsibility in his three starts there, but he did have QB3 and QB6 finishes among his Green Bay spot starts the last two years. I get it, Matt LaFleur and Christian Watson and Jayden Reed aren’t walking through that door. But Willis is a perfect value target for anyone who plays in a league where multiple starting QBs are required, a nod to the timeless Konami Code. There will be moments this fall where the Dolphins are blown out and Willis struggles – but still puts up 18 or 20 fantasy points. It’s just algebra, friends. — Scott Pianowski
Injured star tight ends will be full-go by Week 1
After OTAs and Tight End University, the hype for modern medicine and the recovery of star tight ends George Kittle and Tucker Kraft are very positive. While this can be true, a slow fantasy start can also be at play. Reminder, fantasy football managers want their starting TE to be receiving full volume Week 1 more than NFL teams with a long term focus. The Packers historically have taken a cautious approach with players coming back from injury, and the 49ers star not only had a major injury, but it happened in January, rather than early in the season.
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Kittle will be 33 in October, making me question how much the 49ers will push him to play his normal snap count nine months off an Achilles tear. Him and Kraft are also both yards-after-the-catch specialists, relying on their playmaking with the ball in their hands rather than seeing 150 targets.
Lastly, the TE2 option for each team has proven themselves as solid successors when their number has been called, not the same mind-blowing numbers, but can fill in well during the meantime. If you draft them early, I’d prepare to have some fantasy points made up for until the middle of the season. — Joel Smyth
Patrick Mahomes will miss time early this season
Admittedly, when Mahomes tore his ACL late last season, I did assume that the star quarterback wouldn’t be ready for Week 1. The Chiefs going out and adding Justin Fields to be the backup seemed to also point in that direction. For all of Fields’ flaws, he can get you through a stretch of a few games with his mobility. That said, based on everything I’ve seen, and the fact that he was already, at some level, participating in OTAs, my stance has changed.
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At this point, I’d be pretty shocked if he’s not out there for Week 1. He’s one of the best players in the sport and already beat injury timelines in multiple instances through his career. If you’re fading Chiefs’ pass-catchers this year, you’re doing it because you don’t believe in their abilities or reliability — a totally justifiable stance for what it’s worth — not because they’ll play games without Mahomes this year.
Now, there should be outstanding questions about whether Mahomes will be himself at the start of the year, which is a critical variable considering his own fantasy value was boosted by rushing output in 2025. I expect Mahomes to start Week 1 but I still don’t intend to draft many Chiefs’ passing-game options this season. — Matt Harmon
Eagles’ offense will take a step back without A.J. Brown
While it’s certainly not ideal to lose your star receiver, the sky is not falling in Philadelphia. DeVonta Smith has long been an overqualified No. 2 wideout, who is ready to step into the top spot. Dallas Goedert has excelled when Brown missed time in the past and has finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in seven consecutive seasons. Saquon Barkley remains one of the better backs in the league and will be poised for a bounce-back year with some better injury luck on his offensive line.
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The front office has also restocked the shelves with promising talent in the form of first-round receiver Makai Lemon and second-round tight end Eli Stowers, in addition to a pair of solid veteran pass-catchers in Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. Helping their cause even further will be one of the league’s easiest schedules from a fantasy perspective, with the Eagles facing the softest slate at QB, WR and TE, as well as the second friendliest for RBs.
New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion brings a much-needed breath of fresh air to the offense, which will likely ask more of Jalen Hurts in the passing attack. With the solid supporting cast assembled, the Eagles are an offense I’ll be investing heavily in for 2026. — Justin Boone
