UFC Perth is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., May 2, 2026) inside RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. In the main event, former UFC Welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena takes on top Brazilian contender Caros Prates in what should be a banger fight.
Advertisement
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap “Down Under” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Perth betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Perth odds here).
Last week’s recap: We cashed Davey Grant’s ML at UFC Vegas 116, as he defeated Octagon newcomer, Adrian Luna Martinetti, via unanimous decision.
We’re on a SEVEN-week win streak, so let’s keep rolling below:
Kicking off UFC Perth’s main card is fan-favorite, Tai Tuivasa, colliding with Louie Sutherland on short notice (details here). This week, I’m locking in Tuivasa’s moneyline at -210.
Advertisement
Here’s why:
Yes, the losing streak is real. Tuivasa has dropped six straight fights and hasn’t had his hand raised since 2022. But, context matters. Almost all of those losses came against Top 15-ranked, elite-level competition — the kind of fighters who separate contenders from the rest of the division. He wasn’t losing to fringe names; on the contrary, he was fighting killers.
Now, UFC is giving him a clear bounce-back opportunity.
Sutherland enters this fight winless (0-2) in UFC, with both losses coming by first round finish. That’s already a red flag. Add in the fact that he’s stepping in on short notice, was stopped two months ago, and the task becomes even more daunting.
Advertisement
Plus, he’s just not very good.
Meanwhile, Tuivasa is fighting for his career. This is a must-win fight, and he knows it. To quote him, “his ass is on the line.” Those situations often bring out the best in veterans. Add in the hometown advantage — Perth is going to be electric — and you’ve got a fighter who should be highly motivated to turn things around.
Stylistically, this matchup also favors Tuivasa. He’s still one of the most dangerous early-round knockout artists in the division, with legitimate one-punch power and a willingness to stand and trade. Against an opponent who has already shown durability issues, that’s a recipe for success.
Simply put, this is a step down in competition he has needed.
Advertisement
What could go wrong?
Heavyweight mixed martial arts (MMA) is chaos. Tuivasa’s durability has taken a hit during his losing streak, and if Sutherland lands something clean early, things could get weird quickly. There’s also the mental factor — six straight losses can weigh on any fighter.
Also, maybe at 33 years old, Tuivasa could really be washed.
Still, given the matchup, motivation and experience gap, Tuivasa at -210 looks like one of the safest bounce-back bets on UFC Perth’s action-packed card.
-
Tai Tuivasa To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: -125
-
Tai Tuivasa To Win By Submission: +2500
-
Tai Tuivasa To Win By Decision: +550
-
Louie Sutherland To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +450
-
Louie Sutherland by Submission: +1400
-
Louie Sutherland To Win By Decision: +500
