Dusty May’s late-June departure for the NBA is incredibly rare. It has been done before, but it hasn’t been done since another Michigan coach, John Beilein, left for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2019. The dream of a Michigan dynasty under May is now dead, so what should Michigan fans expect next year?
Obviously there are still a ton of moving parts that will need to be settled. Michigan’s roster will be in a state of flux. However, we can look at some historical precedent to see how well teams have performed the year after their coach left for the NBA.
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John Beilein, Michigan to Cleveland Cavaliers in May 2019
As Michigan fans are painfully aware, the last NCAA head coach to leave for the NBA immediately as a head coach was a legendary figure in Ann Arbor. With most of available college coaches already taken, Warde Manuel pivoted to program legend Juwan Howard, who was an NBA assistant coach at the time.
Howard inherited a program that was firing on all cylinders. He largely kept the train moving in the first year, finishing 19-12 and headed for the NCAA Tournament before the pandemic canceled the tournament.
Billy Donovan, Florida to Oklahoma City Thunder in April 2015
Donovan experienced a bit of a down year in his last season at the helm of the Gators. Florida went 16-17 and missed the NCAA Tournament. Florida then hired Mike White, who marginally improved the team in his first season by going 21-15 but still missing the tournament. This wasn’t a crazy improvement, but it was marginally better than Donovan’s last season.
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Fred Hoiberg, Iowa State to Chicago Bulls in June 2015
Hoiberg had built a perennial tournament team at Iowa State, which was relatively rare. The year he left, the Cyclones were a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament before being upset by 14-seed UAB. To replace him, Iowa State hired Steve Prohm out of Murray State. He lost more than half of the roster from the previous season, but did an excellent job and built a 4-seed in his first season. The Cyclones went 23-12 and made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Brad Stevens, Butler to Boston Celtics in July 2013
Brad Stevens coached two seasons at Butler after his magical run to the National Championship. When he left for the Celtics, Butler was also moving up from the A-10 to the Big East. Incoming coach Brandon Miller had a tall task ahead of him. Not only that, but Butler’s best returning player, Roosevelt Jones, got hurt and missed the season. Needless to say, the Bulldogs had a reasonable slide back to reality. Butler finished 14-17 and did not play in a postseason tournament.
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Mike Montgomery, Stanford to Golden State Warriors in June 2004
Montgomery was at Stanford for 18 years before jumping to the NBA. His replacement, Trent Johnson, went 18-13 in his first season with the Cardinal. Stanford made the NCAA Tournament as an 8-seed but lost in the Round of 64. For context, in Montgomery’s last season at Stanford, they went 30-2 and were a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Stanford lost both Montgomery and Josh Childress, who was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft.
Leonard Hamilton, Miami to Washington Wizards in May 2000
Many people forget Leonard Hamilton spent 10 seasons as the coach at Miami. In his final season, the Hurricanes went 23-11. They were a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament and made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Miami replaced Hamilton with Perry Clark, who struggled mightily in his first season. The Hurricanes went 16-13 and missed the NCAA Tournament in 2000-01. Miami would be stagnant for a few years before eventually hiring Jim Larranaga.
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Lon Kruger, Illinois to Atlanta Hawks in June 2000
In Kruger’s last season at Illinois, the Fighting Illini went 22-10 and made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament as a 4-seed. However, Kruger leaving was a blessing in disguise as they replaced him with Bill Self. Self quickly built Illinois into a juggernaut, going 27-8 in his first season at the helm. Illinois was a Big Ten co-champion and made the Elite 8 as a 1-seed.
Tim Floyd, Iowa State to Chicago Bulls in July 1998
Tim Floyd’s last season was largely a disaster, as the Cyclones went 12-18 and missed the big dance. He was replaced by Larry Eustachy, who went 15-15 in his first year. Eustachy lost most of the roster he inherited, as they elected to transfer. He would eventually turn the program around, but the first year was a struggle.
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Rick Pitino, Kentucky to Boston Celtics in May 1997
Pitino appears twice on this list. In his most recent trip from the NCAA to the NBA, he left Kentucky after losing in the National Championship with guys like Ron Mercer, Derek Anderson and Jamaal Magloire. Pitino was replaced by Tubby Smith, who managed to keep nearly the entire roster intact. Smith one-upped Pitino by winning the National Championship in his first season. This was the best case scenario for Kentucky.
John Calipari, UMass to New Jersey Nets in May 1996
Coach Cal made a name for himself at UMass. In his last season with the Minutemen, Calipari took the team to the Final Four on the back of Marcus Camby, though it would eventually be vacated as Camby was given gifts in the recruiting process. UMass promoted Bruiser Flint from within. Unfortunately the wheels fell off for UMass, as they struggled to a 19-14 record with a first round exit in the NCAA Tournament.
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P.J. Carlesimo, Seton Hall to Portland Trail Blazers in June 1994
Carlesimo coached at Seton Hall for 12 years before eventually leaving for Portland. In his final year, the Pirates went 17-13 and made the NCAA Tournament but lost in the first round. Carlesimo was replaced by George Blaney, who went 16-14 and missed the NCAA Tournament in his first year.
Jerry Tarkanian, UNLV to San Antonio Spurs in June 1992
Tarkanian had built a behemoth of a basketball program. Having won a National Championship in 1990, taken the team to the Final Four in 1991 and the Elite 8 in 1992 it was only fitting that the NBA came calling. However, NCAA investigations heavily clouded the end of Tarkanian’s tenure. He was replaced by Rollie Massimino, who went 21-8 in his first year. They made the NCAA Tournament but lost in the Round of 32. UNLV’s program would eventually unravel, but things stayed partially intact.
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Rick Pitino, Providence to New York Knicks in July 1987
Pitino was only at Providence for two years (similar to May), but those two years were wonderful for the Friars. Providence lost in the Final Four in Pitino’s second and final season before leaving for the Knicks. They replaced Pitino with Gordon Chiesa, who was only at Providence for one season and went 11-17.
