The time has come to crown a new(ish) WNBA Commissioner’s Cup champion.
This in-season tournament has often been a good indicator of which teams are the best in the league. In 2023 and 2024, the Commissioner’s Cup matchup was identical to the WNBA Finals. So while plenty of events can alter the league’s hierarchy, the history suggests these two teams are the top contenders to win it all.
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This Commissioner’s Cup title match is set up to be a classic. The Las Vegas Aces are the WNBA defending champions, plus the 2022 Cup champ, and the New York Liberty won it all back in 2024, while winning the Cup in 2023. On Tuesday, we find out which team can claim another trophy—one that would make them the league’s first two-time Cup champs.
Here are the three key factors that can lead to an Aces win.
1. The Aces absolutely need A’ja to play
The best ability is availability. Right now, the status of the league’s best player is in question.
A’ja Wilson hurt her leg during Las Vegas’ contest against the Chicago Sky and is listed as questionable for the Commissioner’s Cup.
Wilson’s importance can never be underestimated.
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She is the MVP of the league, arguably the best defender in the WNBA and everything involving the Aces revolves around her.
This season, she’s averaging 25.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Obviously, Wilson wants to play. And while it is important for Wilson not to push beyond what’s reasonable, but this is also a big game. Everyone will be waiting for an injury report update, and Wilson’s status could impact this game as much as anything else.
2. Vegas needs a better strategy to slow down Stewie
The good news for the Aces is they already have tape on how they matchup against the Liberty this season. The bad news is that data say the Liberty are better. New York beat Las Vegas 87-76 last week, and did so comfortably.
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In that game, Breanna Stewart dominated. She scored 20 points and shot 7-for-16 from the field. She had a pair of 3s over Wilson, was able to exploit mismatches when she had guards defending her and further took advantage when bigs like Cheyenne Parker-Tyus tried to stop her.
The Aces will have to do a better job of denying Stewart the ball and preventing her from picking the matchups she wants. That’s easier said than done, but if they can accomplish this, the odds of winning improve a whole lot.
3. Big games Jackie and Chennedy would boost Vegas to the victory
Regardless of whether Wilson plays or not, the guards have to step up. Luckily for the Aces, they have the personnel to do that.
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Jackie Young has continued to improve her game. She’s averaging 16.5 points per game, but her 3-point shooting has definitely gotten better. From beyond the arc, Young is knocking down 38.6 percent of her shots. When Young makes three or more shots from deep, Las Vegas is 6-0.
Chennedy Carter has been an electrifying player off the bench for the Aces. When she’s been healthy and available, she’s been fantastic, averaging 14.1 points on ridiculous efficiency, making 60 percent of her shots.
If she puts life into her shifts and remains in attack mode, she can alter this game in Las Vegas’ favor. She is not on the injury report and played in the Aces’ last game, so she should be ready to go.
Despite the Liberty being an up-and-down team this season, this game will be tough for the Aces to win. New York has that championship pedigree and are at home.
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If Las Vegas can grind out the win, it’ll be their second Commissioner’s Cup title, making them queens of the tournament. If they don’t win, then they’ll be the first team to lose the title game twice.
The pressure is on. Ball up top! In the comments, let us know what you expect from the Aces.
