Tadej Pogačar remains the overwhelming favourite for the Tour de France. That much is clear. It doesn’t mean it’s a done deal, that the race will be boring, or that Jonas Vingegaard has no chance. However, it will be a significant surprise if the Slovenian isn’t on the top step in Paris in a month’s time.
His nearest challenger is expected to be Vingegaard of Visma-Lease a Bike, he is the only rider to ever beat UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s Pogačar at the Tour de France, after all, and is coming into the race off the back of winning the Giro d’Italia. If his contention that he is usually better in his second Grand Tour of the year is correct, then we could be in for a fascinating battle across France.
News editor at Cycling Weekly, Adam brings his weekly opinion on the goings on at the upper echelons of our sport. This piece is part of The Leadout, a newsletter series from Cycling Weekly and Cyclingnews. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here. As ever, email adam.becket@futurenet.com – should you wish to add anything, or suggest a topic.
That all said, the focus for many will be on the presence of Paul Seixas, Decathlon CMA CGM’s 19-year-old French phenomenon, who will be making his debut at his home Grand Tour. Just a few months ago, the idea of the teenager racing was preposterous, but here we are, and he will become the youngest starter at the Tour in 89 years as a result, and only the second 19-year-old to take part in the 21st century. The man from Lyon has vowed to “give everything I have over these three weeks and achieve the best result possible”.
It’s easy to get swept away in the tide of Seixas fever. He’s French, and the French haven’t had a genuine hope of winning their French Grand Tour in years, aside from Julian Alaphilippe’s 2019 heroics, ultimately in vain. They haven’t won the men’s race since 1985, although Pauline Ferrand-Prévot did win the Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift last year.
Seixas has already won six races this year, he was the only rider anywhere near Pogačar at Strade Bianche, where he finished second, and he could very well take to Grand Tour racing like he has to the rest of the WorldTour, with aplomb.
That said, I don’t think he’s the young Tour debutant with the best chance of winning the whole thing. That’s Isaac del Toro. The Mexican is currently the third-best rider on the UCI’s rankings. At just 22, he has won the UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico and most recently the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes this year, where he showed the kind of form which would ordinarily make him a favourite for the Tour.
Unlike Seixas, Del Toro has already ridden two Grand Tours, and came so close to winning the Giro d’Italia last year, until that Simon Yates masterstroke. There will be less pressure on him, no French media storm.
There is a problem with Del Toro as a contender: he also rides for UAE Team Emirates, and therefore will ultimately be in the service of Pogačar, who, as discussed, will be hard to beat. There could be a point of the race where the Mexican is forced to sacrifice his race in the name of his leader’s quest for a fifth yellow jersey; I can imagine Del Toro doing this with grace, he seems like a solid teammate.
That said, Pogačar might not need this sacrifice, and as the race goes on, I can see both UAE riders flying high on general classification. If anything happens to Pogačar – which is far-fetched, given his ridiculous fortune at Grand Tours – then Del Toro will be there, the ultimate understudy, ready to step in.
The hype machine will be focused on Seixas, understandably, but my attention will be on Del Toro just as much. A Mexican wave on the podium is not out of the question.
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If you want to get in touch with Adam, email adam.becket@futurenet.com.
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