MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 279’s main event between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi.
Kyoji Horiguchi Fight Night 279 preview
Kyoji Horiguchi, UFC Fight Night 279 media day interview
Staple info:
Advertisement
-
Record: 36-5 MMA, 9-2 UFC
-
Height: 5’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 69″
-
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
-
Stance/striking style: Orhtodox/kickboxing
Supplemental info:
-
+ Bellator bantamweight title
-
+ RIZIN Bantamweight champion
-
+ Black belt karate (2nd degree)
-
+ RIZIN bantamweight grand prix champ
-
+ 11 first-round finishes
-
+ Fast hand and foot speed
-
^ Superb blitzes and lateral movement
-
^ Moves head and counters well
-
+ Improved wrestling and scrambling ability
-
+ Dangerous ground striker
-
+/- 4-0 in career rematches
Manel Kape UFC Fight Night 279 preview
Manel Kape, UFC Fight Night 279 media day interview
Staple info:
-
Record: 22-7 MMA, 7-3 UFC
-
Height: 5’5″ Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
-
Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
-
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Supplemental info:
-
+ RIZIN bantamweight title
-
+ 10 first-round finishes
-
+ Solid feints and footwork
-
^ Works well off the counter
-
^ Defensively and offensively
-
+/- 1-0 in career rematches
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi breakdown: Striking the second time around
SAITAMA, JAPAN – DECEMBER 31: Kyoji Horiguchi of Japan and Manel Kape of Angola compete in the bantam weight GP semi-final bout during the RIZIN Fighting World Grand-Prix 2017 final Round at Saitama Super Arena on December 31, 2017 in Saitama, Japan. (Photo by Etsuo Hara/Getty Images)
The main event in Las Vegas features a rematch between men’s flyweight contenders Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi.
Their first encounter, which took place in the RIZIN ring roughly nine years ago, was a fun but foul-filled fight that saw the more seasoned Horiguchi outclass a more raw iteration of Kape on the feet before submitting him on the floor. Although you could argue that Kape has made more improvements since said meeting, Horiguchi’s skills and spirit appear to be shining brighter than ever.
Advertisement
Training in traditional martial arts since he was five, Horiguchi shows the preternatural understanding of combative ranges that you only see from years and years of experience.
Effectively circling on the outside, Horiguchi will typically time counters or blitzes once getting a beat on the action. But what makes Horiguchi an above-average Karate striker is his superb pocket awareness and lateral movement within the boxing department, as it’s not uncommon to see the 35-year-old roll under counters to come back with shots of his own.
Since moving his training camps to American Top Team, Horiguchi has also made improvements with his jab. Not only will Horiguchi flick out jabs more often than before, but he also does a decent job of drawing out his opponent’s jab in order to either split it down the center or counter over the top.
Horiguchi could certainly find success in these spaces, but he will still need to respect the counters coming back at him from Kape.
Advertisement
Despite being a dynamic showman with a solid arsenal, Manel Kape prefers to do most of his damage off the counter.
Fluent in both stances, Kape keeps a smoothness to his shifts and lateral movements that open up potent offensive opportunities. From counter crosses to counter hooks, Kape keeps a series of short shots that he’s ready to unload on a hair-trigger.
When Kape is feeling in stride, he shows little issue with digging to the body or mixing in the occasional knee up the center to intercept level changes. Kape’s proprioception and speed allow him to make accurate reads in the pocket, but the former RIZIN champ can also find himself on the wrong side of offense due to his sometimes lackadaisical nature.
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Kyoji Horiguchi, UFC Fight Night 265
Between the advantages Horiguchi was able to press in their first fight to the fact that this battle will be taking place in the smaller octagon of the Apex, no one should be shocked if this fight hits the floor on Saturday.
Advertisement
Although Kape is the fighter who used to sport wrestling shoes during their days on the Japanese circuit, I’d argue that Horiguchi is the better wrestler who is more likely to go for takedowns between the two.
Originally coming out of the Krazy Bee camp in Tokyo, Japan, Horiguchi has only further sharpened his wrestling chops since training stateside.
Strong inside of the clinch and against the fence, Horiguchi shows solid head position and situational awareness when working to advance. That said, Horiguchi may find more success with things like singles or open-space shots that he can use to drive his opposition to the fence and floor alike.
Thankfully for Kape, he’s no stranger to the wrestling and scrambling dynamics of a fight.
Advertisement
Even when Kape was coming up in the rings of RIZIN, he was having to both defend and finish takedowns in sub-optimal positions on the regular. Kape has always had an impressive reactive sprawl in open space, but the Angola native has traditionally run into trouble when going for submissions rather than defending the position.
Kape has solid and smooth transitions when operating from topside, but he can get lackadaisical or complacent at times when working from his back (which can be maddening for his supporters considering how hard Kape is capable of scrambling).
Although Kape has come a long way since the submission losses earlier in his career, the jiu-jitsu black belt will need to respect Horiguchi’s skills while still staying urgent.
Kape does well when it comes to using his opponent’s initial momentum against them, but he may have to take a gamble and turtle out to his base if Horiguchi forces him into any negative positions. Not only can Horiguchi deliver hard ground-and-pound, but the Japanese standout has also improved his top pressure and submission acumen since working with American Top Team.
Advertisement
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the fighter who lost the first time around, listing Kape -168 and Horiguchi +136 via FanDuel.
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi prediction, pick
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval – UFC on ESPN 73
Despite my official pick, it’s nice to see this line getting tighter from a betting perspective considering how hard this fight is to call.
Part of me feels like Horiguchi should be favored given both the first fight’s result and the fact that his skills and speed still appear to be firmly intact at 35. That said, I’m not sure how much anyone can take away from their first encounter given both how long ago it was and how much Kape has improved since then.
Advertisement
In fact, Kape seldom switched stances in their first fight, much less gave the southpaw-primary looks that we’ve seen from him more lately (something that I suspect could trouble Horiguchi, who officially stands 1-1 opposite UFC-level lefties). Couple that with the clear performance and preparation upgrades that have come with working alongside Eric Nicksick and company, and I can’t help but give Kape the edge this time around.
Although there’s likely some admitted bias in this pick on the Xtreme Couture side of the equation, let me also acknowledge that Horiguchi has long been one of my favorite fighters who I don’t think I’ve ever picked against until now.
Horiguchi’s grappling, along with his left hook and body kick, will be the tools to watch out for from him in this fight. But even though I believe that it’s dog or pass from a betting perspective, I ultimately suspect that Kape will be one of the few fighters on the planet who is fast enough to both counter and follow Horiguchi on his exits, creating the extended exchanges that have caused trouble for the Japanese fighter in prior losses.
I will be incredibly happy for “The Gooch” if I’m wrong, but the official pick for a fight I don’t want to make a pick for will be for Kape to find his finish by Round 3.
Advertisement
Prediction: Kape inside the distance
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi start time, how to watch
As the main event, Kape and Horiguchi are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:05 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi pick, odds, time: UFC Fight Night 279
