All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Wednesday’s top batter prop bets
Josh Naylor | OVER 0.5 HR (+890)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.33 EV
Mike Yastrzemski | OVER 0.5 HR (+740)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.10 EV
Nick Kurtz | OVER 1.5 TB (+171)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.16 EV
Nick Kurtz | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.67 EV
Jarred Kelenic | UNDER 0.5 H (+121)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.63 EV
Wednesday’s top pitcher prop bets
Miles Mikolas | OVER 3.5 K (+128)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.19 EV
Lance McCullers Jr. | OVER 4.5 K (-161)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.95 EV
Eury Perez | UNDER 2.5 ER (-134)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.09 EV
Bailey Ober | UNDER 3.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.05 EV
Shane McClanahan | UNDER 4.5 K (+125)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.68 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Chicago Cubs Moneyline:
The Cubs have won 13 consecutive home games. (+13.00 Units / 68% ROI). Current odds: -181
Kansas City Royals Team Total OVER:
The Royals have hit this bet in nine straight home contests. (+9.25 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -140
Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The A’s have won this bet in 12 of their last 15 road games. (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI). Current odds: 0.5 @ +100
Texas Rangers 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Rangers have hit the under on this total in eight of their last 10 games. (+5.85 Units / 46% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -110
Minnesota Twins 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER:
The Twins have hit this over in four of their last five contests. (+3.10 Units / 50% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -110
