One month to make the Chase: Who’s safe and who’s running out of time?

There is just one month of racing left in the regular season for the NASCAR Cup Series, as the Chase for the Championship returns for the first time since 2013. The revised format will take the top 16 drivers in the standings and reset their points after the 26th race of the season.

The points leader will begin the final ten-week stretch with 2100 points, second will have 2075, third will begin on 2065, followed by five-point increments down to 16th on 2000.

Iowa Speedway, Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and Daytona International Speedway are the four races that make up the final stretch before the playoffs. Before the season resumes following its final off-week, here is where the battle stands and what the contenders need over the next four races.

Four drivers already locked in: While the era of win and you’re in is over, there are four drivers who have mathematically clinched a spot in the 2026 Chase, even with four races left in the regular season. Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Ty Gibbs have already secured their places.A driver can score a maximum of 76 points in a single race, but that’s only if they sweep the stages, claim the checkered flag and secure the fastest lap bonus.

In a good spot, but a tense battle for 5th: Carson Hocevar, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, and Christopher Bell — These six drivers should be feeling pretty good about their spot inside the Chase, however, less than 30 points cover them in the battle for fifth. The lowest in this fight is Bell in 10th, and he still has a 129-point buffer over the cut-line, while Hocevar in 5th is 158 points up. With that being said, their focus is going to be on the points on the line come the Daytona reset. After that race, the driver in 5th will reset to 2055 points, 45 points out of the championship lead. The driver in 10th will reset to 2030, with each higher position worth an additional five points.

But now for the drivers we really need to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, as their Chase hopes remain up in the air, depending on what happens over the next month of racing…

Good position — Suarez and Byron

Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

Daniel Suarez, P11 +103pts: The 2026 Coke 600 winner has been hanging around between eighth and 11th for the past few months, and while his recent results aren’t that remarkable, it should be enough to keep him inside the top 16. He has been holding steady at or around +100 in recent weeks, at one point slipping down to +91 before quickly bouncing back.

William Byron, P12 +88pts: The Hendrick Motorsports driver is having a surprisingly underwhelming year and is so far, winless. Of course, this No. 24 team is fully capable of running strong enough to avoid any cut-line drama, but Byron is actually in a better place now than he was a few weeks ago. After Sonoma, he was only +57pts, but has since padded that cushion even with some average finishes.

Near the edge but with a cushion — Logano, Wallace, SVG

Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing

Joey Logano, P13, +65pts: The summer run by Logano has been nothing short of incredible. Just five races ago, he was 31 points below the cut-line in 20th place. At Atlanta, he made a big jump and was knocking on the door of the Chase. He then secured a dominant win at North Wilkesboro and a podium finish at Indianapolis, putting the Penske driver 65 points above the cut-line and seven positions higher than he was after Sonoma.

Bubba Wallace, P14 +60pts: Wallace has been very hot and cold in recent weeks, with finishes of 22nd, 6th, 29th, 6th, and 28th in the most recent race at Indianapolis. Atlanta was especially brutal, as Wallace crossed the line second, but a yellow line penalty on the last lap cost him more than 25 points. Wallace has the speed, but he needs to minimize the damage on bad days, instead of walking away with single-digit points. If he can do that, then he has nothing to worry about.

Shane van Gisbergen, P15 +57pts: After a DNF at San Diego, some believed Van Gisbergen’s shot of making the Chase was slipping away despite winning the following week at Sonoma, but the Kiwi has crushed those doubts by leading the way for Trackhouse — on ovals. He finished sixth at Atlanta, nearly won a stage after leading 49 laps at North Wilkesboro, and secured a top five finish there. Even at Indianapolis, where the entire organization struggled, he led the team again with a 16th-place finish. That allowed him to edge further away from the drop zone. With only short ovals and a superspeedway left in the regular season — which are SVG’s strongest ovals — he has a real shot of being the only Trackhouse driver in the postseason.

On the bubble and feeling the heat — Cindric

Austin Cindric, Team Penske

Austin Cindric, P16, +38pts: The Team Penske driver has basically been living on the bubble this year. Cindric has been sitting between 14th and 17th for most of the 2026 season, and he’s been doing a good job of just extracting all he can out of every race. He has finished 13th or 14th in each of the last five races. Those consistent top-15 finishes have kept his pursuers at arm’s length. Looking ahead, we know Penske cars are some of the best at working together and collecting stage points at superspeedways, so Daytona serving as the regular season finale certainly works in his favor. Penske cars are also strong at short ovals (which make up the next three races on the schedule), so if Cindric keeps his nose clean, it’s going to be very tough for the drivers directly behind to bridge the gap.

, Jones, Keselowski

Ryan Preece towed from accident scene, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford

Ryan Preece, P17 -38pts: Like Cindric, Preece has been living on or around the bubble for most of the season. He is also being haunted by a controversial penalty for intentional wrecking, which cost him 25 driver points after Texas. However, that also means that he is only 13 points outside the cut in the owners’ standings, which complicates things. Preece is one of the more consistent drivers in NASCAR, but three consecutive DNFs earlier in the summer cost him dearly. But a string of top 15s to end the regular season won’t be enough to overcome another driver like Cindric who is also very good at putting together decent finishes. Preece is going to have to take advantage of his short track racing prowess over the next few weeks, and show the short-track form that made him a NASCAR Whelen Modified champion. Last year, he earned a top five at Iowa and a pole at Richmond, so he is certainly capable.

Erik Jones, P18 -44pts: The true surprise of this bubble battle is the driver of the Legacy Motor Club No. 43. Jones has not been in contention for a Chase spot in years, and last made it into the top 16 in 2019. But this year, he and the entire LMC team have stepped it up. And while not much has changed in the Jones camp in recent weeks, he is paying the price for the surge in performance by drivers like Logano and Van Gisbergen. Suddenly, Jones is going to have to find a little bit more to bridge the gap. The good news is that the Toyotas have been fast this year, and if it comes down to it, he could surely rely on a friendly push from one of the many Toyotas in safe Chase spots come Daytona.

Brad Keselowski, P19 -50pts: The 2012 Cup champion began the year with a broken leg, and it’s been a so-so season for the RFK Racing co-owner. Unfortunately, he has been sliding backwards all summer after spending the first 15 races of the year in a provisional Chase spot. He does have back-to-back top-10 finishes entering Iowa, but those are also his only top ten finishes over the past three months. That won’t be enough to make up 50 points on the drivers ahead.

Need a big month and a lot of help — McDowell and Chastain

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing

Michael McDowell, P20 -76pts: Two Spire drivers are feeling good about their Chase hopes, but the most senior driver of the team is not. McDowell is just a bit too far out to make up this gap on willpower alone. He’ll need a big step up in performance, and some misfortune for the drivers ahead of him. A bad day from Cindric could be a major help for both him and Chastain, as that may quickly erode 38 points to the cut-line. But as it stands, the No. 71 team has not shown the pace to make up such a margin in four short weeks.

Ross Chastain, P21 -82pts: This is unexpected. Chastain was considered a near-lock for a Chase spot at the start of the year, but it’s been a bitter year for the driver who led Trackhouse for the past several seasons. Even on ovals, Van Gisbergen is outperforming him, and the team has also hurt itself with several costly mistakes. A Texas top ten slipped away due a late-race speeding penalty and a detached wheel denied them another top ten at COTA. Those two issues alone cost Chastain approximately 40 points. One of the most promising races of the year for the No. 1 was Nashville, but it ended prematurely by an exploding brake rotor. He is also another driver that has fallen further behind in recent weeks as Logano and Van Gisbergen rapidly rise, and it’s likely game over for this Trackhouse driver unless something big changes — immediately.

Beyond Chastain, the closest driver is Kaulig Racing’s A.J. Allmendinger, 109 points behind. In this next group, we have several teams/drivers that just aren’t capable of making up such a margin in so few races. The drivers above appear to be the only realistic contenders for the remaining Chase places, and we know the battlefields — Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona. None of these drivers still fighting to make the Chase are likely to contend for the title, but simply making the cut could do a lot for an organization.

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