For the third installment of wild blind dart-throwing predictions of Alabama opponents for the 2026 season, we revisit this fiasco from last season.
GAME 3, SEPT 19: FLORIDA STATE
Head Coach: Mike Norvell (38–34, 22–26 ACC after 6 seasons at FSU)
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2025 record: 5–7 (2–6 in ACC, 13th place)
UA-FSU History: The Crimson Tide has a history of struggling with the Seminoles. The Tide shutout the ‘Noles in 1965 by the score of 21-0. But two seasons later, the two teams tied 37-37. The 3rd ranked 1975 Bama squad needed a 4th quarter intentional safety by FSU and late UA field goal with 0:33 left in the game to eke out a 8-7 victory. That ‘Noles team that would finish 1–10 on the season. All three of those games were in Tuscaloosa against pre-Bobby Bowden led teams. In Nick Saban’s rocky first Alabama season, the Tide traveled to Jacksonville and lost an ugmo game to Bowden 21-14. In Atlanta in 2017, Saban took care of his former LSU OC Jimbo Fisher 24-7 to start the Tide’s march to the National Championship. And then there was last season. A heavily favored Alabama sauntered into Tallahassee last August 30, rolled their helmets out onto the field, and got their backsides whooped for it.
CB 2025 prediction: 8-4; I gave the ’Noles more credit than they were worth last season. However, it was SUCH an easy ACC schedule. Also, I like everyone else in the world figured the Tide would manhandle this blah team.
Looking back: The Seminoles improved somewhat following the dumpster fire season of 2024, but they still stunk. After an absolute faceplant by the Crimson Tide in Game 1 last season, FSU enjoyed a pair of routs over cupcakes. Finding themselves ranked No. 7 in the nation, Norvell’s crew traveled to Charlottesville and lost a heart-breaking double overtime game to Virginia. That defeat was the beginning of a four-game losing streak to Miami-FL and Pitt – both in Tallahassee – and then an inexplicable loss at craptacular Stanford. They rebounded with a wins over Wake and Virginia Tech playing with a lame duck coach, sandwiched between a defeat to Clemson. The ‘Noles needed just one win to get back to a bowl game but finished the season with losses to NC State and rival Florida.
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Returning starters: 2 on offense, 3 on defense, 0 specialists
Key losses: OC Gus Malzahn (retired), NT Darrell Jackson (4th round, NY Jets), OT Micah Pettus (UDFA), S Earl Little Jr. (to Ohio State), C Luke Petitbon (grad), TE Randy Pittman (SMU), OG Richie Leonard (grad), CB Jerry Wilson (UDFA, Chargers), WR Lawayne McCoy (Louisville), QB Tommy Castellanos (grad), RB Gavin Sawchuk (Northwestern; 486 yds, 8 TD), DL James Williams (Texas), DB Edwin Joseph (Ole Miss; 37 tkls, 3 INT, 5 breakups, 1 FF)
Top returnees: Only two returning starters on offense WR Duce Robinson (56 rec, 1,081 yds, 6 TD) and WR Micahi Danzy (571 yds, 3 TD), No. 2 RB Ousmane Kromah (408 yds, 0 TD), DT Mandrell Desir (23 tackles), DT Daniel Lyons (2 sacks, FF), CB Ja’Bril Rawls (40 tkls, 2 breakups, 1 INT, 1 FR), Tim Harris Jr. promoted from pass game coordinator/WR coach to OC
Top newcomers/projected starters: QB Ashton Daniels (Stanford>Auburn), RB Quintrevion Wisner (Texas), TE Desirrio Riles (ECU), four OL and a tight end who are all projected starters, MLB Chris Jones (Southern Miss; 51 solo, 82 asst, 3.5 sack), WLB Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska>UNC), CB Nehemiah Chandler (Georgia Tech>South Alabama)
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Strengths: QB Daniels does not have the raw talented as Tommy Castellanos had, but he is less likely to meltdown/check out when the calendar flips to October… WR brings in experienced receivers… RB might be okay but they are not very deep after the top two… Chris Jones at MLB could be special (I kinda wish Bama had gone after him, but that is a post for another day)… Run defense should be solid….
Weaknesses: Replacing the entire offensive line plus tight end… Lotsa newbies including coaches… Pas rush might be an issue… The secondary could be shaky… New kicker and punter… Fans will not be patient if things go to @#$% again…
Outlook: In 2023, Norvell led the ’Noles to an undefeated regular season and an ACC Championship. A great accomplishment, but BOY was that schedule weak. Because of that factor, they were left out of the four-team College Football Playoff. Instead of getting pisst off and beating UGA in the Orange Bowl to prove they belonged, they threw a temper tantrum (Hello, Notre Dame). From that point, it has been a downhill slide. FSU was utterly destroyed by the Blldogs 63-3. For an encore, they went 2-10 in 2024 with a 1-7 ACC record. Last year was a slight improvement at 5-7 but not what the Seminole nation has come to expect under Bowden and Jimbo. There is no doubt Norvell is on the hot seat. Bowl eligibility is within reach this season, but that may not be enough. Eight wins probably fends off the villagers for another year. But that seems like a tall order.
Odds
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6.5 Wins Total per FanDuel
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Alabama by -15.5 per DraftKings
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2026 FLORIDA STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE:
Once again, the Seminoles face Miami-FL, Louisville, SMU, and Clemson, but miss out on Notre Dame and fast-rising Georgia Tech.
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Sat, Aug 29 vs New Mexico State – W
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Sat, Sep 19 @ Alabama – L
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Sat, Sep 26 vs Central Arkansas – W
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Sat, Oct 3 vs Virginia – W – Home field
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Fri, Oct 9 @ Louisville – L – Roadie
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Sat, Oct 17 @ Miami-FL – L
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Sat, Oct 31 vs Clemson – L
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Sat, Nov 21 vs NC State – W – Home
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Fri, Nov 27 vs Florida – L
Only poverty teams play on Friday. How sad.
UPCOMING ALABAMA SCHEDULE PREVIEWS:
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Sat, Sep 19 vs Florida State
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Sat, Oct 3 @ Mississippi State
[Working on getting polls back. In the meantime, give us your picks in Comments.]
