This weekend (Sat., July 18, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma for UFC OKC. Unfortunately, one of the best fights of the card imploded just las week when Kevin Holland withdrew from his scheduled clash with top rising prospect Jacobe Smith. Fortunately, the high-profile main event pitting former Middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis versus longtime Welterweight king Kamaru Usman remains intact. The remaining card is a little disappointing for a non-Apex event yet should still provide some excitement.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event:
Middleweight: Jared Cannonier (+235) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-320)
Best Win for Cannonier? Sean Strickland For Duncan? Roman Dolidze
Current Streak: Cannonier lost his last bout, while Duncan has won four straight
X-Factor: Cannonier is 42 years old
How these two match up: Every Middleweight fight has the potential to be an awful slog, but this should be a fun collision of strikers.
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Cannonier, somehow, is still performing really well. He’s lost three of his last four, sure, but those defeats came to the division’s elite and Michael Page (perhaps the most unique challenge in MMA). He’s still explosive and well-conditioned, and Cannonier hasn’t shown any major issues with durability or failure to pull the trigger, which are usually what disappear first in older fighters.
Duncan, meanwhile, is a great example of a little confidence making all the difference. Early in his UFC career, “CLD” was clearly talented yet couldn’t really open up for fear of the takedown. As soon as he settled into the Octagon and shored up his defense, Duncan started demolishing opponents with spinning strikes and sprinting up the ladder.
He’s now a lot of fun to watch.
This is one of those fights where momentum just feels like the most major factor. There’s no glaring edge on paper that justifies Duncan’s status as a 3-1 favorite, yet I will be picking him to win. He has the physical gifts to match Cannonier’s raw power, and Duncan’s kickboxing seems more fluid between the two. I expect Cannonier will try to slow him down with low kicks and clinch work, but that’s going to be a difficult game to play given the 12-year age gap.
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Two years ago, Cannonier probably keeps the gate. Nowadays, Christian Leroy Duncan takes a step closer to a Top 10 ranking.
Prediction: Duncan via decision
Lightweight: Chase Hooper (-390) vs. Mitch Ramirez (+280)
Best Win for Hooper? Jim Miller For Ramirez? Aireon Tavarres
Current Streak: Both men lost their last two
X-Factor: Hooper has lost two straight via KO as a huge favorite
How these two match up: This oughta be a rebound fight for Hooper.
Hooper is a very slick grappler with aggressive, high-volume kickboxing to accompany his ground game. It must be asked, however, if the anti-Hooper playbook has now been written and published. His last two opponents smoked Hooper simply by retreating, let him reach forward with his strikes, and then obliterating the lanky grappler with counter shots and superior athleticism. Conversely, Ramirez is a heavy hitter still looking for his first UFC victory. The 33-year-old is a decent puncher, but thus far, the rest of his game hasn’t really held up to the elevated level of competition.
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Given the superiority of Hooper’s grappling, this should be a fairly one-sided affair. Ramirez may hit hard, but he doesn’t have the strength and athleticism of Alexander Hernandez or Lance Gibson Jr, the men who recently dispatched Hooper. The consecutive knockout losses are definitely concerning, but Hooper has historically ran over this level of competition.
Barring a sudden level up from Ramirez, “The Dream” likes returns to the win column with a strangle.
Prediction: Hooper via submission
Strawweight: Tabatha Ricci (+285) vs. Fatima Kline (-400)
Best Win for Ricci? Amanda Ribas For Kline? Angela Hill
Current Streak: Ricci lost her last bout, whereas Kline has won three straight
X-Factor: Ricci is a tiny Strawweight
How these two match up: These odds are a little wild since it’s a big step up in competition for Kline.
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It’s not easy being an undersized grappler, and yet Ricci gets it done more often than not. She’s a really slick Judoka and grappler, able to toss and control larger opponents thanks to excellent technique. Kline, meanwhile, is one of the division’s hottest up-and-comers. The 26-year-old has obvious athletic ability to compliment her jiu-jitsu black belt, and her standup has improved quite a bit in just four UFC fights.
Kline lost her UFC debut by getting consistently outwrestled by Jasmine Jasudavicius. That’s a concern against Ricci, who generally excels at controlling foes from the clinch and in top position. That said, there’s a serious difference in size and physicality between 5’1” Ricci and Jasudavicius, who is one of the bigger and stronger women at Flyweight.
Furthermore, Kline is a young talent who has clearly improved in the two years since that loss. She should have the scrambling to work back to her feet if taken down, and she’s generally a lot more capable of doing damage. As such, I expect the first round to be competitive, but Kline takes over as her offense and pace start to take effect.
Prediction: Kline via decision
Featherweight: Tommy McMillen (-128) vs. Alberto Montes (+100)
Best Win for McMillen? Manolo Zecchini For Montes? Ricky Turcios
Current Streak: Both men recently won their UFC debut
X-Factor: It’s a step up in competition for both men!
How these two match up: This is a really intriguing clash between talented newcomers.
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Multiple things can be true about McMillen at once: he can be sloppy and wild and forget his defense. He is also very clearly a natural athlete with solid timing who is huge for the division. There are obvious pros and cons to his fighting style, but a 17-fight win streak between his amateur and pro career cannot be ignored — “Tommy Gun” has talent. Montes doesn’t have the hype of his opponent, but he’s about as accomplished. His last five wins come via anaconda or d’arce choke, which is especially wild because the 5’7” Featherweight doesn’t have particularly long arms! Outside of the front choke, Montes boxes well and throws nasty combinations with real power.
Big picture, this is a battle of size and athleticism vs. cleaner technique. I don’t mean to imply that McMillen has no skill or that Montes isn’t an athlete; that’s just how they stack up head-to-head. McMillen is the more natural knockout artist and throws a greater variety of dangerous shots, but the cleaner mechanics and form of Montes will make him dangerous in exchanges as well.
Montes is a popular underdog pick amongst those in the know, and I understand the line of reasoning. There’s a lot of size to overlook, however, and McMillen has proven himself capable in a three-round brawl. If these two are throwing down — and given McMillen’s style, they will — Montes is going to have to stop him early on. Otherwise, McMillen’s range, volume, and variety are going to be a problem.
The McMillen hype train implodes at some point … but not yet.
Prediction: McMillen via knockout
