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Projecting Texas A&M’s 2026 season using ESPN FPI

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Texas A&M’s 2026 season will kick off on Saturday, Sept. 5, as the Aggies will host Missouri State before hosting Arizona State in Week 2, and after making the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history last season, coach Mike Elko’s third year at the helm could be his best, despite facing one of the tougher SEC schedules, especially on the road.

This offseason, Elko made several changes to his coaching staff, elevating Holmon Wiggins as the new offensive coordinator/play-caller, while Lyle Hemphill replaces Jay Bateman as Texas A&M’s defensive coordinator. Wiggins’ lack of play-calling experience will be a national talking point, but with redshirt junior quarterback Marcel Reed returning for his second full starting season, A&M’s offense should pick up where it left off.

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Still, replacing four starting offensive linemen could result in taking a step back if this new group does not develop early chemistry, but after landing four SEC starting offensive linemen, paired with plenty of depth from the 2025 signing class, OL coach Adam Cushing will look to rotate early in the year to find the best starting group.

Last week, ESPN’s annual Football Power Index Rankings were released, including FPI predictions for all 12 of Texas A&M’s regular-season games, starting with Missouri State and ending with the regular-season finale vs. Texas in late November. On its face, Texas A&M is favored in all but three games, with a predicted 9-3 finish.

ESPN FPI predictions for Texas A&M’s 2026 season

  • Texas A&M (98.2%) vs. Missouri State (1.8%)

  • Texas A&M (90.3%) vs. Arizona State (9.7%)

  • Texas A&M (89.5%) vs. Kentucky (10.5%)

  • Texas A&M (43.4%) at LSU (56.6%)

  • Texas A&M (90.3%) vs. Arkansas (9.7%)

  • Texas A&M (66.0%) at Missouri (34.0%)

  • Texas A&M (99.0) vs. Citadel (1.0%)

  • Texas A&M (41.8%) at Alabama (58.2%)

  • Texas A&M (69.5%) at South Carolina (30.5%)

  • Texas A&M (72.%) vs. Tennessee (28.0%)

  • Texas A&M (50.1%) at Oklahoma (49.9%)

  • Texas A&M (34.9%) vs. Texas (65.1%)

Several college football analysts have predicted the Aggies to finish 9-3 or 10-2, and given the five road games that will likely define A&M’s chances to make it back to the CFP, defeating LSU and Missouri, and staying undefeated before facing Alabama on the road will be critical heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

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This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: Projecting Texas A&M’s 2026 season using ESPN FPI



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