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While the spread may suggest it, Alabama and Texas Tech will meet in the NCAA Tournament in a game that’s not a coin flip.
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Alabama remains without Aden Holloway, and Tech has the defensive profile to keep the Tide from rolling — literally.
My Texas Tech vs. Alabama predictions and March Madness picks break down why I like Texas Tech to head to the Sweet 16 on Sunday, March 22.
Texas Tech vs Alabama prediction
Who will win Texas Tech vs Alabama?
Texas Tech: They put a chokehold on Alabama in transition and will keep them from scoring regularly in the halfcourt. Nate Oats schemes well enough for a long portion of the game, but eventually the damn breaks and Alabama can’t defend well enough on the other end.
Texas Tech vs Alabama best bet: Texas Tech moneyline (-127)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders’ attack-and-kick offense ranks No. 1 in the country. Every drive-and-kick is producing an open look, and Tech has the shooters to make the Alabama Crimson Tide pay all afternoon.
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Alabama wants to play in transition, but doing so without Aden Holloway forces the team to rely even more on transition plays, limiting their halfcourt options. The Red Raiders’ top-tier transition defense, which allows just 1 point per possession, could be a deciding factor.
Given Alabama’s shorthanded roster, I don’t think they can score enough in the halfcourt to keep pace.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Alabama is yet again a team with one of the highest 3-point rates in the country (fifth nationally), while Texas Tech allows the 47th-lowest 3-point rate in college basketball.
Texas Tech vs Alabama same-game parlay
One reason Texas Tech has one of the best attack-and-kick offenses in the country is that they have one of the best 3-point shooters in the land.
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Donovan Atwell enters this game shooting over 45% from deep on high volume. Alabama has struggled against spray-outs all season, so this pairing fits nicely.
Texas Tech vs Alabama SGP
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Donovan Atwell Over 3.5 threes
Our Big Dance SGP: Anderson Gets in the Act
With both teams capable of putting up points, my projection of 163 signaled value on the Under.
I paired that with Christian Anderson exceeding his assists total, as he should get plenty of opportunities on attack-and-kick threes, tying back to Tech’s offensive strengths.
Texas Tech vs Alabama SGP
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Donovan Atwell Over 3.5 threes
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Christian Anderson Over 7.5 assists
Texas Tech vs Alabama odds
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Spread: Texas Tech -1 | Alabama +1
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Moneyline: Texas Tech -120 | Alabama +100
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Over/Under: Over 165 | Under 165
Texas Tech vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the 1H Under in 11 of its last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Alabama.
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How to watch Texas Tech vs Alabama
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Location |
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL |
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Date |
Sunday, March 22, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
9:45 p.m. ET |
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TV |
TBS |
Texas Tech vs Alabama key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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