During Will Dawkins and Michael Winger’s introductory press conference in June 2023, the duo outlined a multi-year plan to resurrect a dormant franchise in need of a major reset.
After years of chasing NBA titles with a play-in roster, Wizards ownership promised a different approach — one built on trust between an owner tired of mediocrity and a front office eager to build a perennial contender in the nation’s capital.
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“The eventual expectation is that we’re gonna build a generational contender,” Winger said in 2023. “There’s no excuse for the lone NBA team in D.C. not to be contending for championships. Eventually, we’re gonna hoist a trophy here in D.C.”
Winger said his staff had “full autonomy” to reset the team. And reset it did.
Three 60-loss seasons, four lottery picks and several savvy trades later, only one player — Anthony Gill — remains from the roster Dawkins and Winger inherited.
But the rebuild isn’t complete.
One decision stands between three years of tanking and a potential title contender. It’s a decision the Wizards are lucky to have, yet desperate to get right.
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The prospect Washington selects with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft must carry the weight that selection bears and more.
They must want the ball when the game is on the line. They must possess the relentless drive to be great that is often the catalyst for legendary careers.
Most importantly, they must become the star the Wizards need to take them from a mere playoff participant to a feared title contender.
That player is AJ Dybantsa.
Why the Wizards should select Dybantsa at No. 1
There are several important metrics when evaluating NBA prospects, such as height, scoring ability, defensive impact and character.
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When it comes to the top pick, however, ceiling trumps all. That’s because when prospects are so closely aligned in the aforementioned categories like Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer are, upside is the greatest tiebreaker.
While Boozer has the most polished game and Peterson is the silkiest scorer, Dybantsa possesses the skills and measurables of a future MVP candidate.
During his lone season at BYU, the 19-year-old forward scored a Division-I best 25.5 points per game while shooting 51% from the field. Dybantsa used his 7-foot wingspan to grab nearly seven rebounds per contest. His 3.7 assists per game showed a willingness to move the basketball into prime scoring positions when defenses loaded up to stop his scoring.
As the modern NBA shifted to a perimeter-oriented game, the college game followed. Most prospects in this year’s class reflect that shift, relying on 3-point shooting as their premier offensive threat.
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But not Dybantsa, who owns a smooth mid-range jumper and puts relentless rim pressure on whoever dares stand in his way.
At 6-foot-10 in shoes, Dybantsa can rise and shoot over almost any defender — a rare trait seen in scorers like Kevin Durant and Victor Wembanyama.
It’s why he prefers the mid-range jumper to the more popular 3-pointer. It’s also why he hits that shot at such an efficient clip.
Dybantsa shot 46% on mid-range jumpers as a freshman, which ranked in the 91st percentile among fellow prospects, according to draftballr.com. His eight mid-range shots per 100 possessions ranked in the 94th percentile.
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This play against UConn, where Dybantsa gets to his spot, rises over an impeccable contest from 6-foot-7 Jaylin Stewart and sinks a mid-range jumper, encapsulates his talent.
Dybantsa vs. Peterson
Dybantsa and Peterson both project as offensive engines poised for long careers filled with thousands of buckets. But how they project to score those points differs dramatically.
During his freshman season at Kansas, Peterson primarily operated on the perimeter and in the intermediate scoring areas with 3-balls and floaters. Dybantsa did the opposite, instead relying on layups, dunks and mid-range jumpers for the bulk of his buckets.
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The key separator lies in their ability to get downhill and finish at the rim — an area Dybantsa dominated while Peterson faltered.
Dybantsa shot 72.3% at the rim, which ranks first among ESPN’s consensus lottery picks, on more than eight rim attempts per 100 possessions. Of Dybantsa’s 604 shot attempts, 153 (25.3%) came inside of three feet.
The offensive-minded forward can draw contact as well. He attempted 13.1 free throws per 100 possessions, narrowly trailing Boozer’s 13.2 and Caleb Wilson’s 14.1, and finished his freshman campaign with a 49% free-throw rate.
Dybantsa’s 296 free-throw attempts led all Division-I players and more than doubled Peterson’s 132.
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Peterson shot just 59.7% at the rim on 5.8 attempts per 100 possessions and finished with a 37.1% free-throw rate — nearly 12 percentage points behind Dybantsa. Furthermore, 41% of his shots came from 21 feet or more away from the basket and just 15% came from three feet or less.
Despite playing off ball at Kansas, Peterson’s camp believes he’s a point guard at the NBA level. But his low assist numbers — he averaged just 1.9 helpers per game compared to Dybantsa’s 3.7 — and subpar 1.o assist-to-turnovers ratio reflect a guard far from traditional NBA point guard standards.
His constant cramping issues and other nagging injuries, which caused him to miss 11 of his team’s 35 games, were certainly a factor. However, those health issues also represent the main concern for several evaluators who question Peterson’s long-term viability.
Peterson has Dybantsa beat in 3-point shooting and most defensive metrics. And at times, the Kansas product made college basketball appear too easy.
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But Dybantsa’s long frame, freakish leaping ability and elite athleticism provide hope that his defense could dramatically improve with increased film study and reps next to top defenders like Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly and Kyshawn George.
And his mid-range talent and relentless rim pressure, combined with his availability — he missed zero games at BYU — athleticism and upside as an All-NBA forward who could one day lead the NBA in scoring, give him the edge over Peterson.
Dybantsa vs. Boozer
Draft Express’ Jonathan Givony reported that nearly every NBA team has Boozer atop their draft board. And for good reason.
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The Duke forward dominated nearly every matchup with his bruising 6-foot-8, 253-pound frame. His soft touch around the rim, seasoned footwork and smooth outside jumper posed near-impossible tasks for most defenses.
But when games got tight, and Duke needed a bucket, Boozer often reverted to his post game, one heavily reliant on bullying his way into the paint against smaller defenders, trying to force the officials to call a foul if his contested layup didn’t fall.
That approach is less likely to work in the NBA.
There’s no denying Boozer projects as a terrific professional with All-Star potential. He’ll likely average 20 points and 10 rebounds and drive winning in any situation he’s drafted into.
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The issue is that he projects as more of a complementary piece than a No. 1 option. And for a Wizards squad filled with complementary pieces, Dybantsa better fits what they’re missing: An offensive engine with elite shot creation tools that can get a bucket when everyone knows who’s getting the ball.
The numbers tell the story.
Dybantsa ranked in the 99th percentile of Draftballr’s age-adjusted offensive box score impact metric despite a 33.5% usage rate, which ranked in the 100th percentile. BYU continued to pile more onto his plate, which only raised his level of play.
When BYU’s second leading scorer, Richie Saunders, tore his ACL on Feb. 14, the Cougars’ reliance on Dybantsa skyrocketed. Defenses gameplanned to stop him at all costs, and even that wasn’t enough.
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Dybantsa scored 20 or more points in every game to close the season, including three contests with 35 or more and a 40-point showing in Round 1 of the Big 12 Tournament.
While Washington’s young core has received praise for its two-way impact, outside shooting and tremendous upside, one question has lingered: Who would step up as the team’s go-to scorer in key moments?
Enter Dybantsa, who, despite being the centerpiece of opponents’ game plans, averaged 31.0 points on 52.4% FG in three Big 12 Tournament games and dropped 35 points in BYU’s lone NCAA Tournament contest.
In big games and season-defining moments, Dybantsa doesn’t just want the ball. He demands it. And when he does, he meets the moment.
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Just ask Texas coach Sean Miller, who seemingly ran out of adjustments in trying to stop BYU’s offensive engine.
“I don’t think we can [stop Dybantsa],” Miller said during his team’s NCAA Tournament victory over BYU. “There’s just very little you can do.”
Addressing the shooting concerns
The major question mark surrounding Dybantsa is his 33.1% 3-point clip, which ranks third-worst among Draftballer’s top-20 prospects.
But one collegiate season with poor outside shooting numbers doesn’t mean a prospect can never develop a 3-point jumper, nor does it mean that prospect can’t become one of the league’s premier scorers. Especially when that prospect possesses the athleticism, speed, rim pressure and two-point game that Dybantsa does.
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Just ask John Wall, the Wizards’ No. 1 pick in 2010 who shot 32.5% from 3-point range at Kentucky before a lengthy NBA career that included five All-Star appearances. Or Derrick Rose, who shot 33% from three at Memphis before winning MVP as a 22-year-old with the Chicago Bulls.
Anthony Edwards was selected with the No. 1 pick despite shooting 29.4% from 3-point range at Georgia. Five years later, he made an NBA-best 320 threes at a 39.5% clip.
Other NBA All-Stars who shot sub-33% from three in college include Russell Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Dwayne Wade and Rajon Rondo. What do those players have in common? They relentlessly attacked the rim, and when defenders took away their drive, they relied on an efficient mid-range game.
Dybantsa’s outside shooting numbers fall significantly behind those of Peterson (38.2%) and Boozer (39.1%). But other indicators, like his efficient mid-range jumper and touch in intermediate areas with floaters and push shots, showcase a shooting touch poised to stretch beyond the 3-point line with good coaching and lots of repetition.
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The missing piece
Three years of losing have positioned Washington to achieve its ultimate goal: finding a centerpiece to build a perennial contender around.
Washington has done so in the inverse, spending the first three years accumulating talent to surround that centerpiece with.
Sarr is one of the league’s best young rim protectors. George and Coulibaly possess two-way potential as complementary offensive pieces who star on defense. Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington are 40% 3-point shooters who pose a threat from long range the second they cross halfcourt.
Will Riley flashed his shifty scoring ability in the latter months of an impressive rookie campaign. Justin Champagnie simply impacts winning on one of the league’s best contracts. The latest additions, Trae Young and Anthony Davis, add a veteran presence necessary for young teams to thrive.
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It appears Washington is just one piece away. Winger said the Wizards aren’t looking for a “savior” with their top selection. But it’s no secret they lack a true No. 1 option.
Peterson has All-Star potential. And Boozer could become one of the league’s most dominant interior forces.
But Dybantsa possesses the greatest potential to become everything this rebuild was started for and more: A prospect with MVP upside, the missing No. 1 option to a puzzle that’s one piece away from its final form.
