Klay Thompson is heading to Miami. Peyton Watson is going to Cleveland on a sign-and-trade. With Watson locked up, James Harden has agreed to re-sign with the Cavaliers. DeMar DeRozan will play next season with the Denver Nuggets.
The free agent market is thinning out, but there are still three very interesting names still unsigned. While two of them are restricted free agents, there are plenty of questions surrounding them now. Let’s get into where things stand with Jalen Duren, Jonathan Kuminga and Bennedict Mathurin.
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Jalen Duren (restricted)
Detroit is trying to walk a fine line with Jalen Duren: Save money but keep the All-NBA big man happy and in the Motor City. So far, it has not gone well, and the question becomes, will it backfire?
So far, negotiations between the sides have been “noxious,” as one league source put it to NBC Sports. ESPN’s Vincent Goodwill put it this way recently on “The Hoop Collective” podcast: “There’s certain things that a player should not have to hear. You know what I mean? There’s certain things that a player does not have to hear when the messaging comes back about why you’re not getting what you believe to be your value.”
Duren believes he is a max player. While internally the Pistons may think Ausar Thompson is their second most important player (he is also extension-eligible), in practice Duren was the second-best player on a 60-win team last season, averaging 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game while playing elite defense in the paint. He was a first-time All-Star and All-NBA player, a guy who has strong on-court chemistry with Cade Cunningham. This team does not win 60 games last season without him. The All-NBA nod makes Duren eligible for a “Rose rule” contract of up to 30% of this season’s salary cap (a max of five years, $287 million), although he will likely be happy with the 25% max of $239 million over five years (what Victor Wembanyama took this summer).
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All that ignores the playoffs. When things got physical and intense in the playoffs, Duren was a shell of the guy from the regular season. Duren averaged just 10.2 points and 8.5 rebounds per game and had a negative plus/minus for the postseason. By midway through the second-round series against Cleveland, Duren was finding himself benched in key minutes for third-string center Paul Reed, who was much more of a positive impact. Pistons fans were begging for less Duren and more Reed.
Because of that performance, the Pistons reportedly are offering something in the lower $30 million-a-year range. Duren’s camp will rightfully push back, noting that is what the Lakers just paid Walker Kessler ($32.5 million a season average), and he hasn’t accomplished anything yet. Alperen Sungun got five years, $185 million from Houston a season ago ($37 million a season average), and the Pistons are offering less.
Duren’s only other option is to play for the $9.6 million qualifying offer, which would make him an unrestricted free agent next season and give him veto power over any trades. However, that would be a huge risk for Duren. Even at the Pistons’ “lowball” offer, that’s something in the ballpark of $130 million over four years — that’s generational wealth and a lot of money to leave on the table at age 22, risking a severe fluke injury or a bad season that takes money off the table next summer.
The sides have until the start of training camp to figure this out, but the concern is that the bad blood from these negotiations will spill into the season no matter the outcome.
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There should be a middle ground. Something for five years in the $190-$200 million range seems fair considering Duren’s value but playoff struggles, but we’ll see where this lands. And how much bad blood there is when all is said and done.
Jonathan Kuminga
Kuminga’s options are increasingly limited. With Watson headed to Cleveland, that sign-and-trade destination is off the table for the athletic wing and shrinks his choices.
Two teams are at the table: The Los Angeles Lakers and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Which team is in the driver’s seat depends on which source one talks to.
Ultimately, Kuminga is stuck because it’s highly unlikely he’s going to get the money he wants — Atlanta did not pick up his $24.3 million team option and Kuminga initially hoped for a deal in the ballpark, or at least above the mid-level exception. He turned down the Lakers’ early offer of two years, $20 million, with a key role on the team to boost his value and a deal that gets him back on the market quickly, but Kuminga reportedly rejected that because he thought it was a lowball. Now, he might be lucky to get that.
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The Lakers and Hawks talked sign-and-trade earlier this summer, but those talks stalled out because Atlanta is not looking to add salary (it is only $3.8 million below the luxury tax line, and Kuminga currently counts as zero for them). Or, at least Atlanta is not interested without a quality draft pick as an incentive, and the Lakers would not go there. Also, Atlanta currently has 17 players under contract heading into training camp and needs to shed at least two, not add players.
The Lakers and Hawks are talking sign-and-trade again, with guard Jaden Hardey reportedly in the conversation (he makes $6 million this season), while previously that was Jared Vanderbilt ($12.4 million).
Kuminga’s other issue? Any sign-and-trade contract has to be for at least three years. That would lock him into a deal he believes is below his market value for longer than he wants.
Which is why Minnesota sits there, with $6 million of its mid-level exception that he can walk right into, no sign-and-trade. He’d get to play with LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst put it this way on his Hoop Collective Podcast:
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“Watch the Wolves in the next couple days… It’s still open, there’s still a window for the Lakers to do a Kuminga sign-and-trade. A sign-and-trade has to be three years. Now that these other doors are closing, the Timberwolves can close that deal and sign Kuminga.”
Kuminga reportedly likes the idea of playing for the Lakers — who would start him at the four — as a better fit.
But is he? Kuminga wants to be a scorer, he’s wanted the ball in his hands. In Los Angeles, where Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have the ball, will he fit into the system and play a role? It’s the same question in Minnesota. Before you say “of course he will,” remember that clash was at the core of his issues with Steve Kerr in Golden State.
Bennedict Mathurin (restricted)
This is a much more complex situation, in part because of the limbo the Clippers are in with the Aspiration investigation ongoing and, with that, the Kawhi Leonard-to-Toronto trade, which is hung up.
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Last season, Mathurin showed his potential as a scorer after coming to the Clippers from Indiana in the Ivica Zubac trade, averaging 17.4 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in the 26 games he played. He also showed his weaknesses, shooting 20.7% from 3-point range, and with nearly as many turnovers as assists.
The Clippers have said they are interested in bringing him back (at a price they like), but their actions have said he is not a priority. If/when the Leonard trade goes through, the Clippers will have 17 contracts on the roster (although Cam Christie‘s is non-guaranteed), they already have to trade or waive players a couple of players before the season starts, and that is without Mathurin in the fold.
There have been teams poking around a sign-and-trade — Chicago, New Orleans, Milwaukee, Detroit and Dallas have been rumored — but nothing has come of that so far.
Mathurin’s best option could be to play for his $8.8 million qualifying offer and become a free agent next offseason. Unlike Duren, Mathurin isn’t leaving hundreds of millions on the table doing so, he can prove he deserves more and will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. However, that comes with a risk. Playing for the qualifying offer last season worked out for Quentin Grimes (signed for four years, $60 million with the Lakers), but Cam Thomas did as well and is without a contract this season as of now.
Mathurin doesn’t have to make that call until Oct. 1, so he can let things play out and then make a call, but that option is on the table.
