UFC 328’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Khamzat vs. Strickland

UFC 328 is live this weekend (Sat., May 9, 2026) at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ., streaming live online via Paramount+. Just like the last PLE (premium live event, it’s what we’re calling these nowadays), this one is a stacked event. And we’ve got two title fights up top this time.

The main event is Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland for the UFC Middleweight title. Chimaev is staking his undefeated record against Strickland, who is looking to become a two time champ. There’s been plenty of chatter and seeming bad blood in this match-up. A lot of it sounds like wolf tickets to me, though.

The co-main event is Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira for the UFC Flyweight title. Van needs to win this to prove his legitimacy as a champ. He’s got his hands full with the grappling wizard Taira, though.

There’s some great match-ups to round out the UFC 328 main card with Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley and King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens.

The “Prelims” are pretty good this weekend, too. We’ve got Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz, Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov and Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki. There’s also an appearance from Jim Miller. He fights Jared Gordon.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 328 Main Card Money Line Odds

Khamzat Chimaev (-575) vs. Sean Strickland (+425)

Chimaev won the belt in his last fight. His win over Dricus Du Plessis, by decision, might have been one of the most one-sided decisions in UFC history (certainly when it comes to title fights and most definitely when it comes to challengers defeating champions). Before Borz played concrete blanket with DDP, he beat Robert Whittaker by, literally, breaking his face (see it here). Chimaev is 15-0 and 9-0 in UFC with wins over Kamaru Usman, Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns.

Strickland was masterful last time out. He picked Anthony Hernandez apart before finishing him with a massive knee to the body (see it here). That win came after his ho-hum unanimous decision loss to Du Plessis a year prior. That was his second loss to Du Plessis. The first cost him the title he inexplicably won from Israel Adesanya back in 2023.

Is this just going to be Chimaev vs. DDP all over again? The oddsmakers certainly seem to think so.

This is a tough fight for me because I’ve doubted, and been proved wrong, by both these fighters. I thought Chimaev would have a tough time with Whittaker — then Chimaev ran through him. I thought Hernandez would destroy Strickland — then Strickland put down one of the most impressive, from a strategic and technical standpoint, performances we’ve ever seen.

I guess now I’m doubting Strickland again. But it’s not because I don’t have respect for him as a fighter. He’s truly excellent at what he does and what he does is good enough to beat 90 percent of the Middleweights on the planet. Chimaev just feels like he’s in that top ten percent, though. He seems special.

His wrestling is so strong and so smothering, that it just doesn’t seem like there’s anyone in the division who can stand up to it (or get up from it). This is a boring pick, but I think Chimaev runs forwards, swats Strickland’s knee to the side and then lays on him for however long he feels like.

The big question for me is whether Chimaev will, again, favor position over submission? Or will he try and finish this fight?

When you listen to all the talk around this fight, with guns and all that nonsense, it seems like these two are going to tear each other’s heads off. I don’t buy any of it for a second, though. I think these guys are just selling the fight. People have compared this to Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov, but I don’t think Chimaev is as emotional as Nurmagomedov and I don’t think Strickland has said anything close to as triggering as what McGregor said.

I think Chimaev will take plenty of pleasure in beating Strickland the way he beat Du Plessis and I think, once it’s over, they are gonna high five and hug it out.

From a betting standpoint, this query has me looking at the round totals. We’re set at 3.5 rounds. The over is +120 and the under is -154. I like the over, for reasons stated above, so it’s hard for me to turn down that plus money. I’m pretty conservative when it comes to this kind of thing, though.

There are alternative round props you can take on this fight. Over 2.5 rounds is -120. Over 1.5 rounds is -225. For my best bet I’m going to go with over 2.5 rounds. I’ll make a more specific pick in my long shot section, though.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-120)

Joshua Van (+142) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-170)

Van ‘won’ the UFC title in December. That’s after Alexandre Pantoja’s arm snapped during an innocuous takedown attempt. The situation around the win didn’t stop Van and his team parading around the cage like they’d knocked Pantoja out in 16 seconds, though. Van did rightfully earn his chance to fight Pantoja, after a six fight winning streak that included beatdowns of Brandon Royval and Bruno Silva. He’s 16-2 as a pro with his only losses being a shock uppercut KO to the mercurial Charles Johnson (see it here) and a submission loss to the veteran Damon Jackson back when he was just a babe.

Taira earned his shot at Van by dismantling Brandon Moreno in December. He’s the first man to ever finish Moreno with strikes (see it here). Before that he beat short notice opponent Hyun Sung Park with a face crank (see it here). Before those sensational victories, Taira lost a close and very exciting fight with Royval (by split decision). The Royval loss was the first loss of the 26 year-old’s career.

Van is in that rare group of guys who are underdogs in their first title defence. And I can see why.

Van’s win over Royval was fantastic, but his streak leading up to that includes a lot of midling guys at Flyweight. I have a lot more questions around how good he is and what he can do than I do with Taira.

Taira’s record also leaves a little to be desired. He’s 2-1 against ranked fighters. The other ranked fighter he beat was Alex Perez. Even so, I feel like we’ve seen more levels to Taira’s game and can recognize that he has elite grappling and is pretty decent on the feet. Van’s striking is very hard to deal with, for its volume, though I don’t know if we’re ready to call him an elite striker yet. And we have very little information about how good he is on the ground (I suspect he’s nowhere near as good as Taira is).

Van has good takedown defense, but his 81 percent on paper is inflated because Rei Tsuruya spammed low quality takedown attempts at him and went 4-21 when they met. Two of Tsuruya’s takedowns came in the first round. Durden got Van down twice in the first round, too (he went 2-8 for the entire fight). He was taken down in the first round by Felipe Bunes and Zhagas Zhumagulov, too.

If the key to Van’s takedown defense is to batter people on the feet to slow down their later attempts, then that’s going to spell trouble in this fight. If Taira gets him down in the first round, I don’t know if we see a second.

The round total for this one is 3.5. I like the under, which is -105, because I do think Taira is going to get those early takedowns and I do think he’s going to get a submission. Taira by submission is +165. That needs to be higher to get me interested, though. I’m going to stick with Taira on the moneyline here and look for a submission prop bet in my long shot section.

Best bet: Tatsuro Taira moneyline (-170)

Alexander Volkov (-185) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+154)

You have to feel for Volkov.

He was the victim of an absolute robbery in December, 2024 at UFC 310. He fought a super smart fight against Ciryl Gane and everyone thought he had earned one of the best decision wins of his career. Two of the three judges didn’t see it that way, though. After that, Gane got his fight with Tom Aspinall and was subsequently booked to fight Alex Pereira at the White House. After the robbery Volkov was booked against Jailton Almeida. He took the decision over Almeida (thanks to a little cosmic karma).

Cortes-Acosta was on a mission to make Heavyweight fun again last year. Previously, Salsa Boy had a reputation for being a boring fighter. But in 2025 he fought five times, finishing Ryan Spann (see it here), Ante Delija (see it here) and Shamil Gaziev (see it here). His only loss was to Sergei Pavlovich, where he showed off that he might have the hardest chin in the promotion. In January he beat the brakes off Derrick Lewis (see it here).

It’s kind of tough to bet against Cortes-Acosta with this run he’s been on. However, I think I’m going to do that.

Cortes-Acosta has had a great run, I think partly because he’s been facing a lot of guys who are happy swinging for the fences and leaving their chins out in the open. That’s about 85 percent of the Heavyweight division. Volkov doesn’t live there, though.

Volkov has learned that this isn’t the right way to fight. And he’s gotten smarter over the last few years. His win over Pavlovich in 2024, which set up his Gane fight, was especially notable for this reason. He peppered Pavlovich with his jab for 15 minutes straight and broke the man down, without ever letting him get within range for his destructive big looping shots.

Cortes-Acosta throws like Pavlovich does, so I think we could see Volkov run that jab out again and keep this fight at the distance he wants. Cortes-Acosta’s options to get around that are to hurry forwards throwing or trying to turn this into a dirty boxing match against the cage. I like Volkov’s chances of surviving those measures, though. He’s a great clinch fighter, too. And he’s not bad on the ground, either. He was able to sweep Almeida down there.

I’ve loved this run from Cortes-Acosta, but I think it ends here.

Best bet: Alexander Volkov moneyline (-185)

Sean Brady (-170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+142)

Brady’s chance to get in the Welterweight title picture was snuffed out by Michael Morales in November. He lost that fight by first round TKO (see it here). That’s nothing to get mad at, though — Morales just might be a champ in waiting. Brady had earned the fight with the top prospect after submitting Leon Edwards (see it here) and getting a dominant decision over the recently retired Gilbert Burns.

Buckley talked a big game last year, but was brought down to earth by Kamura Usman in June. Usman totally mopped the canvas with Buckley and, by doing so, snapped New Mansa’s six fight winning streak. Before the Usman fight Buckley stopped Colby Covington (yay!) and Stephen Thompson (boo!).

I really like Brady in this match-up and that’s because I don’t rate Buckley’s wrestling and, particularly, his takedown defense and his get ups. Usman held him down for a long time and was able to take him down, at will, through the first four rounds of their fight. Usman, who is near 40, whiffed on his last six takedowns in the fourth. All told he went 4-13 on takedowns and that’s a big reason why Buckley’s takedown defense looks decent on paper (72 percent).

We won’t remember Brady as being as good a wrestler as Usman, but a 33 year old Brady is pretty equivalent to a 38 year old Usman, in my opinion. I think Brady will have the same early success Usman did, while not getting tired (in this three round fight). Brady is also more active with his ground and pound than Usman and is also great at snatching up arms. I think that’s all going to be very tough for Buckley to deal with.

Could the much longer Buckley spark out Brady on the feet, like Morales did? Sure, I guess. But I don’t think Buckley is equivalent to Morales and I think Brady will be able to avoid Buckley’s jab and kicks well enough on route to getting this fight where he wants it.

Best bet: Sean Brady moneyline (-170)

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King Green (-340) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+270)

Is this on Fuel TV?

Green finished Daniel Zellhuber in February with a second round TKO (see it here). That was win number 15 for the 39 year-old. Before that he totally befuddled Lance Gibson Jr. for a split decision win. Those victories have helped us forget about the wheelkick KO he suffered against Mauricio Ruffy (see it here) and his quick submission loss to Paddy Pimblett (see it here).

After a series of side quests, Stephens returned to UFC in 2025 to fight Mason Jones in his native Iowa. He lost a very fun unanimous decision to Jones. He did have his moments, though. Part of the reason for that seemed to be that Jones wanted to give the UFC, and the crowd, what they wanted out of a Jeremy Stephens fight. Stephens went back to bare knuckle after that, though. In October he was stopped by Mike Perry at BKFC 82. Stephens, who is also 39, hasn’t won a UFC fight since TKO’ing a green Josh Emmett in 2018.

This could be a lot of fun. I think we’re getting a fire fight and lots of jawing back and forth. That suits both guys’ styles, but with where they are in their careers, I think Green comes out on top of that. And I’m not alone, look at those odds.

They are both the same age, but Green’s hand speed seems to have stayed with him. Stephens has looked pretty slow lately and he just doesn’t seem to have the same kind of power. Green, obviously, still has some pop in his bat (just ask Zellhuber).

I think Green either gets a stoppage or 30-27s across the board here. So I’m happy to take him minus the points.

Best bet: King Green -5.5 (-115)

UFC 328 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Ateba Gautier (-1100) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+700)

Gautier experienced his first adversity in the UFC in January. Andrey Pulyaev was able to frustrate Gautier and take him to a decision (I also had Pulyaev taking a round off him). Before that Gautier had steamrolled all of his opponents in the Octagon. This included crushing first round finishes of Tre’ston Vines, Robert Valentin and Jose Medina. The 24 year-old (gonna need to see that birth certificate) is now 10-1 as a pro with his only loss being a split decision in his second ever pro fight (where he was, allegedly, 20 years-old). That fight was in Wales against a Welshman and it was a total robbery.

Diaz took a gruelling decision over Djorden Santos in March, 2025. He’s been out since then. That was only his second UFC fight. Before that he was quickly finished by Zhang Mingyang. Diaz was a loser on Contender Series, getting finished by Joe Pyfer in 2022.

Gautier is getting crazy odds here. I’m not brave enough to pick Diaz flat out here, but I do think there is reason to be cautious with Mini Ngannou. Diaz is extremely tough and I think he could frustrate Gautier the way Pulyaev did. Only, Diaz has more power than Puylaev has. So I think there’s a chance Gautier gets touched in this fight. We don’t know how he’ll react to this (if it happens).

Believing that this won’t be a 30 second squash match opens up some interesting possibilities for me. The most obvious of those is over 1.5 rounds, which is a whopping +230 right now. Diaz is also getting +7.5 points and is still +475 with that handicap. Fight to go the distance is also +600.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+230)

Joel Alvarez (+145) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (-175)

Alvarez is on a four fight winning streak. That includes stoppages over Marc Diakiese, Elves Brener and Drakkar Klose. His most recent fight was in October. That’s when he went up to Welterweight and dominated Vicente Luque (that looks pretty good given what we’ve seen from Luque since).

Amosov finally made his UFC debut in December, quickly submitting Neil Magny (see it here). Amosov is most known for his exploits in Bellator, where he was Welterweight champion with wins over Logan Storley and Douglas Lima. He lost his title to Jason Jackson. Amosov is also known for taking time off from fighting to return to Ukraine to fight. literally, against the Russian invasion.

This is a really interesting fight.

I had Alvarez pegged as the Lightweight contender that no one was talking about, before he moved up to 170 lbs. A big reason for his threat at 155 lbs. was his incredible size and reach for that division. He’s 6’3” with a 77 inch reach. That’s still big for Welterweight. Michael Morales is 6’ 0” with a 79 inch reach.

I need to see more of Alvarez at Welterweight to know if he’s special here.

But I need to see a lot more from Amosov just to know if he can hang here. A submission win over a 38 year-old Neil Magny isn’t much to write home about.

An interesting wrinkle to this fight is the front choke. Both men love to attack with anaconda and D’arce chokes. Amosov has seven wins like that. Alvarez has a couple of D’arce, but also likes the standing guillotine a lot, too.

I’m wondering if these two cancel each other out when it comes to hunting for each other’s neck. If that’s the case, then I think striking might make a big difference in this fight. And I really like Alvarez’s striking. Everything he throws is straight and clean. I think that, and his reach advantage, will lead to a win here.

Best bet: Joel Alvarez moneyline (+145)

Grant Dawson (-170) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+142)

Dawson got crushed by a Manuel Torres uppercut in December (see it here). That broke a three fight winning streak for him, where he dominated Diego Ferreira, Rafa Garcia and Joe Solecki in Khamzat-like fashion. His loss prior to the Torres loss was his 33 second KO loss to King Green. The Green loss snapped the nine fight undefeated streak he had to start his UFC career.

Rebecki has fought nothing but wars since 2024. He’s 1-3 over that time, but he’s shown incredible grit and toughness over that span. The first of those wars with Diego Ferreira, where he got out to an early lead but was broken down late in the third for a TKO loss. He then went toe-to-toe with Myktybek Orolbai for 2024’s fight of the year. He won that by split decision. Next he lost a bloodbath opposite Chris Duncan. Most recently, in October, he lost a majority decision to a hobbled Ludovit Klein.

This is an interesting fight. Rebecki gets himself into wars despite being a good wrestler. His wrestling prowess is often shot after a round and a half of fighting, though, after he’s let his opponent stand and punch lumps out of him. Even if he fights more conservatively in this fight (spoiler alert: that won’t happen), I still think he’s going to have his hands full with Dawson.

Dawson is a lot bigger than Rebecki. He’s three inches taller, has six inches of reach over him and he carries more muscle. I think he’s going to be able to drag Rebecki down and do what he does best; a total wrestle-mugging for three rounds.

Dawson’s kryptonite has been one punch KO power. But Rebecki has never shown us that.

Best bet: Grant Dawson moneyline (-170)

Jim Miller (+260) vs. Jared Gordon (-325)

It’s always a nice feeling to see Miller’s name on a fight card. The 42 year-old is going into his 47th UFC contest this weekend. Despite being so long in the tooth, Miller has been very competitive lately. He’s 3-3 over the last three years with losses coming to respectable names (King Green, Alexander Hernandez and Chase Hooper). His last win was in November, 2024 — a guillotine on Damon Jackson (see it here).

Miller has been given a fellow veteran for Saturday, in the form of Gordon. The 37 year-old is coming off a scary TKO loss to Rafa Garcia (see it here). Before that he landed a scary KO himself, on Thiago Moises (see it here). Gordon is 9-7 in UFC, but he could easily be 11-5 if not for questionable scoring in his losses to both Nasrat Haqparast and, famously, Paddy Pimblett.

Miller is a surprisingly big underdog in this fight. I think it could be a very close bout with both men having success at what they do best (Gordon boxing and Miller grappling). The big question for me is whether Gordon can hurt Miller on the feet or not. Miller is extremely tough. He’s only been stopped with strikes twice in his fifty fight career. That was a knee from Dan Hooker (in 2018) and a head kick from Donald Cerrone (back in 2014).

I don’t think we’re going to see Gordon add his name to that list. That doesn’t mean he won’t win the fight, though. He could very well just box Miller up and out-land him, by a lot, for a comfortable decision.

If Miller gets to spend time on the ground, though, I think there’s a big chance he gets the win. I can see him wriggling around for a rear naked choke, but mostly I think he could use a lot of those dominant positions to suck up time and get the decision for himself.

I’m going to chicken out on picking the winner here and instead go for the fight going the distance (due to Miller’s toughness, more than anything).

Best bet: Fight to go the distance – Yes (-165)

UFC 328 Early ‘Prelims’

Roman Kopylov (+154) vs. Marco Tulio (-185)

Kopylov has lost two tough decision in a row now, to Gregory Rodrigues and Paulo Costa. Hard to get mad at him for that, given the form of those two Brazilians. Before that he scored a buzzer beater headkick KO over Chris Curtis (see that here). Kopylov is now 6-5 in UFC.

Tulio lost his 0 in November after getting thrashed by Christian Leroy Duncan (see the TKO here). He was 14-0 at that point with finishes over Tresean Gore and Ihor Potieria.

I think Kopylov might be too crafty for Tulio in this fight and we might see a repeat of when Koyplov fought Cesar Almeida. Tulio is as scary a striker as Almeida is, but he’s more creative than the GLORY vet. I think Kopylov is going to try and employ his wrestling in this fight, which is what he did to totally neuter Almeida. Tulio has only faced one takedown attempt in his UFC career (from Duncan) and it was a successful one.

I think Kopylov is also one of the best fighters Tulio has ever faced (along with Duncan). Kopylov has fought tougher and has never been stopped with strikes. I think Kopylov is able to find the right balance of getting his pot shots in on the feet and then dragging Tulio down to win rounds.

Best bet: Roman Kopylov moneyline (+154)

Pat Sabatini (-205) vs. William Gomis (+170)

Sabatini took a strong decision over Chepe Mariscal at UFC 322 in November. Prior to that he managed to get past Joanderson Brito. Sabatini is now 8-2 in UFC and hasn’t lost since being TKO’d by Diego Lopes back in 2023. Between UFC fights Sabatini has managed to win and defend the Cage Fury FC Welterweight pro grappling title.

Gomis took a decision over Robert Ruchala in September. Before that he dropped a very close split decision to Hyder Amil. Before that he won a split decision over Brito. Gomis is now 5-1 in UFC.

I really love watching Sabatini fight. His grappling is great and he can really break guys with his back take and body triangle. He’s also no slouch on the feet and was able to set up his takedowns on Mariscal with good punches.

I like Gomis, but I don’t think he’s special at any one thing. And I don’t think his striking is potent enough to get Sabatini out of there quickly or to cause enough damage that Sabatini’s grappling quality substantially decreases. I think Sabatini likely gets the positions he wants and is able to ride them out to a decision.

Best bet: Pat Sabatini moneyline (-205)

Baisangur Susurkaev (-600) vs. Djorden Santos (+440)

Susurkaev took some time to warm up, but eventually took out Eric McConico with a right hook back in November (see it here). Before that he submitted Eric Nolan (see it here). The win over Nolan was the proper UFC debut for ‘Hunter’. That debut came four days after he won on Contender Series with a first round body kick KO.

Santos took a decision over former hot prospect Danny Barlow in October. Before that he lost a decision to Ozzy Dias. He came off Contender Series in 2024 with a decision over Will Currie.

For this fight, we’ve got to focus on the round total. It’s set at 1.5 rounds and I think that’s very low. You have to be interested in the over, in my opinion, given Susurkaev’s slow start against McConico. And then when you factor in Santos’ toughness, that seems like too smart a play to turn down.

Santos showed off a heck of a chin in that Diaz fight. I really think he’s going to get through a few rounds with Susurkaev.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-166)

Clayton Carpenter (+150) vs. Jose Ochoa (-180)

Carpenter saw his undefeated record dashed in January, 2025 when he was out-wrestled by Tagir Ulanbekov. There’s no shame in that. His next fight came in October and saw him tap to a first round kimura from Jafel Filho. Prior to this mini losing streak he had beaten Lucas Rocha and Juancamlio Ronderos. He earned his contract with a win over Edgar Chairez on Contender Series.

Ochoa got grounded by Asu Almabayev last July for a unanimous decision loss. Before that he torched Cody Durden for a brutal second round stoppage (see it here). Ochoa’s debut was a unanimous decision loss to up-and-comer Lone’er Kavanagh.

This is a striker (Ochoa) vs. wrestle-boxer (Carpenter) match-up. If Carpenter wrestles more than he boxes, he’s got a great chance of winning this. Ochoa’s takedown defense is 59 percent and he was taken down on two of four attempts by Durden.

If Carpenter boxes more than he wrestles, then he could be in trouble. There’s real FAFO potential in this fight.

I think Carpenter, in an 0-2 hole, is probably going to be motivated to be a wrestler. So I’m expecting some early takedown pressure and lots of fence work in this fight. That could tire Ochoa out and make the chance of a finish shrink the longer we go.

Best bet: Clayton Carpenter moneyline (+150)

UFC 328 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Khamzat Chimaev to win by submission in round five (+1800)

I think this fights goes deep and is largely a repeat of Chimaev vs. Dricus du Plessis. Maybe, though, Chimaev has heard some of the chatter about how boring that first fight was. And maybe he decides to ramp it up a notch later on when he feels pretty sure he’s on his way to a win and that Strickland is there for the taking.

Tatsuro Taira to defeat Joshua Van by first round submission (+750)

I noted earlier how often Van has been taken down in the first round. I think that happens again here and I don’t think he has the submission defense to hang with Taira down there.

Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon split/majority (+700)

I think this is a really close fight and it goes the distance. I say that because I don’t think Miller submits Gordon and I don’t think Gordon knocks out Miller. I imagine some really close rounds in this fight, perhaps we see Gordon doing lots of work on the feet but then getting taken down and controlled for two minutes. Judges could be split on the outcome if we see something like that.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 328: “Khamzat vs. Strickland” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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