UFC Baku’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Fiziev vs. Torres

UFC Baku comes to us this weekend (Sat., June 27, 2026) from Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. This is UFC’s second trip to the small Eurasian nation (which can afford a whopping site fee). The main event is Azerbaijan’s own Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres. That’s a banger on paper.

The co-main is Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira, another very fun fight – on paper.

The rest of the card is designed to drum up local interest and get butts in the seats. The main card is filled out with Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo, Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Jonson, Brunno Ferreira vs. Ikram Aliskerov and Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Abus Magomedov.

The featured “Prelim” is Farman Hasanov vs. Eric Nolan. The undercard also has top prospects Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (who fights Julius Walker) and Daniil Donchenko (who takes on Theodor Berggren).

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Baku Main Card Money Line Odds

Rafael Fiziev (-112) vs. Manuel Torres (-108)

Fiziev was torn apart by Mauricio Ruffy in his last fight. That January bout ended by second round TKO (see it here). That also dropped Ataman’s UFC record to 7-5. He’s 3-2 since 2022. That run started with a finish over the ghost of Rafael dos Anjos. Then he lost a majority decision to Justin Gaethje (in one of the best fights of the year). After that he went down with a leg injury against Mateusz Gamrot. He returned from injury to fight Gaethje on short notice. Gaethje won again, with Fiziev looking worse than he did in the first fight. After that he got a decision over Ignacio Bahamondes in a fight where Bahamondes really underwhelmed.

Torres has been a highlight machine since joining UFC in 2022. He’s 5-1 with his sole loss being a stunning KO upset to Bahamondes at Sphere (see that here). Torres’ wins are all devastating finishes. Most recently he flattened Grant Dawson in the first round (see it here). Before that he zombified Drew Dober (see it here).

I don’t think the Azeri fans will be going home happy at the end of this event.

The loss to Ruffy was quite shocking. We’ve never seen Fiziev hit with such ease and then get so hurt as a result. He’s looked slower ever since coming back from the knee injury and his speed/mobility drop-off is terrible for his game. He he can’t stick and move he’s left sticking and then being around for when the opponent fires back.

That’s very dangerous to do against Torres. Torres might be under the radar, but he is a very bad man. If you think Ruffy hits hard and fast, then you might be surprised to see that he trails Torres in knockdowns per 15 minutes. Torres’ 3.93 knockdowns leads the division and the entire UFC. Ruffy is second in the division at 2.61. Torres is also fourth in the division at significant strikes landed per minute and sig. strike differential.

Torres is also accurate, too. He has a 59 percent accuracy on his sig. strikes.

Fiziev’s accuracy is a little less accurate, at 52 percent. That’s still a good number, though. The problem with Fiziev is that he takes one to land one, as shown by his sig. strikes landed per minute being 4.71 and his sig. strikes absorbed per minute being 4.84. That’s a negative sig. striking differential and always a red flag for me.

That’s a bad stat to carry into any fight, but against one of the leaders in positive differential and someone who knocks people down at a higher rate than anyone else in the promotion? That’s a tough ask for Fiziev.

Despite how high I am on Torres, the odds for this one are very close. That’s because Fiziev is a big name and the biggest name Torres has ever faced. The moneyline is great for me and that’s what I’m picking. But here’s some other props that might be of interest.

The point spread is 5.5 and you can get Torres +5.5 at -145 and Fiziev at -5.5 at +110. I can see why Fiziev backers might like that. Torres has never gone five rounds before (he hasn’t seen a second round in UFC), so might struggle if Fiziev can drag this one out.

Torres by KO/TKO/DQ is +130. Fiziev is +165 to win like that. Torres to win by submission is +1000 and decision is +1200. Fiziev is +1600 to win by submission and +500 to win by decision. If you like Fiziev, that decision bet might be of interest.

Ultimately, for me, I’m sticking with the Torres moneyline. I think he lands a lot of hard shots on Fiziev and the 2026 version of Ataman will find that too tough to deal with.

Best bet: Manuel Torres moneyline (-108)

Michel Pereira (+280) vs. Shara Magomedov (-355)

This match-up feels like it was destined to take place at some point, between two mercurial strikers who – on their best days – can pull off some sensational stuff inside the cage.

Pereira squeaked by Zach Reese in his last fight, in February. Almost everyone scored that one for the American, though. That win snapped a very depressing losing streak for Pereira. The streak started with a loss to Anthony Hernandez, which may have been the most one-sided and prolonged beatings I have ever seen in a UFC cage. After that he lost a decision to Abus Magomedov, while looking like he didn’t want to be there. And then, in August last year, he was sparked out by Kyle Daukaus (which Daukaus used to book his spot on the White House card).

Magomedov got the best of Marc-Andre Barriault in his last fight. He took a unanimous decision and a Fight of the Night bonus that night. That came after he lost his perfect record to Michael Page. MVP frustrated Shara-Bullet, making him look gun shy and out of ideas. Prior to that hiccup, Magomedov looked pretty good in beating Armen Petrosyan, Michael Oleksiejczuk and Antonio Trocoli.

Despite Pereira “winning” his last fight, I still have concerns about his career trajectory. I don’t think he’s the same fighter who delighted us with cartwheels earlier on in his career. I think this is Magomedov’s fight to lose. However, Magomedov can sometimes suffer from a desire to cruise in fights and wait only for the perfect opportunity to throw his best stuff.

I think there’s a chance this fight, which sounds so exciting on paper, could end up being a staring match.

If both men fight up to their current ability, I think Magomedov should probably be the one landing the best strikes throughout. I’m not sure if he’s able to get a quick finish, though. Magomedov has never won in the first round in UFC.

Pereira was taken out in the first round by Daukaus, but that’s a rarity for him. It’s tempting to wonder if that changed because of the beating Hernandez gave him, but I still feel like this fight goes deep and maybe to a decision.

The round total is 1.5, so I’m taking the over.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-238)

Nazim Sadykhov (-245) vs. Matheus Camilo (+200)

Sadykhov was on the losing end of an entertaining striking match-up with Fares Ziam in December. He lost that by second round TKO. Before that he knocked out Nikolas Motta in the UFC’s debut event in Baku (see it here). The New Yorker of Azeri heritage blew the lid off the arena with that win. He’s currently 4-1-1 in UFC with impressive wins over Terrance McKinney and Ismael Bonfim.

Camilo got his big break by beating Dorobshokh Nabotov on a card in South Korea in 2024. That fight was set up through UFC after Nabotov asked Dana White for a fight during a press conference. Camilo was signed to the promotion after that win and then lost to Gabe Green. In November he earned his first UFC win, a decision over Viacheslav Borshchev.

This bout is designed for Sadykhov to win and satisfy the crowd. He’s the much more potent striker in this match-up and he has good takedown defense (72 percent). Camilo will want to make this a grappling match, but I think Sadykhov will be able to stay on his feet and land hard shots.

The crowd factor might also help Sadykhov gets some breaks and stand-ups if Camilo is able to get him down and then not do much with it. Camilo wasn’t very active on the ground in his last fight. He had 2:22 minutes of control time in the second round with Borshchev, but landed just one significant ground strike.

Best bet: Nazim Sadykhov moneyline (-245)

Asu Almabayev (-258) vs. Charles Johnson (+210)

Almabayev is 6-1 in UFC. His loss was to soon to be title challenger Manel Kape. He was TKO’d by Kape, with the assistance of some eye pokes (see it here). More recently, he’s reeled off back-to-back wins over Jose Ochoa and Alex Perez. He was losing the fight to Perez, before snatching up a guillotine choke out of nowhere. That was back in November. In February he had a fight with Brandon Moreno fall through.

Charles Johnson should be nicknamed the chocolate box, because you never know what you’re going to get from him. After going 2-4 to start his UFC career with losses to Cody Durden and Ode’ Osbourne he went on a four fight winning streak which included an uppercut KO over current champ Joshua Van (see it here). Last year he lost a decision to Ramazan Temirov and then KO’d Lone’er Kavanagh (see it here). After beating Kavanagh, who has since become a star in the division, Johnson was knocked out cold by Alex Perez (see it here). In March he took a split decision over Bruno Silva.

Almabayev feels deserving of his lopsided odds here. It feels very likely that he’s going to be able to take Johnson down, a lot, in this fight. Johnson’s takedown defense has been good lately, but he was also taken down 11 times by Durden. Almabayev is fifth in the division for both takedowns landed and takedown accuracy.

Johnson is going to have to work very hard to stay on his feet. If he manages to stay up, and that’s a big if, you can’t count him out. He’s shown us, a few times, he can knock anyone out. It’s tempting to bet on Johnson here, since he seems to relish the underdog role.

I think I’ve talked myself into that. I’ll take him on the point spread, hoping he either delivers that big punch or he’s able to spend at least one round on the feet and can make this a close decision.

Best bet: Charles Johnson +3.5 (-120)

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Brunno Ferreira (+245) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (-305)

Ferreira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Gregory Rodrigues (see it here). Ferreira was supposed to fight Paulo Costa that night, but RoboCop jumped at the chance to fill in (Ferreira knocked him out back in 2023). Before getting wrecked in March, Ferreira won a decision over Marvin Vettori (in a fight he missed weight for).

Aliskerov beat the Iron Turtle Jun Yong Park in October. That was the first time Aliskerov had gone to a decision in UFC. Before that he trucked Andre Muniz with a first round TKO (see it here). Those wins both came after Aliskerov suffered his first UFC loss, in June 2024. That loss came against Robert Whittaker on the UFC’s debut Saudi Arabia card (see it here). Aliskerov was a short notice replacement for Khamzat Chimaev and was looking to have a coming out party in that Riyadh main event.

I am loathe to count out Ferreira, but I think his Tasmanian Devil routine is only going to get him so far in UFC. He packs a heck of a punch, but he’s small and not terribly durable. I think he might struggle with a long and fast striker like Aliskerov.

Aliskerov looked more like a Team Khabib fighter against Park, taking him down five times. But I think we’re going to see him try and keep this on the feet. Ferreira is a bit of a terror on the ground and is very good at getting submissions off his back.

Aliskerov’s reach should keep Ferreira at range and his speed might help him catch Ferreira when he tries to crash forwards. The round total is 1.5 and I’ll be bold and take the under. Ferreira is a kill or be killed fighter and he doesn’t waste his time in either victory or defeat.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-120)

Abus Magomedov (-135) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+114)

Magomedov started well against Joe Pyfer in October, but eventually lost to a rear naked choke (see it here). He won the three fights before that, though. Those included decisions over Michel Pereira and Warlley Alves and a submission on Brunno Ferreira (in a fight where he was hurt early on).

Oleksiejczuk is 3-0 since joining his old opponent Caio Borralho‘s Fighting Nerds squad. Those three wins are a hard fought decision over Marc-Andre Barriault in February and finishes over Gerald Meerschaert and Sedriques Dumas.

This is an interesting match-up. Oleksiejczuk is on a good run right now and he’s looked like he’s made some real improvements since joining the nerds. Magomedov gets wins, but he rarely impresses. He’s often hurt early or has to come from behind to win. It’s commendable that he’s able to do that, though.

I think Oleksiejczuk, in this run of form, might be capable of hurting Magomedov enough that the fight ends there, thus preventing Magomedov from catching a Hail Mary submission or slowly working his way back into the fight.

It might surprise many to know how well Oleksiejczuk stacks up with his division when it comes to power. He is fourth at Middleweight for knockdown average per 15 minutes. His 1.08 mark trails Punahele Soriano (1.23), Ikram Aliskerov (1.73) and Ateba Gautier (3.27). He’s also tired third among active Middleweights for KO/TKO wins (with five), with Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya.

Along with all that power, Oleksiejczuk also throws with volume. He leads the division in striking differential. And this is a division with Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez in it.

Magomedov’s defense is nothing special, so I like Oleksiejczuk to land often, land hard and get this one over with relatively quickly (he’s third in the division for shortest average fight time, too). Since he’s the underdog and I like his chances of finishing, that means — for me — this is a good place to take some points.

Best bet: Michal Oleksiejczuk +3.5 (-130)

UFC Baku ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Farman Hasanov (-175) vs. Eric Nolan (+145)

Hasanov has been signed with this card in mind. He’s 30 and 5-0. He’s from Azerbaijan, but he trains over at American Top Team. His last three fights have been in LFA, two of which were stoppages.

Nolan was thrown into a fight with Baisangur Susurkaev on short notice last August. That ended in a second round submission loss (see it here). Before that he was 8-3 with all his fights happening in New England’s CFFC promotion.

Hasanov is a wrestler who has shown some brutal ground and pound in his career thus far. Nolan is a slick boxer with some power (he wobbled Susurkaev), but I don’t think he’s going to be able to stop Hasanov taking him down and making it the kind of fight he doesn’t want to have.

Best bet: Farman Hasanov moneyline (-175)

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-550) vs. Julius Walker (+410)

It’s all gone according to plan for Yakhyaev thus far. He’s 2-0 in UFC and he’s yet to break a sweat. His two wins are rear naked chokes over Brendson Ribeiro and Raffael Cerquiera. Those are two of the worst fighters signed to UFC in the past couple of years. Even so, Yakhyaev is now 9-0 and the biggest favorite on this card.

Walker also has a win over Cerquiera, by decision. That win is book-ended by two losses. The earliest of those was a split decision defeat to Alonzo Menifield in his debut. The most recent loss was to Dustin Jacoby, by KO (see it here). That happened in February.

Walker hasn’t looked great so far. He’s a tall wall-and-stall guy who eats a lot of punishment. Jacoby lit him up for 42 sig. strikes and took just seven in return.

It’s still hard to know how good Yakhyaev might be, due to his level of competition thus far. It doesn’t feel like Walker is the guy who is going to expose him for being less than the star prospect he seems, though. Walker’s yet to be taken down in UFC, but I think that changes here. I’m expecting the Turkish fighter to get Walker down and submit him rather quickly (and easily).

Best bet: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by submission (-105)

Nursulton Ruziboev (-218) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+180)

47 fight veteran Ruziboev is back after over a year on the sidelines. He won his last two fights, including a decision over Dustin Stoltzfus and a KO over Eric McConico. McConico was an ultra late replacement opponent. Ruziboev was supposed to fight Bryan Battle last August, but Battle’s weight cut miss ruined that (Battle was cut from the promotion afterwards).

Pulyaev showed some holes in Ateba Gautier‘s game in January. He took the super prospect to a decision. He lost the bout, but he had plenty of bright moments in that fight (against a man who has killed everyone else he’s fought). Pulyaev’s other UFC fights are a TKO over Nick Klein and a decision loss to Christian Leroy Duncan. The Duncan fight was like the Gautier fight, with Pulyaev losing, but also succeeding in making a feared KO striker look relatively normal.

This could be a very good fight between two guys who are quite technical and very crafty. Ruziboev is a size bully at 6’5” and with his 76 inch reach. Can you believe he used to make Welterweight? However, he’s not going to have any size advantage against Pulyaev. Pulyaev is an inch taller and has two inches of reach on him.

Ruziboev has the power advantage in this fight. But Pulyaev has shown, twice, that he can fight on a knife’s edge and not get stopped by some very big power punches. Pulyaev didn’t win those fights, though.

This is a really close match-up and I think we might see momentum shift back and forth. If it’s a boring fight, that would favor Pulyaev (who loves to stall and grind). If it’s exciting, then that Ruziboev is probably getting off some good combos.

I favor Pulyaev slightly in this bout, since I think Ruziboev isn’t as good as either Duncan or Gautier and I don’t like his year long lay-off. I’ll take Pulyaev. I did want to take the over, since the round total is set very low at 1.5. However, the over is just -210.

Best bet: Andrey Pulyaev moneyline (+180)

Kaan Ofli (+142) vs. Javier Reyes (-170)

Ofli has a two fight winning streak after taking a majority decision over Yizha in January. That was a crazy fight with most observers scoring it for Yizha. Ofli’s previous win was far less controversial. Last October he submitted Ricardo Ramos. Ofli entered UFC with a KO loss to Mairon Santos in the 2024 The Ultimate Fighter final.

Reyes signed for UFC off LFA in late 2025. After winning on Contender Series he dominated the elder statesman Douglas Silva de Andrade in February. He went 2-2 in LFA, losing a war with Chris Mecate around a year ago.

I think Ofli has been out of his depth for a while now. He’s very stiff and, frankly, he feels a little undersized for the division (especially when there are so many big and tall Featherweights). He’s the same height as Reyes, but his T-Rex arms mean that Reyes will have a seven inch reach advantage.

Given how Reyes fights (long and with volume), I think Ofli is really going to struggle to get inside. I think he might get chewed up and possibly stopped in this fight.

Best bet: Javier Reyes moneyline (-170)

Daniil Donchenko (-500) vs. Theodor Berggren (+380)

Donchenko brutalized Alex Morono in his last fight. In February he pounded the heck out of Morono in a bout which made you feel bad for ‘The Great White’. Before that Donchenko blitzed Rodrigo Sezinando to score a first round TKO to win him last year’s The Ultimate Fighter tournament.

Berggren has been signed over to UFC without any appearances on their feeder programs. He’s 26 and 8-3. He’s had a few reps on Cage Warriors, including a loss to current Welterweight champ Justin Burlinson.

Berggren is fast and athletic, but he’s pretty raw technically and his footwork leaves a lot to be desired (he crossed his feet a few times in the fights I watched).

Donchenko is a wild man. But his wildness does have some technique to it. He’s great at flowing through combos and landing something really hard within them. He’s also relentless when it comes to his pressure (7.15 sig. strikes landed a minute at 60 percent accuracy!).

I think that’s all just going to be too much for Berggren on his debut. And the bookies agree. The total is 1.5. I’ll take the over. Donchenko is a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ kind of guy, so I think he’s going to put a beating on Berggren and find that finish later on in the fight.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135)

Bekzat Almakhan (+130) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-155)

Almakhan debuted for UFC in 2024 against Umar Nurmagomedov. He famously scored an early knockdown in that fight, before succumbing to Nurmagomedov’s wrestling game. Since then he obliterated Brad Katona with a first round uppercut (see it here) and lost a decision to Aleksandre Topuria.

Matsumoto was a main card fighter in his last three bouts. Those are split decision losses to Farid Basharat and Rob Font and a split decision win over Mile Johns. Those two losses were extremely close. I scored the Font fight for him and plenty scored the Basharat fight for him.

Almakhan is a bit of a rarity, in that he’s a guy from this part of the world (Kazakhstan to be exact) and he doesn’t have notable wrestling ability. His losses in UFC are down to not being able to stop the takedown. Granted, few can stop Nurmagomedov the Younger’s takedowns and Topuria the Elder might be something special, too. Even so, Matsumoto is a guy who mixes his striking and wrestling really nicely and I think he’s going to be able to get Almakhan down and skew the judges in his favor. He took down Font and Basharat seven times each.

Matsumoto has come undone against similarly well rounded fighters who are able to generate big moments, mostly on the feet. Almakhan has a ton of power, but Matsumoto is very durable and I think he’ll duck that overhand on route to yet more takedowns.

Best bet: Jean Matsumoto moneyline (-155)

Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento

Azerbaijan’s Abdullayev gets signed to fight in his home town after a four fight winning streak. The 29 year-old is 21-3 as a pro and he’s been on some decent shows. He was a short-lived champ in UAE Warriors and he’s also won in M-1 and Fight Nights Global.

Nascimento is also a newcomer. He’s 13-0 and he comes over after vacating the LFA Lightweight title. He’s held that belt since 2023 and defended it twice. He won his last fight, over Gian Maurente, with a brutal body kick.

There’s no odds out for this one, yet. But I like what I’ve seen from Nascimento in LFA.

Best bet: Jefferson Nascimento moneyline (?)

UFC Baku Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Manuel Torres to win by submission (+1000)

Torres have seven career submissions. We’ve just not seen that in his UFC career, thus far. He hasn’t needed his ground game, at all, since he’s just been knocking guys out. I think Torres is going to have the upper hand so, at these odds, why not take a chance on a submission win for him? Maybe he’ll get a club and sub on the usually tough Fiziev.

Nazim Sadykhov to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+550)

Sadykhov is in a very winnable fight on Saturday. Matheus Camilo is a guy who looks for takedowns and top control. Maybe he’ll get some of that early on and perhaps even take the first round. That could inspire Sadykhov, in addition to the thousands of cheering Azeris, to go out and push for the KO. He finished Nikolas Motta in the second round on his first stop in Baku.

Two bet parlay: Charles Johnson and Javier Reyes to win (+392)

I’ve got a big underdog and a moderate favorite in this parlay. I think Reyes is too long, active and powerful for the short arms of Kaan Ofli to deal with. And I’m picking Johnson because he’s capable of beating anyone on his night. It just seems we never see him ‘on his night’ twice in a row. He was upset and knocked out cold relatively recently, so I think he’s due a big performance.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Baku: “Fiziev vs. Torres” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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