UFC Belgrade best betting props, parlays and picks | Medic vs. Rodriguez

UFC Belgrade happens this weekend (Sat., Aug. 1, 2026) inside Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia. The event gets underway at a special time of 10 a.m. ET! The card features several fighters from this neck of the woods, including in the main event.

Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez is scheduled for five rounds, but I doubt we’ll need all them. This is a first main event for both fighters. Medic is coming off a string of quick knockouts, the Serbian fans will be hoping to see another on Saturday.

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The co-main event is Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling, with Stirling coming in on short notice for Bogdan Guskov. Rounding out the main card is Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic, Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin, Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina and Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev. There’s also Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira and Bogdan Grad vs. Dennis Buzukja.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Belgrade Main Card Money Line Odds

Uros Medic (-375) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+295)

Medic is the Welterweight Terrance McKinney with a ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ fight style, in both his wins and losses. He’s 13-3 as a pro with all his wins being stoppages (and only two being submissions). His last win was a 79 second KO over Geoff Neal (see it here). Before that he knocked out Muslim Salikhov in 63 seconds (see it here) and Gilbert Urbina in 63 seconds, too (see it here). Before those he lost to Punahele Soriano, in 31 seconds! His other two losses are to Myktybek Orolbai and Jalin Turner (both by submission).

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Rodriguez has been out of action for over a year. A big reason for that was because of his stint in a Mexican jail. MMA, ladies and gentlemen…

Before that time on the ‘sidelines’, Rodriguez took a decision over Kevin Holland in a wild fight where both men were close to being knocked out. Before that he TKO’d Santiago Ponznibbo (see it here) and managed a split decision over Alex Morono. His last loss was to Kelvin Gastelum, which he was forced to fight up a weight class due to Gastelum’s cutting failure. Rodriguez is now 10-4 in UFC. He turns 40 in December.

I’m expecting Medic to repeat what he did against Neal here and take out an aging veteran in a hurry.

I don’t think Medic is a future contender and I think he’s going to get some pretty painful losses once he starts messing around in the top fifteen. But I think this is a very friendly match-up here.

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Rodriguez is a volume striker who taps away at opponents to win rounds, with the hopes he can tire them down the stretch. His recent finish over Ponzinibbio isn’t that impressive, considering how fragile Ponzinibbio has looked over the past few years (he was just finished last week). His other UFC striking stoppages are over Dwight Grant and Preston Parsons. A third of Grant’s losses are by KO/TKO. And a half of Parson’s losses are by that method.

Rodriguez does have good defense, but I don’t think he can fend off Medic for too long and without that counter kill shot to stop him, I think Medic is going to be able to land something big sooner or later.

Medic doesn’t get talked about a lot, but he has the highest knockdown rate in the division (and this is a very good division right now). He also has above average accuracy on his sig. strikes (60 percent), so he’s not just spamming shots. He’s choosing them. And his defense is above average, too (56 percent), so he won’t be totally open to Rodriguez’s counters.

So I’m pretty confident that Medic wins. The big question, for me, is when does he win. The round total is, of course, 1.5 rounds. The under is -195 and the over is +150. I think the over might be the play here.

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Rodriguez is an intelligent fighter and he must know that he can’t stand and trade with Medic. I think he could probably stifle Medic in the first and get this fight deeper than what we expect. Rodriguez is also pretty durable, with just the one KO/TKO loss on his record – an Ian Machado-Garry head kick (see it here).

Also, let’s not forget that Medic has been into the second and third rounds before.

I’ll take that over with at plus money.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+150)

Jan Blachowicz (+260) vs. Navajo Stirling (-325)

43-year-old Blachowicz is coming off a draw with Bogdan Guskov in December. He was almost finished in the first round, but came back to win the second and third. He was due to rematch Guskov on Saturday, but Guskov ended up getting drafted into the Abu Dhabi main event, which he subsequently lost to Magomed Ankalaev (after spending most of the fight running away). Before the draw with Guskov, Blachowicz lost a clear decision to Carlos Ulberg and a very close decision to Alex Pereira. The brief former champ is now 12-8 in UFC.

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Stirling comes in on about three weeks’ notice to fight Blachowicz. He and his camp should be pretty familiar with Polish Power, though, having steered Ulberg to a decision over him last year. Stirling is 10-0 now after notching his fifth UFC win a month ago. That was his weird fight with Ion Cutelaba that ended by second round TKO. That was his second finish in UFC, having stopped Bruno Lopes before that (see it here).

It’s unusual to see the short notice fighter be such a big favorite, but this really is a great situation for Stirling (who took zero damage in the Cutelaba fight). I’m not super sold on Stirling’s value as a super prospect, despite his undefeated record. But I think his size and athleticism will be enough to get by the aging Blachowicz.

Blachowicz’s best chance of winning is that Polish Power of his. However, Stirling has been very good at avoiding getting hit and hurt. That’s a pretty big deal at Light Heavyweight, which is home to lots of killers who love to swing from the hip.

Stirling leads the division with a striking differential at 3.62, above Ulberg and Pereira (and even Jon Jones‘ career clip). His freakish reach helps with a lot of this. It’s easy for him to stay out of trouble with a 79 inch reach. Interestingly, Blachowicz has freakish reach, too, but it’s more deceptive. His is just one inch shorter.

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So it might be harder for Stirling to stay out of range in this fight, but his youth and speed are going to help that out a lot, too. I think he gets the biggest win of his career on Saturday, but I don’t think he stops the former champ. Blachowicz has only been stopped with strikes twice in his 42 fight career. The last time that happened was against Thiago Santos in 2019. Before that, it was Sokoudjou (haven’t written that name in a long time) in 2011.

Best bet: Navajo Stirling by decision (-105)

Aleksandar Rakic (-345) vs. Marcin Tybura (+275)

Rakic makes his Heavyweight debut on Saturday. The 34 year-old Austrian of Serbian heritage has fled to the division after four straight losses at 205 lbs. The most recent of those losses was in October, when he went down from a jab by Azamat Murzakanov (see it here). He’s also recently lost to Magomed Ankalaev and Jiri Prochazka. These losses have all happened since he blew out his knee in a bout with Jan Blachowicz in 2022. Before that he was 6-1 in UFC.

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Tybura turned 40 at the end of last year. He’s coming off a decision loss to Tyrell Fortune. Before that he was TKO’d, in the first round, by Ante Delija (see it here). He’s now 14-10 in UFC 2-3 in his last five.

This is a hard fight to forecast. The jury is still out on this whole Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight pivot. In this case, though, Rakic is getting an undersized Heavyweight. And an old one, too. Rakic is on the wrong side of 30, himself, but I’d rather than than be on the wrong side of 40 (I say as someone who resides there myself).

I think Rakic’s speed will be a big advantage in this fight. I don’t know if he’ll have the power to take out the pretty durable Tybura. Tybura will likely try to take that speed out of the equation by pressing Rakic into the fence and trying to drain his energy. I think we’re going to see some of that, but I also think Rakic will be able to do enough around that to get the win.

Either way, though, I think this fight goes long.

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Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-220)

Dusko Todorovic (+140) vs. Robert Valentin (-166)

Todorovic got a much needed win in September, submitting the woeful Jose Medina in the first round. That snapped a three fight losing skid for the Serbian. Those losses were against Zach Reese, Mansur Abdul-Malik and Christian Leroy Duncan (due to a knee injury). He’s 4-6 in UFC, but he’s had a strong schedule that also includes Chidi Njokuani, Gregory Rodrigues and Punahele Soriano.

Valentin got a much needed win recently, too. He got his first win since graduating from TUF when he submitted Julien Leblanc in April. Before that he was obliterated by Ateba Gautier (see it here), decisioned by Torrez Finney and crucified by Ryan Loder (see it here).

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I’m still not sold on Valentin. His lack of wrestling is really going to doom his potential to be a success in UFC. Todorovic is not a wrestler, but he probably knows enough to put him on his back.

I do worry a little about Todorovic’s chin. I think there’s a chance the long and lean Valentin manages to crack that. And we really shouldn’t get too excited about Todorovic’s win over Medina. Medina is one of the worst fighters signed to UFC in recent years.

The round total for this one is 1.5. I remember it was like that when Todorovic fought Reese and I took the over, doubting Reese’s ability to take Todorovic out quickly. I feel the same way about this one. I think if Valentin wins, it’s not in the first and that there’s a decent chance Todorovic is able to make this fight go long, to a decision.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+100)

Responsible Betting

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Vlasto Cepo (-355) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+280)

Cepo is a very popular fighter here in Serbia. He’s had a long and successful career in OKTAGON. He’s 6-2 with that promotion (14-3 overall) and is coming off back-to-back first round KO wins. In 2023 he also boxed Hector Lombard, to a draw, under the OKTAGON banner.

Urbina feels like a sacrificial lamb in this fight. The 30 year-old will be somewhat known to the crowd here, for that aforementioned loss to Uros Medic. Before getting sparked by Medic he as knocked out cold by Charles Radtke (see it here). He’s also been finished by Bryan Battle and Tresean Gore.

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This is a squash match, designed to have the partisan crowd roaring. There’s a couple on this card. Urbina has looked very chinny during his UFC tenure and Cepo is a bit of a beast. He won’t be as technical as Urbina, but he is going to pour on some pressure and throw with power. Based on what I’ve seen from him so far, I don’t think Urbina will be able to handle that pressure. I think he’s getting caught early on and that will be a wrap (just like the last time he fought someone from Serbia).

I don’t have prop bets available for this fight, at this time of writing. I would have taken Cepo by KO/TKO/DQ or minus the points, if possible.

Best bet: Vlasto Cepo moneyline (-355)

Milos Janicic (-120) vs. Noah Gugnon (+100)

Janicic gets a main card spot here for his promotional debut. A big reason for that is he hails from neighboring Montenegro. He’s 29 and 19-3. That’s just in MMA. He’s also dipped his toes into kickboxing and bare knuckle boxing. He’s been in KSW and OKTAGON, but not had any staying power in those bigger organizations.

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Gugnon is 25 and 9-2. He’s never been on a UFC product, either. He’s fought mostly in the ARES promotion in his native France. He had one appearance in Bellator in 2023, but lost by second round TKO.

I don’t know what this fight is doing here. There’s at least three other fights that would be worth putting on the main card in place of this featuring two nobodies (as far as a UFC audience is concerned).

I don’t want to think too long about this one, since there are more interesting fights waiting on the “Prelims”. So I’ll trust in the UFC matchmakers here. They obviously want to see a local-ish guy get the win to open the card.

Best bet: Milos Janicic moneyline (-120)

UFC Belgrade ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Ludovit Klein (-238) vs. Tofiq Musayev (+195)

Despite getting injured partway through the fight, Klein was able to keep it together enough to score a majority decision over Mateusz Rebecki in October (and get a Fight of the Night bonus). Before that he was totally dominated by Mateusz Gamrot for a unanimous decision loss. Klein is now 8-3-1 in UFC.

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Musayev got his first UFC win in March. He beat Ignacio Bahamondes by unanimous decision and took home a Fight of the Night bonus. He sliced Bahamondes open in that bout and had periods where he looked quite impressive. But the win was marred by an egregious fence grab and a possible headbutt. Musayev lost his promotional debut to Myktybek Orolbai, in his native Azerbaijan.

I hope Musayev fights a clean fight in Belgrade. If he doesn’t, then there might be some trouble in the arena (assuming Klein’s Slovakian fans make the short trip to Serbia). I say this as someone who is familiar with football and basketball fandom in this part of the world.

Klein has shown us a lot more, to date, and deserves to be a favorite in this bout. I don’t think he’s going to have it as easy as these lines are suggesting, though. I like him to win, but with Musayev starting to grow into his life as a UFC fighter, this could be a very close and bloody fight.

Klein is very technical and clean. Musayev is more spontaneous and explosive. These varying approaches are demonstrated in the difference in their striking accuracy, where Klein leads Musayev 53 percent to 46 percent. Klein also lands with a lot more volume, with 3.76 sig. strikes per minute versus Musayev’s very low 1.84.

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In his last fight Klein landed 82 sig. strikes on Rebecki over three rounds. Musayev landed just 34 on Bahamondes. Rebecki is a lot easier to hit than Bahamondes, but that’s still worth taking note of.

The line on Klein is a little too short for me, but I’ll take it nonetheless.

Best bet: Ludovit Klein moneyline (-238)

Oban Elliott (+280) vs. Michael Oliveira (-355)

Elliott looked like a potential top 20 fighter when he cut through Bassil Hafez in 2024 at Madison Square Garden. Since then, though, he’s been dominated by both Seok Hyeon Ko and Jonathan Micallef. That dropped him to 3-2 and he might be fighting for his UFC career here.

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Oliveira is coming off the Contender Series. He beat Victor Valenzuela by TKO in October. He’s 9-0 with fights mostly in LFA.

I’m kind of worried for Elliott, in this match-up and just overall. He hasn’t looked like the same fighter since the first round of that Ko fight. His confidence appears to be shot. And Oliveira looks like a very dangerous man to fight when you’re not mentally set.

LFA is loaded with Brazilian KO artists and they are starting to leak into UFC (Lerryan Douglas, Marcio Barbosa, Jose Delano…). Oliveira has looked, at times, just as scary as some of them in LFA and I think he might also have a chance of looking pretty scary in UFC, too. The man is also an athletic specimen, with a very big frame (and a 78 inch reach).

I think he wins this one and might also get a stoppage. If the prop were out, I would go Oliveira by KO/TKO. Since it’s not, I’ll just put the moneyline in here.

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Best bet: Michael Oliveira moneyline (-355)

Mark Vologdin vs. Borislav Nikolic

Vologdin lost a total barn-burner opposite Adrian Luna Martinetti on Contender Series last year. He failed to follow up on that, though, with a majority draw to John Castaneda in April. He was supposed to fight Josias Musasa in Belgrade. Musasa pulled out and that means there’s room for another local product on the card.

Nikolic is a former champion in BRAVE CF (UFC have raided that roster a little bit for this card). He’s 33 and 16-2 as a pro. On of those losses is to Brad Katona.

There are no odds for this at time of writing, but I expect them to be close. Vologdin seems like a fun Bantamweight, but I’m not sure how far he can really go. Nikolic hasn’t been seen at this level, but he looks like a good hand. And he’s got a ton of size on Vologdin, too (who might be able to shrink down to Flyweight). Nikolic will have seven inches of reach over him here. I think all that size will be just too big a mountain for the Russian to climb.

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Best bet: Borislav Nikolic moneyline (?)

Dennis Buzukja (+170) vs. Bogdan Grad (-205)

Buzukja is on a two fight losing skid, which has dropped his UFC record to 1-4. In his last fight he was starched bu heavy hitting hot prospect Marcio Barbosa (see that here). Before that he lost a split decision to Francis Marshall.

Grad was also finished by a hot prospect in his last fight. He was TKO’d by Luke Riley in November (see it here). Before that he dropped a competitive unanimous decision to Muhammad Naimov. Grad’s claim to fame is his war with Michael Aswell Jr. on Contender Series.

Buzukja has not looked good lately, but Grad might not have the skillset to take advantage of it. Grad has a well balanced game between striking and wrestling, but he doesn’t excel at either. He’s a land one to hit one kind of striker, as demonstrated by his -1.o sig. striking differential stat. He lands a fair number of takedowns, but his accuracy with those is only 40 percent. Grad also might not have the greatest Fight IQ.

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Buzukja has some of the same deficiencies as Grad, but he’s more experienced and I think he might be able to grind out a fairly forgettable win.

Best bet: Dennis Buzukja moneyline (+170)

Mateusz Rebecki (-525) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+400)

Rebecki has made a name for himself as a walking, talking “Fight of the Night” bonus with his wars against Mytybek Orolbai, Chris Duncan and Ludovit Klein. He’s 0-3 in those bloodbaths, with the win coming over Orolbai (after he was almost finished). In his last fight he was submitted by Grant Dawson.

Canadian Prepolec was re-signed to UFC to fight Benoit Saint Denis, in Montreal, on short notice. He was a game opponent, but succumbed to a second round submission. His last fight was in October, a TKO loss to Drew Dober. There was some controversy there, though. Prepolec soldiered on after taking a bad low blow and that badly affected his ability to put up a fight.

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This might be another chaotic bout for Rebecki, since Prepolec showed a willingness to throw down in that Dober match. Prepolec was doing well in that fight, too, hurting Dober. He will have a decent amount of size on Rebecki, too, including four inches of reach. Rebecki has struggled against his bigger, longer opponents lately.

Prepolec might be worth a look here. He held his own against BSD and Dober early and Rebecki doesn’t have the stopping power if those guys. Rebecki might be a guy who knows how to have a “Fight of the Night,” but not how to win. I’ll fade him here.

Best bet: Kyle Prepolec moneyline (+400)

Nina Milosevic (-425) vs. Hailey Cowan (+330)

Milosevic fights out of Australia, but she has connections to this region. She’s 29 and 8-1. Her one loss was her pro debut in 2023.

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Cowan was picked apart by Alice Pereira in April and finished with a second round knee (see it here). Before that she was submitted by Nora Cornolle. She’s now 0-3 in UFC and likely fighting for a new contract here.

Cowan has looked out of her league for a while now and she’s been set up in this bout. Milosevic has got above average striking and Cowan was very hittable in her last fight. I fear she might get finished here again.

Milosevic is quite small for Bantamweight (at only 5’5″). Even so, I think her regional work (which includes five stoppages in eight wins) outweighs what I’ve seen from Cowan lately. I’ll take the under, since the moneyline is so short.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+170)

Jovan Leka (-218) vs. Alexander Poppeck (+180)

Leka won a decision on Contender Series in Oct. 2025, but didn’t earn an immediate contract. He’s won two fights since then to get the call-up here in Serbia (where he’s from). He’s 24 with a 13-2 pro record.

Poppeck was on Contender Series back in 2019, but was TKO’d by Jamahal Hill. Since then he turned himself into a popular name with the OKTAGON promotion in Europe. He’s on a four fight winning streak. In April he beat former KSW champ Tomasz Narkun.

I’m happy to see Poppeck make it to UFC. And I don’t think he’s out of place on a UFC roster. He has come here a little too late for my liking, though. It’s hard to know if Leka is cut out for the Octagon, since he’s been fighting at a considerably lower level than that.

In this match-up, Leka has youth and size on his side. This fight happening at Heavyweight favors him, too. Poppeck has been fighting mostly at Light Heavyweight. So, despite my appreciation for Poppeck. I’m picking against him here.

Best bet: Jovan Leka moneyline (-218)

Marina Spasic (+230) vs. Stephanie Luciano (-285)

Spasic is debuting here, in her hometown. She’s 32 and 7-1. She’s not been on any of Europe’s premier MMA shows. But she did go 1-1 in BRAVE CF.

Luciano got her first UFC stoppage in October. That was a rear naked choke over Ravenna Oliveira. Before that she dropped a split decision to Sam Hughes.

Spasic has been brought in as a local attraction here. She’s not shown anything that would suggest she’s a UFC level fighter, though. Luciano has been her a few years and has barely done that herself. But even so, she’s the more accomplished athlete and I would be silly to pick against her here.

Best bet: Stephanie Luciano moneyline (-285)

UFC Belgrade Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Uros Medic to win by Submission (+750)

You know … Medic has two submission wins to his name. That’s interesting. And Rodriguez has a heck of a chin. Maybe Medic needs to get this fight done on the ground or perhaps a club and sub could be in our future.

Medic vs. Rodriguez: Winning Round – 3 (+850)

Medic is a fast starter and a fast finisher, but his recent run is making us forget that he has gone past the first round a few times. And Rodriguez, as I said above, is one of the more durable fighters he has faced. The odds on fnishes past the first round are super high, so I’ll take a punt on the third being where this one ends.

Two-bet Parlay: Dennis Buzukja and Kyle Prepolec (+1277)

I’ve paired a slight dog with a big dog here. I think Buzukja is a little bit better than Bogdan Grad and that he will get past him with a decision. And I think we are sleeping on Prepolec a little and forgetting that there was some controversy over how he lost to Dober. I think he might be able to put a lot of shots onto the walking punch magnet Rebecki.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Belgrade: “Medic vs. Rodriguez” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.