Apparently, no college head coach has ever been put in a greater position to win a national championship in their debut season than Lane Kiffin. The LSU Tigers honored every single thing Kiffin asked of them when he became the coach: the top 3 head coach salary, the No. 1 transfer portal class, and the best QB in the portal. As universal as it is, with great demands come greater expectations. LSU great Rohan Davey made it clear that for Kiffin, year one is do or die.
“The floor for me, I don’t care what the record is. The floor is the playoffs. It doesn’t matter to me what your record is. The floor is the playoffs. If you don’t get in the playoffs, we have a problem,” LSU great Rohan Davey said on WAFB9 News earlier today. “Especially once you see how well he’s done at Ole Miss, by going through the portal the last few years and not having the brand behind him as he has now, whenever Shu, and also the money behind that, you have another shoe. I know he’s spent over $45 million, and that wasn’t what was expected at the beginning when he first got here, and they threw more money, more money on top of the power.”
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In Baton Rouge, where patience for head coaches ran out after three straight losing seasons, Davey’s words carry the weight of a fanbase that’s been waiting two decades for another national title. The former Tigers quarterback played under Nick Saban in 2001 and knows what championship pressure looks like firsthand.
The demand to get into the playoffs is not a suggestion from a former player. That’s the voice of LSU football speaking through someone who wore the purple and gold when winning was the only acceptable standard. Rohan Davey is basically setting a “playoff or bust” standard for Lane Kiffin’s highly anticipated debut season.
He made it pretty clear that because the university has fully backed Kiffin with a financial commitment, including a $91.5 million contract and a $45 million roster, which enabled them to bring in guys like Sam Leavitt (Arizona State) and Husan Longstreet (USC), and five-star Colorado transfer offensive lineman Jordan Seaton.
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Of 43 transfers signed, 17 landed four- or five-star ratings, including nine top-100 players. Louisiana State became the first program in transfer portal history to secure three five-star prospects in one window.
On top of that, LSU’s athletic department even went as far as giving him the full green light to bring in whichever coaches he hand-picked. Kiffin even brought former LSU head coach Ed Orgeron back as a special assistant to recruiting and defense.
When you look at his predecessor, Brian Kelly won 10 games, and Saban did something similar without having the nation’s best talent. Considering all that, there should be no grace period for him.
Truth be told, Dave’s actually going a bit easier on him for some reason. Unlike earlier days, where you had to put in the labor for three years straight and expect a natty-caliber team, those days are long gone, unfortunately. In this peak NIL era, one season is all it takes to build a natty contender. After all, Kiffin himself approved: “Why win next year, when you can win now?”
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What does Vegas think about the great Lane Kiffin’s train?
Vegas is looking at Lane Kiffin’s first year at LSU with a mix of excitement and a little bit of caution. When the first betting lines dropped, FanDuel put LSU’s over/under win total at a high 9.5 wins. That placed the Tigers right at the top of the SEC alongside heavyweights like Georgia and Texas.
Oddsmakers clearly respect Kiffin’s ability to win big. But they are also making bettors pay a premium if they want to bet on a 10-win season.
However, the betting public is completely torn on what will actually happen, causing the lines to bounce around. Because so many people have been betting that LSU will fall short of that high bar, books like BetMGM actually dropped the line down to 8.5 wins.
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Then again, fans are a bit nervous about putting their hard-earned money on a first-year coach. When it comes to winning the ultimate prize, Vegas is still giving Kiffin a legitimate seat at the championship table. LSU’s odds to win the National Title are sitting around +1400 to +1500.
The main reason oddsmakers are hedging their bets is LSU’s absolutely brutal schedule. Vegas loves that Kiffin brought in the number one transfer portal class in the country, but they also know a brand-new roster takes time to gel, regardless of how talented they are.
With the SEC’s expanded nine-game conference schedule, there are almost no easy weeks, meaning LSU has to survive dangerous matchups against giants like Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee.
In short, Vegas thinks LSU is going to be incredibly talented but faces a razor-thin margin for error. A 9-3 regular season seems to be the exact sweet spot where the math guys expect Kiffin to land. It is enough to put them right on the bubble for the new 12-team playoff, making every single game a must-watch for bettors.
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