BEREA, Ohio — In the perfect world that none of us live in, Todd Monken would give Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders a whole season each with the Cleveland Browns‘ starters.
He’d have given it to them, already, actually.
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And he’d have seen them in high-stakes situational work with live defenses and under-pressure decision making — the same situations and defenses and pressure, of course — so that the Browns’ first-year head coach could know, rather than project, which quarterback gives his team the best chance to win.
But as Monken stood in the Browns’ fieldhouse on Friday rooted firmly in the reality that he does not live in that perfect world, he acknowledged the degree of projection — albeit rooted in deep process and an as-large-as-the-CBA-allows sample size — that must go into deciding who will play the most important position in football when the Browns visit the Jacksonville Jaguars for their season opener.
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“It’s not actually that simple with the variables,” Monken told Yahoo Sports. “A number of players, when it’s that close, you don’t know for sure. You think you know. But you know what? At some point, you put Lamar Jackson in the first time. They didn’t know, and at first, they probably thought he couldn’t do what he’s done.
“And then he developed at it, and he got better.”
Monken was not suggesting that either Watson or Sanders, who are competing for the Browns’ starting job, has the résumé of two-time MVP Jackson. But after spending the last three years as Jackson’s offensive coordinator in Baltimore, Monken understands what Jackson could do and how powerfully he has accentuated his strengths and minimized his weaknesses.
And still, Jackson did not start the first nine games of his rookie season just like three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes did not start until the no-playoff-stakes finale of his rookie year and just like four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers waited behind Brett Favre for three seasons.
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The point: Quarterback evaluation is a famously inexact science. So while the Browns have a plan to integrate both science and art into their anointment decision, Monken knows he cannot know everything. He’ll structure his quarterbacks’ toolbox accordingly. And then he’ll adapt.
Head coach Todd Monken instructs Deshaun Watson at Browns training camp on Aug. 3. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
(Nick Cammett via Getty Images)
“You have to fall back on what [a player’s] elite trait is and then you try to build on other things that they do well,” Monken said. “And you still don’t know.”
What can the Browns know, and how are they chasing that information?
Let’s break it down.
How Browns are structuring workload for Watson, Sanders
Watson and Sanders have received first-team snaps in 11-on-11 drills during alternating days of training camp so far. By late this week, whoever was taking second-team 11-on-11 snaps was receiving some first-team 7-on-7 snaps that day to increase their opportunities with the presumed starting weapons even if they were working with the second team during full-team drills.
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Alternating days with the starter is one, but not the only, way to structure a quarterback competition. Consider the Minnesota Vikings right now are shuffling first-team snaps between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy within practices during this training camp.
Monken’s reasoning for alternating days?
“We felt like we wanted to let them get a little bit of a rhythm for the day with who they’re playing with,” he said. “But I could see doing [the Vikings’ way]. I don’t think either is right or wrong.”
Beyond the surrounding cast lies the work of the day. Coaches and executives watching film are not looking for the same benchmarks from each practice or period. Through Thursday of this week, the Browns were installing their offense, which sometimes meant running offensive principles against their attack-front defense that would not be called against such a defensive front in game days. Evaluations of those periods focused less on results and more on whether quarterbacks were identifying their looks correctly and going through the right progressions. Evaluations of third- and fourth-down days factor in whether the quarterback applied the right situational reasoning on how aggressive to be, while evaluations of four-minute drills permitted more patience for short sacks and check downs.
Relative grading bases unfold.
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“It’s not always apples to apples,” Monken said. “You can’t.”
The quarterback working with the first team is assessed, in part, by his chemistry with the weapons he’d presumably be matched with if they won the job. The quarterback with the second team (and due to injuries, at time third-string players) face a different challenge but also a different chance to prove themselves when rhythmic play eludes.
“Nothing’s more frustrating than not being able to get in a rhythm,” Monken said. “Guard misses a block. Third-team receiver doesn’t run the right route, right? Yeah. So how do you pull your big-boy pants up? And part of that is what you want to see.”
With ‘greatest strides’ but less experience, will Sanders catch Watson?
The body of information that will decide the Browns’ quarterback competition predates the July start of training camp and it predates the Browns hiring Monken on Jan. 28.
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Sure, as the saying goes, the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately?” league. But it’s also about what each quarterback, so far in their career, has done.
Watson has the advantage in experience, the 12th overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft starting 72 career games to Sanders’ seven.
Watson’s career-long athletic and performance ceilings surpass Sanders, from his 66.2% completion rate to Sanders’ 56.6%; Watson’s 98.8 passer rating to Sanders’ 68.1; and Watson’s 2020 distinction as the league’s leader in passing yards with 4,823.
But what has Watson done lately for the Browns? Less than Sanders.
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While Watson sat out all last year rehabilitating an Achilles tear that, paired with a shoulder injury, have limited his Browns tenure, Sanders quarterbacked the Browns to three wins in seven games (a defense featuring sack record-holder Myles Garrett may have helped). Sanders threw for 1,400 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions during that stretch. The Browns rave about Sanders’ growth since.
“Shedeur, he’s probably made the greatest strides in that room,” general manager Andrew Berry told Yahoo Sports on Friday. “Everything from his pocket management to his processing to his understanding of what we’re trying to accomplish.”
That understanding is where Watson still has an advantage: in addition to more NFL experience generally, Watson has more specific pro experience working with the degree of quarterback freedom and responsibility that Monken believes in giving. Sanders, the Browns say, is less experienced in processing that information on what cues could change the play at the line of scrimmage and leading 10 offensive teammates accordingly.
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The next question: Which Watson will the Browns get? The three-time Pro Bowler from his Texans days before sexual-assault allegations, a trade request and injuries flipped his arrow upside down? Or the quarterback whose completion percentage dropped from 67.8% in Houston to 61.2% in 19 Cleveland games across three years; from 269.2 yards per game in Houston to 177.1.
Watson’s production and efficiency declined in every category after his Browns arrival. Can he rebound?
“Number one, Deshaun’s healthy,” Berry said.
“I think that’s incredibly important, from his shoulder to his Achilles. He’s moving around well. He’s really taken to the offense from an operational standpoint, knows what Todd and the staff want to accomplish.
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“Like all of our guys, he’s still a work in progress as we install the offense, but physically, he’s in a really good place.”
Berry acknowledged that Watson’s health “is not something we’re going to be able to predict perfectly.” But they feel his current conditioning and the rehabilitation from his injuries gives them confidence on what’s within their control.
Expect the practices that now succeed the installation phase of training camp to help discern some nuances between Watson and Sanders’ value, while the Browns’ initial preseason action at the Chicago Bears on Aug. 15 offers a chance to discern others.
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Publicly, the Browns have said the latest they can take this decision is into game-planning the week of their season opener.
But it strains credulity to think that, like their historical counterparts evaluating quarterbacks before them, they would not want to make a decision sooner once they feel the data is pointing in one direction.
Then their starting offensive line (also undergoing competition) can accustom itself to the quarterback’s cadence and their starting weapons can receive more time on task to build chemistry with the quarterback the Browns hope will set the tone for Monken’s initial year.
The Browns’ game plan, then, will narrow.
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“You have to be wide enough at the beginning to where, OK, once you find out who you have, now you know you may go down this road or this road and kind of branch out from there,” offensive coordinator Travis Switzer told Yahoo Sports. “But if it’s built [broadly] from the beginning, it gives you that flexibility. And then it’s just, hey, who do we have? What do they do well?
“And how can we do more of those things?”
