A fascinating stylistic clash headlines UFC 330 in Philadelphia. Islam Makhachev enters as a heavy favorite, sitting around -345 to -390, and rightly so. He has been a dominant force in the sport for the past decade, earning two-division champion status with his draining grappling and underrated striking. But, despite Makhachev’s expertise, value bettors are beginning to realize that the market is severely undervaluing Ian Machado Garry, creating a clear betting edge.
Value betting is quickly becoming the standout way to bet in mixed martial arts. Given the unpredictable nature of the sport, bettors are turning their attention to high-value single bets on undervalued betting lines rather than combining a selection of favorable picks. This way, you only have to rely on one outcome, making it easy to find profit in the market.
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One fight your attention should be on is the upcoming UFC 330 main event between champion Islam Makhachev and challenger Ian Garry. The data shows why this fight is so clear-cut. Makhachev averages a relentless 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes inside the octagon. His opponent, Garry, lands a high-volume 4.78 significant strikes per minute, while also possessing elite takedown defense, which will be used to nullify the Russian’s offense.
If the champion manages to chain his wrestling together early and dominates from the opening bell, he will likely cruise to a decision or find one of his life-draining submissions. If the challenger keeps the fight standing and picks his opponent apart with shots from distance, uses his size, and forces resets on failed takedown attempts, his striking volume will give him the edge in rounds.
Crucially, Garry’s chance of delivering an upset win and taking home UFC gold improves as the fight goes on. Data projects Islam’s round-win probability dropping from 70% in the earlier rounds to 56% in the championship rounds.
Due to Garry’s volume, tactical distance striking, and his methodical approach to the fight game, his most likely path to victory has been the judges’ scorecards. Data assigns a 22% chance to that outcome on August 15, making the Irishman by decision a quality prop bet if you’re able to find it placed around +450 or higher.
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While most predictions are on Islam Makhachev retaining his title, the market is overvaluing the champion. His decision line at around +135 and submission line at around +200 do not offer enough return for the statistical risk involved.
If betting on Ian Garry ahead of the fight remains too risky an option, wait to see how the first round plays out. Garry manages to neutralize Makhachev’s wrestling and keeps the fight standing without taking too much damage on the ground after round 1? That is your cue to strike on a massive live-value opening.
UFC 330 goes down on Saturday, August 15, live from the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, available to watch on Paramount+.
