All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Today’s top batter prop bets
Alec Bohm | OVER 0.5 HR (+1240)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.44 EV
Dansby Swanson | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.44 EV
Wenceel Perez | OVER 1.5 TB (+214)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.28 EV
CJ Abrams | OVER 0.5 RBI (+197)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.67 EV
Chandler Simpson | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+125)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.43 EV
Billy Cook | UNDER 0.5 H (-124)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.08 EV
Today’s top pitcher prop bets
Kyle Harrison | OVER 5.5 K (-128)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $36.52 EV
Carmen Mlodzinski | UNDER 1.5 ER (+126)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.65 EV
Jose Quintana | OVER 3.5 K (+140)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.12 EV
Max Meyer | UNDER 4.5 K (-108)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.32 EV
The BAT X: Team Projections
Top Betting Trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.
New York Yankees Run Line:
The Yankees have covered the run line in eight straight games. (+9.30 Units / 104% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ -114
Kansas City Royals Game Total Over:
The game total has gone over in six straight Royals home games. (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -115
New York Mets Team Total Under:
The Mets have gone under their team total in 13 of their last 15 games. (+11.10 Units / 64% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -135
Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The A’s have hit the first five innings run line in nine of their last 10 road games. (9-1) (+7.75 Units / 67% ROI). Current odds: 0.5 @ -145
San Diego Padres 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Under:
The Padres have done under the first five innings team total in eight of their last 10. (+6.10 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +110
Boston Red Sox 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
Boston’s first five innings team total has gone over in eight of the last 10 away games. (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -110
