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Have the Thunder solved Victor Wembanyama?

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All season long we have seen just how important Victor Wembanyama has been to the Spurs. This playoff run has only served to emphasize it.

Wembanyama’s size, skill and versatility are making an impact against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. He averaged 30.3 PPG and 13.3 RPG through the first four games of the series. The only other players in NBA history to average 30+ PPG and 10+RPG through their first four conference finals games: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Hakeem Olajuwon. Elite company.

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The thing about the playoffs is every series changes, things shift, teams work to adjust. In Game 5, Wembanyama shot 4 for 15 from the field. That is the first time he shot worse than 46% against OKC this season (he’s shot 50% or better vs. OKC in 8 of their 10 matchups).

The conference finals are a sprint and the Thunder are now just 48 minutes from returning to the NBA Finals. With everything on the line, can Wemby, who curiously refused to speak to the media after Game 5, get back to impacting the game on both ends to save the Spurs’ season? Or have the Thunder finally solved the one who has bothered them all season?

How OKC is slowing Wemby on offense

One thing that is crystal clear this deep in the series is how important it is for Wembanyama to establish himself on the offensive end of the floor with consistency. Aggression feels like the buzzword to bring to the table, but assertiveness may be more fitting in this scenario. He has to play in a way that forces OKC to feel his presence and react to what he is doing.

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In these playoffs we have seen the Spurs rely on their defensive base. They utilize stops to establish their guards and flow on offense, then work Wemby in. The issue is, as the series goes on, they also have to establish Wemby to maintain that balance. In those moments when he is not as assertive, an aggressive and active Thunder defense has been able to dig its heels into the ground more.

This is a battleground between each team. Being able to move Wembanyama around the board has been a strength for San Antonio. The versatility in his skill set is one thing, but San Antonio putting together a blend of on-ball attacks, drives, off-ball screens and pick-and-rolls both with Wembanyama as a ball-handler and screener has elevated his presence. The real trick the Thunder are pulling off is not just that they’ve switched from guards and wings to bigs defending Wemby, it’s that they’ve worked to poke at each of those scenarios in different ways.

OKC has played a lot more physical against Wembanyama, for one, but what has that impacted?

OKC vs. Wemby in pick-and-roll actions

The first thing I point to is pick-and-roll. With Wemby’s size, the Spurs have constantly found a way to use him as a roller. But OKC’s physicality shows up by engaging in Wemby’s body as he looks to set up a screen. Doing that can take away a need for their big to show and limit putting two on the ball. Not only can you slide under vs. Stephon Castle, it limits the set up and the space for Castle to drive.

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Watch how Jaylin Williams physically engages him below. I will leave the referee discourse to you, but if those two are locked up, there is no screen, there is no show, there is no roll.

Even when the Spurs have tried to adjust to having Wemby roll to an empty side, Isaiah Hartenstein is working to stay even with him and the weakside is working to disrupt the roll. OKC has worked to throw in late switches so when he does get a chance to roll and it looks like they’ve engaged the defense, that peel shortens the window and the weakside is still coming to help.

One counter the Spurs have gone to is working to set higher screens on the floor earlier in the shot clock. The purpose is to get one set up before the Thunder defense can get physical with Wemby.

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On one hand, you can see the difference in space Castle has to downhill attack and how it opens Wemby’s roll or pop. On the other hand, it’s not always a guarantee as the Thunder will still work to pressure the ball. The longer you take to set up pick-and-roll, the more into the action the Thunder will be. The screen navigation from Cason Wallace can keep Hartenstein from having to engage and there’s no advantage for Wembanyama to attack.

The Spurs have liked to go with a V action or a “high horns” with two screens above half-court. The idea is to get downhill quick, for a level of help, and open up a roll. What’s tough is OKC’s overall personnel and mindset to pressure the ball.

Watch how Alex Caruso sniffs this play out and kicks Jared McCain out of the action. Instead of getting a show or an advantage, the Spurs get Caruso switching with Hartenstein in perfect position to take Wembanyama’s roll. In the second half when the Spurs went back to it, they managed to keep McCain in the action and got Hartenstein in a drop, but look at McCain’s tag on Wembanyama’s roll. He still ends up at the free-throw line while Castle is engaging Hartenstein in the paint.

The impact of the Spurs going to inverted pick-and-roll with Wembanyama as a ball-handler has been more muted of late. Wanting to put Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in action vs. Wembanyama should open things up. However, Jaylin Williams being able to fight over without SGA truly having to show once again removes an advantage.

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Wembanyama is now left to attack on the perimeter with help waiting. Julian Champagnie spaced one pass away helps, but does not tilt the Thunder’s defense. OKC is going to work to push Wembanyama’s catches out as far as possible on the perimeter. So even if you do get SGA to show out and open a roll, the weakside has a chance to pull in and help.

OKC forcing Wemby further out

I am sure there is a desire for Wembanyama to go the post, but that’s exactly why the Thunder have put more size him. He will have to work to catch the ball closer to the basket in areas where he wants to attack.

One adjustment the Spurs have leaned on in these playoffs to unlock Wemby is using off-ball screens. The Thunder are not willing to give the switch, and if he does not have the 3 going, it turns into an elbow catch with a defense staring and waiting to dig on a drive.

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Wemby’s growing desire to deliver more physicality hasn’t had the same impact at times. OKC is more than willing to work to push catches out, force more dribbles to get in the paint and find comfort in the help they show.

How OKC is making Wemby defend

We’ve talked at length this year about the impact Wembanyama has had on teams with his defense. A big shift for the Thunder has been how they have worked to move Wembanyama around the court.

One of his biggest strengths has been his ability to see what an offense wants to do, anticipating and working to put himself in the strongest position possible to maintain his help. OKC has countered by mixing in different actions to not only get Wemby to react, but to play out of that reaction.

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The Thunder have worked to mix Wemby into action more to not allow him to dictate terms by staying on the backline and directing traffic. There’s a clear attempt to engage him and play out of the help behind him. It’s also a sneaky way to quietly allow Gilgeous-Alexander to get to his stepback. It’s of course not a perfect world (because use your eyes), but it’s clear when he does engage or switch that OKC sees it as a license to attack the paint.

Focus in on how when Wembanyama is defending someone in space. OKC is looking to play off his movement. It can come in the form of immediate kicks to whoever he is defending to get to a shot or to continue to flow offensively. Or driving with force to bring him into the paint, kicking and now forcing him to rotate instead of his guards.

The quietest move from OKC has been working to add little layers to flip the court on Wembanyama, moving his help defense from the weakside (away from the ball) to the strongside (same side of the ball).

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In those moments, if Wemby wants to hold low help, it opens up a shot from the corner. OKC has worked to mix in movement and stay decisive with making sure the ball moved to the side Wembanyama was on. The Spurs guards and wings have to work to keep the ball in front, but Wembanyama being put in a position where he can only give a stunt from the corner speaks volumes.

OKC has put it all together by going to a specific set to make it look like Wembanyama is starting on the weakside of the floor — a pick-and-roll on one side, only the Thunder advance it to the top and run a second one.

If the Spurs aren’t clean on a switch and Wemby helps, it’s a kick to his man. OKC adjusted to put Wemby in that second screen and force the rest of the Spurs to help on a roll. They even faked to get Hartenstein into a dribble handoff so he could get to his floater (the one that I am sure Wemby cannot stand by this point).

Now keep in mind I am pointing all of this out because the Thunder are doing this for a reason. Wembanyama is a force defensively and, despite their attempts to move him around the board, he can still see it and be impactful.

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On the play below he switches onto Chet Holmgren’s backdoor cut, sees Castle is in a position to recover and immediately calls for him to take the matchup so he can rotate up the middle of the floor to take the ball. He blows up the action, contains the drive, rinse, repeat.

Wemby’s minutes are incredibly valuable for the Spurs, but specifically in this series. The Thunder force opponents to sustain great basketball on both ends of the floor. When Wemby has sat and Luke Kornet has come in, shut your windows because the Thunder are bringing a storm. The defense feels stronger. The offense feels like it has two modes, smashing the gas pedal on the greenest of green lights, and pretending this is NBA Street, they have a Gamebreaker and are pocketing it to level up.

On the brink of elimination, the Spurs can’t afford for OKC to poke at what has brought Wembanyama to this level. This isn’t the full story, but this is the current reality. This is the success the Thunder will likely try to double down on to rid themselves of Wemby and the Spurs. You can point to the blowout nature of these games, but make no mistake this has a been a back-and-forth series of runs.

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For the Spurs to advance, Wemby will have to be the metronome with the feeling of an 808. He’s already shown the Thunder what he can do. For the Spurs to reach their ultimate goal, he’ll have to pound the rock two more times.

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