NASCAR In-Season Challenge: Key Matchups for Drivers Facing Elimination

The NASCAR In-Season Challenge got underway this past Sunday at Sonoma Raceway. The 32-driver bracket quickly thinned itself out, and now, leading into Week 2 of the five-week challenge, the contest will take to Chicagoland Speedway.

In the first week of the challenge, only a few upsets occurred, unlike in 2025. A year ago, Ty Dillon was a Cinderella story that made it to the final Round, losing to Ty Gibbs. The seeds in the semifinals were: No. 6, 12, 23, and 32. In 2026, only three drivers seeded 20th or worse remain among the last 16 left: Michael McDowell (20; Def. Bubba Wallace), Todd Gilliland (25; Def. Daniel Suarez), and Alex Bowman (32; Def. Tyler Reddick).

The current favorite to win it all is none other than driver standings’ leader, Denny Hamlin. Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney will chase right behind, but fear not, uncertainty is in the air, and upsets are bound to continue to happen. Here are the Round of 16 Matchups.

No. 32 Alex Bowman vs. No. 16 Austin Cindric

Alex Bowman Celebrates 2019 Victory at Chicagoland Speedway. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)(Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)

Bowman is the defending champion at Chicagoland, having done so when they last raced the oval in 2019. Cindric is the current bubble driver, 16th in the driver standings. Edge: Alex Bowman.

No. 25 Todd Gilliland vs. No. 9 Carson Hocevar

Gilliland upset Suarez last week at Sonoma, but hardly so by finishing in 29th place. His average finish in 2026 is 21.7. Hocevar, meanwhile, has a race win and a top-10 driver standing to his name. Edge: Carson Hocevar.

No. 12 Chase Briscoe vs. No. 5 Ty Gibbs

This matchup of teammates is the fiercest of the week. Gibbs has 11 top-10 finishes in 2026, plus one race win. Briscoe has 8 top-10 finishes and a near-win at Sonoma Raceway last week. Edge: Neither driver; 50-50 shot.

No. 20 Michael McDowell vs. No. 4 Chase Elliott

McDowell’s strength has been shown by back-to-back top-10 finishes on road courses (Sonoma, San Diego). Elliott expects to give McDowell all he can handle, having 2 wins under his belt in 2026. Edge: Chase Elliott.

No. 2 Denny Hamlin vs. No. 15 Erik Jones

Hamlin is rightfully the challenge favorite. He has 5 race wins, including the All-Star race, in 2026, and an average finish of 9.2 on the season. Jones is in strong form on ovals, averaging a finish of 7.0 in his last 5 races on such track types. Edge: Denny Hamlin.

No. 7 Chris Buescher vs. No. 10 Christopher Bell

This matchup is among the most thrilling of the week, behind Briscoe vs. Gibbs and Byron vs. Larson. Buescher has a 50% top-10 rate in 2026. Bell dealt with a wrist fracture but proved still fast with a 5th-place finish at Sonoma. He is the fastest driver, a Toyota driver for the OEM, who has won 11 of 18 races this season.Edge: Christopher Bell.

No. 11 William Byron vs. Kyle Larson

Another battle of teammates features Byron vs. Larson. Byron’s season is a step below expectations, 12th in the driver standings. Larson is winless in over a year but still 5th in the driver standings with 11 top-10 finishes. Edge: Kyle Larson.

No. 14 Shane van Gisbergen vs. No. 3 Ryan Blaney

This is not a road course, and for that reason, Blaney is the biggest favorite of the week. He is 3rd in the driver standings with the most top-10 finishes (13) of any driver in 2026. Van Gisbergen only has 1 top-10 finish on a non-superspeedway oval in this calendar year (Nashville). Edge: Ryan Blaney.

Looking Ahead in the In-Season Challenge

Chicagoland Speedway hosts the Round of 16, with three more weeks to go thereafter. NASCAR carefully designed its schedule to race very different track setups across the five-week event.

Quarterfinals: EchoPark (Atlanta) Speedway — 1.5-mile superspeedway.
Semifinals: North Wilkesboro Speedway — .625-mile short track.
Champions Round: Indianapolis Motor Speedway — 2.5-mile flat rectangular track.

Time will tell who becomes victorious. The winner of the In-Season Challenge will earn $1 million.

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jul 1, 2026, where it first appeared in the Racing section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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