What Flyers’ huge Leo Carlsson offer sheet means for Celebrini’s Sharks contract

On Friday, restricted free agent Carlsson signed a five-year, $90 million offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers. That’s a league-record $18 million AAV.

Celebrini, approaching the final year of his entry-level contact, is not an RFA, like Carlsson. So while Celebrini is eligible for an extension as of July 1, he’s not eligible for an offer sheet this summer.

So long as the Sharks take care of business with Celebrini this offseason — and there’s no reason to believe that they won’t — there’s no offer sheet coming for Celebrini.

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The big change simply is resetting your own expectations for what Celebrini is going to make on his next contract.

The 21-year-old Carlsson got an offer sheet because of how good he is for his age.

There’s no question about 20-year-old Celebrini’s quality: As just a sophomore in the NHL, he was fourth in Hart Trophy voting, a conversation that even Carlsson doesn’t approach.

In a March poll with 26 NHL executives, coaches, and scouts, San Jose Hockey Now asked which U23 player they would start their franchise with, center Celebrini or New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer.

Of those 26 league sources, 21 took Celebrini over Schaefer; Carlsson was the only other player who might belong in this conversation, albeit a distant third, according to the pollsters.

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Point is, proven special second-year players get taken care of before their ELC ends, à la Sidney Crosby in the summer of 2007. And Celebrini is special.

That’ll be Celebrini, unless the Sharks are cheap (they won’t be) or he doesn’t want to be here (there’s no indication of that).

“I want to commit to this team and be here,” Celebrini said in his April exit interview, “I love it here.”

He reaffirmed that this week, telling Luke Fox of Sportsnet, “Looking at what we have and what we’re building, I think we should all be excited for things to come.”

In May, SJHN projected Celebrini’s next contract compared to other recent superstars in their sophomore seasons like Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. Using percentage of the salary cap as a guide — this year’s cap is $104 million — I landed at $15-16 million AAV, depending on the length of the deal, as a reasonable projection.

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But Carlsson’s $18 million figure might blow that up … if Celebrini’s camp chooses to use it as their bar.

“He can definitely play off of it,” the agent said. “But [Sharks owner] Hasso Plattner and [Ducks owner] Henry Samueli have plenty of cash.”

For what it’s worth, the maximum contract a player can sign is 20 percent of the salary cap; that’s $20.8 million AAV in a $104 million cap.

“I’m not sure how worried he is about those other guys,” Sharks GM Mike Grier said when asked this week about comparing Celebrini’s next contract to RFAs Carlsson and Connor Bedard. “He’s kind of a step above them in my view.”

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That said, the cap is rising rapidly and is projected to come in around $113.5 million for the 2027-28 NHL season.

So, this agent isn’t concerned for the Sharks: “Again, wealthy owner and plenty of space now, plus increase to $113 million.”

And it looks like even more in the coming years.