Does Conor McGregor have path to win vs. Max Holloway at UFC 329?

Nevertheless, offensive volume – no matter how clever – comes with a price.

Enter McGregor.

Despite often being stereotyped as a counter striker with limited tools, McGregor is a deceptively diverse fighter who heavily utilizes pressure to help kickstart his rhythm and open up opportunities.

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Operating out of a southpaw stance, McGregor, particularly in his prime, masterfully dictated distance, tossing out feints and fakes that took up a presence of their own. The former champ-champ commands a wide arsenal of strikes, whether he is throwing spinning kicks, shovel hooks or shoulder shrugs.

Nevertheless, a lot of McGregor’s weapons are primarily used in a corralling effort to help get his opponents into his preferred left-handed kill zone.

A well-known tool in the Irish fighter’s wheelhouse, McGregor’s left cross is about as dynamic as they come. Whether he is launching his left from inside-slips over the top or taking the inside angle off the counter, the 37-year-old’s placement has been pristine.

What is most impressive about McGregor’s accuracy is the way in which he utilizes angles to adjust to his oncoming opposition (who are typically trying to enter or escape as far from the power side as possible). From his step-offs to the side, to the way in which McGregor pivots his feet, all allow for the SBG Ireland fighter to pitch his punches in a variety of forms.

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Although McGregor can have a somewhat bladed stance, he displayed more flexibility in his last fight as far as being more forward-facing goes, as well as showing some stance-switching tactics.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway point of interest: Potential grappling threats

Considering that McGregor won the wrestling the last time out, no one should be too shocked if this party ends up hitting the floor Saturday.

However, since their initial encounter thirteen years ago, grappling has not exactly been McGregor’s friend in fights. That said, it’s hard to deny that McGregor’s grappling sample size is a tricky one.

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Sure, he got dominated by Khabib Nurmagomedov as everyone else did, but it’s also easy to forget the small successes and late-won round from McGregor in that fight. And when looking at the dope mount he hit on Dennis Siver or the Curu-Curu sweep he scored on Nate Diaz, it would seem that McGregor has a preternatural ability for picking up technical detail, and I’m not ready to count him out from a grappling perspective here.

But with McGregor being out of action for five years and sustaining yet another leg injury his last time out, it’s hard to know exactly where his grappling is at headed into this rematch. Should McGregor get Holloway down with ease, he will likely have to work extra hard if he means to control a slippery fighter like Holloway this time around.

Holloway’s superb striking may hallmark a large part of his brand, but the Hawaiian has quietly made consistent improvements to his counter grappling, maintaining a takedown defense rate north of 80 percent. Even when having his takedown defense tested by some of the best wrestlers at featherweight, Holloway has been able to snuff out a large majority of the shots sent his way (even smoothly re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own on occasion).

Now granted, Charles Oliveria was able to make takedowns look uncharacteristically easy on Holloway last time out, I’m just not so sure that McGregor will be bringing that same level of threat.

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Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway odds

The oddsmakers and the public favor the Hawaiian fighter, listing Holloway -235 and McGregor +182 via FanDuel.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway prediction, pick

All the noise and speculations of layoffs aside, this fight, from a stylistic perspective, comes down to directionality and prolonged exchanges.

Both McGregor and Holloway traditionally do their best work coming forward. However, the difference between this fight and their first fight is that one of them has learned how to properly fight off the back foot – and it’s not “Mystic Mac.”

As I pointed out before his immortalized knockout over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, Holloway’s striking, particularly his kicks and counters off the back foot, have been extra potent since his last loss to Alexander Volkanovski.

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Even in this latter stage of Holloway’s striking evolution that sees him sitting down harder on his punches and kicks alike, the 33-year-old still shows good reactions in the heat of the fire and is prompt about getting back on the clock in regards to circling back to the center and resetting.