Ben Johnson’s answer was unmistakably purposeful and undeniably shrewd.
When he was asked how his team is handling the hype generated by winning 11 games last season and coming up just shy of making the NFC championship game, the Chicago Bears head coach pounced on the chance to fire up his players. Johnson went out of his way to highlight the popular narrative that this year’s Bears may struggle to duplicate last season’s division title or double-digit win total.
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“Well, we’re the No. 1 regression candidate,” Johnson told reporters during his Friday morning news conference, “so I think we have plenty of motivation ourselves.”
There’s no question that the Bears are widely considered to be a team that could backslide this season. There have been an abundance of offseason stories, podcast segments, YouTube videos and Reddit posts devoted to the subject.
The Bears, as the theory goes, benefited from an incredible run of success in close games last season. Including the playoffs, the Bears won a league-high eight games by fewer than seven points. Their seven high-wire-act wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter set an NFL record.
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A huge component of Chicago’s success in Johnson’s first season as head coach was also an NFL-best plus-22 turnover margin. A defense built on disguising coverages, punching at the ball and jumping passing lanes forced a league-high 33 turnovers while Caleb Williams and other skill position players on the Bears’ offense did an admirable job taking care of the ball.
Sustaining league-best results in both of those high-variance categories will not be easy. Williams could be clutch in the fourth quarter again, yet the Bears still might not pile up so many one-score victories. The Bears’ defense could still excel at confusing quarterbacks yet wind up with only plus-10 in turnover margin.
The other challenge facing Chicago is a treacherous schedule loaded with projected playoff contenders. Chicago’s opponents have the highest combined 2025 winning percentage (.550) of any NFL team. Six of the Bears’ games are against the Lions, Packers and Vikings in the rugged NFC North. They also host the Eagles and Patriots, and visit the Bills and defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks.
In other words, the Bears could be a better team than they were a year ago and still have a tough time reaching 11 wins.
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The counterargument in favor of the Bears begins with Williams, now in his third year in the NFL and his second season in Johnson’s system. The former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall draft pick has always boasted the arm talent to make every conceivable throw. Now he has shed 10-15 pounds to improve his mobility and playmaking while also focusing on his pre-snap reads and accuracy on routine throws.
Aiding Williams is an offense that returns many of its key pieces. Tight end Colston Loveland is an ascendant weapon poised to take a big leap. So are young receivers Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze.
Throw in an opportunistic Dennis Allen-led defense that should again be above average, and there’s reason to believe the Bears could survive a brutal schedule and some regression in turnover margin and close-game luck. The development of their young stars on offense could easily offset that.
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The question that Johnson fielded in his Friday news conference was in response to an off-hand comment Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen made Thursday. Coen claimed that “the best part of coaching the Jacksonville Jaguars” was the fact that no one in the national media talks about his small-market team.
Pulling his phone out of his pocket and clicking on the NFL website, Coen said, “I’m curious if I see any photos or anything about the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think I’ll scroll right on through. I think I’ll see 40 pictures of Caleb Williams and I won’t see a single thing about any of our players on here. So it’s beautiful!”
To Coen, that’s an easy yet authentic way to motivate his team.
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To Johnson, so is the regression narrative surrounding the Bears.
He could have downplayed it or ignored it. Instead, without prompting, Johnson brought it up Friday in an effort to keep his team driven and focused.
