Some NFL preseasons are loaded with the excitement of training camp battles, especially those among quarterbacks vying for the top spot the the depth chart heading into Week 1. This is not going to be one of those preseasons.
After a notably underwhelming quarterback class in the 2026 NFL Draft, there aren’t too many starting jobs up for grabs heading into the coming season. Nearly every team has a veteran already entrenched in starting jobs behind center, and only a few teams have even a hint of uncertainty about which quarterback will be their QB1 in Week 1.
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Outside of those teams, the most excitement in the lead up to the regular season might come from various quarterbacks’ races against the clock to return from injury. Kansas City Chiefs veteran Patrick Mahomes and Denver Broncos third-year Bo Nix each sustained season-ending injuries late last year, though both have stated their desire to be available to start Week 1. A few other quarterbacks outside of the AFC West face similar ticking clocks after their own season-ending injuries.
With roughly two months to go before the start of the 2026 regular season, USA TODAY Sports predicted the starting quarterbacks for all 32 NFL teams in Week 1:
NFL QUARTERBACKS: From the Chiefs to the Jets, ranking every team’s QB situation
Week 1 starting quarterback predictions
AFC East
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There’s no doubt here. The Bills are going to be rolling with the 2024 NFL MVP at the start of the 2026 season. Allen finished 2025 with 3,668 passing yards and 39 total touchdowns (25 passing, 14 rushing). Though the Bills’ postseason runs with Allen have all ended short of an AFC championship and Super Bowl appearance, Buffalo is hoping new head coach Joe Brady will push the team over the hump.
The Dolphins stripped their roster down for parts in the offseason, including releasing quarterback and former first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa. In to replace him is Willis, the former Packers backup who follows new Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and new Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley from Green Bay. There are no other real candidates to start behind center in Miami to begin the 2026 season. Second-year Quinn Ewers failed to seize the starting role in three chances last year, so Willis is the clear No. 1 option to be the Dolphins’ Week 1 starter.
New England Patriots: Drake Maye
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The 2025 MVP runner-up in his second season in the NFL? Yeah, he’s going to be the Patriots’ Week 1 starter. Obviously. Maye’s first season with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was a resounding success, as he led the NFL with a 72.0% completion rate while also throwing for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns. Maye also led the Patriots to the Super Bowl in his second season – the first time New England had been in the Big Game since the Tom Brady era.
New York cycled through three different starting quarterbacks (Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook) in 2025, and only one of them (Cook) remains on the roster heading into 2026. Along with trading Fields and letting Taylor walk in the offseason, the Jets traded a sixth-round pick to the Raiders to reunite with Smith. All expectations are that Smith, who will be a free agent after this season, is a bridge quarterback to the Jets’ next crack at drafting a franchise quarterback with one of their three first-rounders in 2027.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
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Jackson has won two MVP awards, including one unanimously in 2019. Though he only has one more year on his contract after 2026 and is still waiting a likely extension, there’s no doubt who will start for the Ravens to begin 2026. New head coach Jesse Minter has no reason to shake things up behind center, even after Jackson missed time in 2025 and compiled a losing record (6-7) in games he did start.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Barring injury, Burrow is another one of the locks to be his team’s starting quarterback in Week 1. The Bengals’ veteran has stated the confidence he feels in the 2026 iteration of the team matches how he felt about the 2019 LSU Tigers team before he led them to a national championship in college. Burrow has had poor injury luck during his career so far, but he has thrived when healthy. The main question that remains for the Bengals is whether their defensive upgrades – trading for Dexter Lawrence and signing Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook – will be enough to help out Burrow and the offense for once.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
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The least certain Week 1 quarterback situation so far on this list belongs to the Cleveland Browns. Naturally. Cleveland took a big swing when it traded for Watson then signed him to a five-year, $230 million deal that was fully guaranteed. Things have not worked out perfectly. The veteran has played in just 19 games across the first four seasons of his contract thanks to various injuries and an 11-game suspension in 2022 related to sexual assault allegations that emerged in 2021.
In 2025, Watson missed the season after the torn Achilles he sustained in 2024 ruptured again in January. That spring, the Browns drafted Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, and entering 2026, it appears as though only Sanders has a shot at the Week 1 starting job. Ultimately, the money Cleveland has committed to Watson in 2026 – the last year of his deal – will be enough of a sunk cost for the Browns to feel as though they need to give him a shot with new head coach Todd Monken. Watson is the more likely Week 1 starter, but his leash will be very short if Monken and the Browns feel Sanders would give them a better chance to win and/or value his development over sticking with the aging veteran.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers says this is his last season in the NFL, and the Steelers just spent another offseason courting him to return. Pittsburgh signed former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy to lead the team after Mike Tomlin stepped down – a notable departure from its past MO of bringing in young, up-and-coming defensive coordinators. The Steelers also did not sign a veteran quarterback in the early portion of free agency. There’s no chance Pittsburgh will have done all of that to help convince Rodgers not to retire yet only to not have him start in Week 1.
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AFC South
Houston Texans: C.J. Stoud
Stroud‘s 2026 performance will be under a microscope after he struggled in the 2025 postseason. Though the Texans decided to exercise the fifth-year option on his rookie deal, general manager Nick Caserio did not offer Stroud a long-term extension this offseason. Still, the fourth-year signal-caller is the clear man to start in Week 1 and the short-term future in Houston. Will Stroud be their Week 1 starter in 2027? 2028? We’ll have to wait and see.
Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones
Barring a setback in Jones’ road to recovery from his Achilles, he’s going to be the man behind center when the Colts’ offense takes the field against the Ravens in Week 1. In his first year within head coach Shane Steichen’s offensive, Jones looked like an MVP candidate for the first half of the season. His performance was enough to earn him a two-year, $88 million extension in the offseason despite his injury, further locking him into the starting spot.
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Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence just had one of the best seasons of his career playing under rookie head coach Liam Coen in 2025. His 29 touchdowns set a career high, and his 2.1% interception rate was the second-lowest of his career. By the end of the season, the former No. 1 overall pick looked more confident than he ever has in the pros. The result was a 13-4 record and a playoff appearance for Jacksonville. Lawrence will start Week 1 in 2026 looking to build on his momentum.
Ward, the No. 1 overall pick in 2025, had a shaky rookie season as the Titans dealt with coaching issues and injuries to key players. Poor offensive line play didn’t help, as Ward faced 230 pressures – ninth-most in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus – as a rookie. He didn’t help himself with 55 sacks taken, either. Ward gets a second shot as an NFL starter in 2026 with more help from an improved offensive supporting cast – headlined by No. 4 pick Carnell Tate – and a new coaching staff led by head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.
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AFC West
Nix led the NFL with his seven game-winning drives in 2025 en route to a 14-3 season that earned the Broncos the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The only point of hesitation surrounding Nix being the Broncos’ Week 1 starter is the ankle injury he suffered in the divisional round of the playoffs. The ailment required surgery and knocked him out of the AFC championship game. So long as Nix is healthy by Sept. 14’s season opener against the Chiefs, he’ll get the start.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes is Mahomes. The only way the Chiefs’ superstar two-time MVP doesn’t start in Week 1 is if his knee is not fully recovered from the ACL and LCL tears sustained in December. Early returns from training camp show he may be ready.
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Las Vegas Raiders: Kirk Cousins
The Raiders are probably the most interesting team to keep an eye on in training camp and heading into Week 1. On one hand, they just drafted Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick with the hopes he can be their quarterback of the future. On the other, they signed Cousins, a veteran, in free agency to be the bridge quarterback before Mendoza becomes the full-time starter.
As things currently stand, Las Vegas’ investment in Cousins seems to suggest he’ll start at least the first few games of the season. That would let Mendoza work up to NFL speed on the bench behind him. But there is a chance Mendoza shines in training camp and preseason action to the point where the Raiders’ brass decides there’s no reason to wait. Injuries could also be a factor with Cousins entering his age-38 season three years removed from an Achilles injury. For now, Cousins is still the most likely Week 1 starter.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
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Herbert is coming off of his second Pro Bowl season and one in which he matched his career high with 11 wins. Though he was among NFL leaders with 54 sacks taken, Pro Football Focus also had him as the most pressured quarterback in the league last year with 288 defensive pressures faced. Herbert’s pressure-to-sack ratio of 20.8% was eighth in the league despite the high volume of pressure, and the Chargers should have no doubt that he’s their guy entering 2026. If the offensive line can stay healthy, Herbert’s pairing with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel should pay dividends for Los Angeles‘ offense.
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NFC East
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Despite Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones’ efforts to find a developmental quarterback behind Prescott – Trey Lance, Joe Milton and now Sam Howell – none have really challenged Prescott for the starting gig. The veteran signed a four-year, $240 million extension in 2024 and still has two years left on his deal. After a 2025 season that saw him lead the NFL in completions (404), he’s going to be back starting in Week 1 barring any injuries.
Dart showed promise as a rookie quarterback leading a flawed team and offense during the 2025 season. The upcoming 2026 season is set to be his first as a full-time starter after he began his rookie year on the bench behind Russell Wilson. With young wideout Malik Nabers back healthy and new head coach John Harbaugh leading the team, the Giants are hoping to see Dart take another step forward in his development.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
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The Eagles leaned more on Hurts’ arm in 2025 after a run-heavy approach in 2024 led them to a Super Bowl title, and while the results were mixed, Philly still won the NFC East for a second straight year. Former leading receiver A.J. Brown is gone now to New England via a trade in June, and Hurts will be leading a different look on offense starring DeVonta Smith and Makai Lemon out wide and schemed by new OC Sean Mannion.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year was not able to follow up his outstanding first season with as successful a sophomore campaign. Most of that had to do with injuries: A knee sprain, hamstring strain and dislocated left elbow limited Daniels to seven games in 2025. Yet given how good he was as a rookie – leading the Commanders to 12 wins and an NFC championship game appearance – there’s no doubt Washington will have him behind center Week 1 if he’s healthy.
NFC North
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Williams took a huge leap forward in his second season in 2025, playing his first year with rookie head coach Ben Johnson. The Bears’ “Iceman” led the NFL with six fourth-quarter comebacks and led Chicago to its first playoff win since 2010 – over the Packers, no less. This year he also earned a spot on the cover of Madden NFL 27. As much as Johnson might say backup quarterback Tyson Bagent deserves to be a starting quarterback somewhere, that won’t be happening with the Bears to start 2026.
MORE: Caleb Williams cover ‘different’ for Madden masterminds. Here’s why
Since coming to Detroit from the Rams in the Matthew Stafford Trade of 2021, Goff has been outstanding. In each of the last three seasons, he’s thrown for more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns while keeping his interception count respectable. Though the Lions’ offense struggled in its first season without former OC Ben Johnson, Goff still shined brightly enough to earn his fifth career Pro Bowl nod. He has no competition for the starting job in Detroit heading into next year.
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Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
Three seasons into Love’s time as the Packers’ full-time starter, it’s safe to say Green Bay once again managed to find its guy. In that time, he’s averaging 3,950 yards, 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions per 17 games. Love’s injury issues have held him back slightly, but Green Bay proved its commitment to him this offseason by letting backup Malik Willis walk and take a starting gig with the Miami Dolphins. So going into 2026, there’s even less competition for the Packers’ starting job.
Minnesota Vikings: Kyler Murray
The 2025 season was J.J. McCarthy‘s first real season in the pros after missing all of his 2024 rookie year with a torn meniscus, and it did not go smoothly. McCarthy struggled to get on the same page with star wideout Justin Jefferson all year, frequently looked out-of-sorts in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense and battled more injury troubles that limited him to 10 games.
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This offseason, the Vikings brought in Murray to “compete” for the starting job after his release from the Arizona Cardinals. But based on the pro resumes each quarterback has put together so far, it’s hard to envision McCarthy beating out Murray for the Week 1 starting job.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Tua Tagovailoa
The Falcons’ quarterback situation mirrors that of the Vikings. Their young quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., struggled in his first year as the full-time starter and dealt with injuries that limited him to half of a season. As Penix works his way back from an ACL tear, Atlanta has brought in a former first-round pick of its own in Tagovailoa to compete for the starting job after his previous team released him. With the uncertainty of Penix’s recovery status after a third career ACL tear – first in the pros after two in college – and ESPN reporting that “Tagovailoa has a clear advantage” in the Falcons’ QB1 race, it’s easy to pencil in the more veteran signal-caller for Atlanta’s Week 1 start.
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MORE: Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr.both out as Falcons training camp starts
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
Young struggled to adjust to the faster, bigger pro game early in his career. Since he returned to the starting role after head coach Dave Canales benched him in early 2024, he’s played some of his best football. Young is still an outlier among quarterbacks given his diminutive stature, but his pairing with 2025 first-round wideout Tetairoa McMillan was an immediate success. The Panthers made the playoffs after winning the NFC South at 8-9 last year, and they couldn’t have done it without Young’ six game-winning drives, tied with Caleb Williams for second-most in the NFL last year. He’ll be the starter at least one more year in Carolina, and he’s under contract through 2027 after the team exercised his fifth-year option.
New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough
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Shough didn’t make his first start for the Saints until Week 9 as a rookie last year, but he showed more promise as a passer in his nine starts than either of the quarterbacks drafted before him: Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart. In New Orleans‘ last nine games of the year, Shough tallied 2,256 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s good for a 17-game pace of 4,261 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Plus, his 69.2% completion rate from his first Week 9 start through the end of the year was tied with Drake Maye for third-best in that stretch. Saints fans should be looking forward to a full season with Shough behind center working in head coach Kellen Moore’s offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield may be on an expiring contract entering 2026, but he has no competition for the starting gig in Tampa. During a 2025 season in which three of the Bucs’ top receivers missed significant time with injuries, Mayfield still managed to throw for nearly 3,700 yards and 26 touchdowns. Jake Browning, the Buccaneers’ backup in 2026, had to be replaced by Joe Flacco in Cincinnati last year after struggling so much while filling in for the injured Joe Burrow.
MORE: Bucs QB Baker Mayfield says he feels ‘disrespected’ amid contract impasse
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NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett
Time may be ticking for Brissett’s tenure with the Cardinals after the team balked on offering him a multi-year extension, settling on a one-year revised deal instead. But for now, he’s set to be Arizona’s Week 1 starter. Rookie Carson Beck, whom the Cardinals selected in the third round of this year’s draft, is waiting in the wings and likely will get a shot at starting some time later this year.
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
The Rams may have drafted quarterback Ty Simpson in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, but this is still Stafford’s ship. The reigning NFL MVP came up just short of leading Los Angeles to another Super Bowl appearance last year after his 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns led the NFL. Simpson’s day will come but that day is not Sept. 10, when the Rams kick off their season against the 49ers in Australia.
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San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy
Speaking of the 49ers, the only thing that could stop Purdy from making his Week 1 start for the team is an injury. Unfortunately, given San Francisco’s horrendous injury luck, that’s not out of the question. Still, the 49ers aren’t paying the former Mr. Irrelevant $53 million per year not to start, even with backup quarterback Mac Jones looking as capable as he did filling in for eight starts last season.
Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold
The reigning Super Bowl champions may have let their lead running back (and Super Bowl MVP), Kenneth Walker, depart in free agency, but they’re not going to make a change at quarterback. Darnold proved in 2025 that his success with the Vikings in 2024 was no fluke, compiling another 4,000-yard season with another 14 wins to lead Seattle to the NFC No. 1 seed and Super Bowl 60 title. How he performs without Klint Kubiak masterminding the offense is a different question, but there aren’t any signal-callers in the Seahawks’ building coming for Darnold’s job to start 2026.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Which quarterbacks will start in Week 1? Predicting all 32 spots
