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Why Arkansas basketball shouldn’t be overconfident right now

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The Arkansas basketball Bahamas tour was a success. We aren’t revising that fundamental assessment. The Razorbacks showed a lot of promise, flying across the court on defense and dominating at that end of the floor. They showed shotmaking ability, balance, versatility, depth, and tenacity. Their young players began to grow up. Scorers showed they could pass the ball and facilitate offense. Players viewed as defensive stoppers showed they could contribute in a meaningful way at the offensive end of the floor. UA did all it did without one of its expected key pieces, Miikka Muurinen. There was a lot to like, and nothing which is happening elsewhere in college basketball makes us change that view.

However (you knew that was coming, right?), the things that do happen elsewhere in college basketball reinforce the point that while Arkansas looks really good, other teams can look really good as well. A team can be good yet not reach its goal if the competition is even better. Best of Arkansas Sports offered some perspective on this truth: 

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Texas A&M head coach Bucky McMillan was watching how Arkansas let off the gas pedal some in that one half and used it to motivate his own guys when they took the floor against the same opponent on Tuesday. The Toros del Valle ‘played Arkansas the first half to an eight-point game yesterday,’ McMillan recalled on Tuesday. ‘So we didn’t want to see a half when we came out and took that foot off the gas and got selfish.’

“Message received. The Aggies saw Arkansas’ 42-point margin of victory vs the Toros and nearly doubled that, beating the same team by 80 points a day later.  That, folks, is what’s called some major cognitive dissonance. If Texas A&M isn’t even ranked in most major Top 25 polls, but is able to devastate a common opponent by 38 more points than the Hogs did, what does that say about how good Arkansas really is at this point?

“It says that while Arkansas has loaded up with impressive players operating at a high level against sparring partners, so have other programs. The Aggies, lest we forget, boast guys the Razorbacks wanted in the past too. For instance, there’s former Razorback commit Jalen Shelley, who bailed once Eric Musselman left in spring of 2024. And who can forget guard PJ Haggerty, the talented mercenary Arkansas kicked the tires on last offseason when he portaled out of Memphis?”

The takeaway is not “A&M is better than Arkansas,” because it isn’t. The takeaway from this A&M story is that other teams are getting better and are working just as hard as Arkansas is. The SEC will be a grind once again. The Hogs have to work hard every day on making sure they maximize their talent and make use of every last available resource. Failure to do so will result in failure to reach the Final Four … or at least the summit of this team’s evident potential. 

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