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Rest meets opportunity in Phoenix on Sunday night.
The Mercury (-5.5) host the Portland Fire at Mortgage Matchup Center following a four-day break, and our Fire vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks expect the well-rested home favorites to pull away and cover on Aug. 16.
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Fire vs Mercury prediction
Fire vs Mercury best bet: Mercury -5.5 (-105)
The Phoenix Mercury should bury the Portland Fire tonight, and the Mercury laying 5.5 points at home feels like a gift.
The Mercury lead the league in fouls drawn (23.0 PFD) while generating 19.7 points per game on 25.8 free throw attempts.
Conversely, the Fire commit 20.7 personal fouls per contest, which should make veteran scorers like Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and DeWanna Bonner smile.
Fresh off four days of practice to rest and tighten their half-court schemes, I’m expecting a massive offensive night for the Mercury.
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Play the Mercury to -6.5.
Covers
COVERS INTEL: Across their last five games, the Phoenix Mercury boast the second-best assist percentage at 74.6%.
Fire vs Mercury same-game parlay
We’ll exchange the Mercury spread for a moneyline play for the same reasons detailed above.
Alyssa Thomas lives at the charity stripe, and I’m expecting her free throws to aid in scoring at least 17 points, like she has in five of her previous eight contests.
I also expect Phoenix to lean on DeWanna Bonner’s perimeter shooting. She’s made at least two triples in four of her previous six games and meets a Fire defense that’s surrendered 11.0 made threes per game in their previous five.
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Fire vs Mercury SGP
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Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 points
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DeWanna Bonner Over 1.5 made threes
Fire vs Mercury player prop pick
DeWanna Bonner Over 11.5 points (-115)
Bonner steps into an ideal scoring environment in Saturday’s high-octane matchup against Portland. The Fire surrender 11.0 made three-pointers per game at a 37.4% clip while conceding 22.9 free-throw attempts.
In what I expect to be a 100-possession game, Bonner will find clean perimeter spot-ups and frequent trips to the charity stripe against an overaggressive, foul-prone defense averaging 20.7 fouls per game.
We’re getting a good price for Bonner, and it’s playable to -125.
Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
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Best bet: 14-10, +1.13 units
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Player prop: 4-8, -4.50 units
Fire vs Mercury odds
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Spread: Portland +5.5 (-108) | Phoenix -5.5 (-112)
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Moneyline: Portland +180 | Phoenix -218
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Over/Under: Over 176.5 | Under 176.5
Fire vs Mercury trend
Mercury are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Western Conference. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Fire vs Mercury
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Location |
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
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Date |
Sunday, August 16, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
7 p.m. ET |
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TV |
ESPN |
Fire vs Mercury latest injuries
Fire: Sania Feagin (Out).
Mercury: Kelsey Plum (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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