UFC Sacramento best betting props, parlays and picks | Hernandez vs. RoboCop

UFC Sacramento happens this weekend (Sat., Aug. 22, 2026) at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. This is UFC’s first trip to NorCal, a veritable hotbed of mixed martial arts (MMA) history, since 2019 (when they headlined by Germaine de Randamie vs. Aspen Ladd). There’s a better main event this time around, with Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues in the Middleweight division.

The co-main is Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino in the Heavyweight division. There’s also Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze. After that, the name value on this card really drops off. Rounding out the main card is MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones, Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves and Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman.

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The featured “Prelims” undercard bout is Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas. There’s also Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev and Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Sacramento Main Card Money Line Odds

Anthony Hernandez (-166) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+140)

“Fluffy” Hernandez lost a lot of aura in his last fight. He chased down Sean Strickland and ended up running into jabs and a massive knee to the gut that put him down (see it here). That snapped an eight-fight win streak for Hernandez, who looked unstoppable in some of those fights … especially his one-sided beatdown of Michel Pereira (see it here).

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“RoboCop” Rodrigues, meanwhile, is on a three-fight win streak. He extended that with his first round knockout over Brunno Ferreira in March (see that here). That was a revenge fight for Rodrigues — he was KO’d by Ferreira back in 2023. Rodrigues’ other wins in that streak are a decision over Roman Kopylov and a brutal finish over Jack Hermansson (see it here).

I picked Hernandez against Strickland and, before that fight, thought he would beat anyone in the division. His relentless, mauling style really lulled me in. But now, after that loss, I’m finding myself doubting him. His forward moving style looked less marauding and more basic and plodding, especially after he started to get chewed up by Strickland’s striking. Hernandez ended up getting tagged with 110 significant strikes in less than three rounds (while landing only 55 of his own).

Rodrigues doesn’t have the same game as Strickland. He doesn’t sit back on the counter. He likes to move forward and throw bombs. I’m not sure what’s going to happen if he does that against Hernandez. Will he get through and hurt Hernandez? The only person with similar lights out power that Hernandez has faced was Marc-Andre Barriault back in 2022, who he subbed.

Against Barriault, Hernandez chased him down and threw high before level changing to takedown attempts. After failing to get the takedown he got hurt in the clinch and that forced him to back up. Barriault was then able to come forward and land on him. Hernandez shook that off and then tried his approach over again and managed to get some takedowns. On the ground, Hernandez was able to land good shots and wear Barriault down before eventually getting the arm triangle.

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I use Barriault as an example because he has a similar striking profile to Rodrigues. However, Rodrigues’ ground game is light years ahead of Barriault. He’s one of these guys who we forget is an elite grappler because he is so successful at smashing people into next week with his fists.

If Hernandez’s approach is to go forward, hit high and then duck down for takedowns on Rodrigues, then he might struggle to complete the takedown and then hold Rodrigues down. Hernandez is also very busy on top, which might lead to opportunities for Rodrigues to sweep or go for submissions off his back. If Hernandez is struggling to spend a lot of this fight on the ground and is being forced to spend most of it trading with Rodrigues, then I think he will be in trouble. If the fight with Barriault was just on the feet, then I think there is a chance that Barriault’s power becomes too much for Hernandez.

So, in short, I like Rodrigues’ moneyline. I am a little cautious, though, given how Rodrigues has fumbled in the past (like his loss to Jared Cannonier in his debut main event).

I’m interested in the round total for this one. It’s set at 3.5 and I think that’s a little high. I like the under, but so do most people. The odds on that are just -215. I’m going to look at “fight to start round x” bets for my best bet. I think this one is probably over somewhere around the second and third rounds. Fight to start round 4 – no is available at -170. I think that’s great value.

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Best bet: Fight to Start Round 4 – No (-170)

Serghei Spivac (+142) vs. Vitor Petrino (-170)

Spivac has been consistently inconsistent since 2022. He’s gone 3-3 over that time and is coming off a decision win over Ante Delija in February. His other wins include a main event armbar finish over Marcin Tybura (see it here) and a triangle finish on Derrick Lewis (see it here). The losses are TKO’s to Ciryl Gane and Jailton Almeida and a decision loss against Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

Petrino, on the other hand, is undefeated (3-0) after moving up to Heavyweight. His debut in the division was a submission over Austen Lane (see it here). He then KO’d Thomas Petersen (see it here). In March he won a bloody decision over Steven Asplund. He moved up in weight after back to back stoppage losses to Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith.

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When it comes to the striking exchanges, I think this is a very good match-up for Petrino. His power and speed have both come with him to Heavyweight and Spivac has some durability issues. Spivac also gets hit a lot, absorbing 4.23 significant strikes a minute while landing just 3.57.

When it comes to grappling, Spivac has the edge. I still remember Petrino’s bone-headed takedown on Smith which led to a guillotine loss. Spivac is good at snatching up submissions off opponent’s mistakes. If Petrino is not careful he might end up getting tapped. If Spivac were much bigger and stronger than Petrino, this would have a better chance of happening. As things stand, though, these two are pretty similar size and Spivac doesn’t have a lot of bulk to overpower Vetrino with in the clinch.

I don’t think there’s any way this goes the distance. If it does, God help us. That’s reflected in the round total being 1.5. I like the over here, as I expect the finish to come in the second or third round. You can get that at -210. For my best bet, though, I’ll just go with Petrino. I think his firepower will be enough to put the Polar Bear down.

Best bet: Vitor Petrino moneyline (-170)

Reinier de Ridder (-375) vs. Roman Dolidze (+295)

de Ridder is on a two-fight losing skid. That’s after he lost a decision to Caio Borralho in March and had the snot beat out of him by Brendan Allen in Oct. 2026 (see that here). He was 21-2 before those fights, with his only losses being to Anatoly Malykhin in ONE Championship. RDR’s UFC wins include victories over Robert Whittaker, Kevin Holland and Bo Nickal (by TKO knee — see it here).

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Dolidze is on a two-fight losing streak, too. He dropped a decision to Christian Leroy Duncan in March and, before that, he was choked out by UFC Sacramento’s Hernandez. He’d won three fights before that happened. Though, there should be some asterisks on those. His win over Marvin Vettori was clean, but he also beat Kevin Holland after Holland suffered an injury. And he also beat Anthony Smith in a glorified sparring match.

Dolidze looked quite old in that Duncan fight, where he landed just 10 significant strikes. He threw 34, which means his accuracy was a woeful 29 percent. He did win the third round of that fight, though, taking down a tired Duncan and holding him there for three minutes.

On paper, that approach seems doomed to fail against de Ridder. Indeed, de Ridder is probably too dangerous on the ground for Dolidze to mess with there (even if he gets on top). To win this, I think Dolidze will need to be aggressive on the feet — just like Borralho was in their recent fight. Dolidze hasn’t looked very aggressive in his recent fights, though, other than that Vettori bout where he was trying to get revenge for a past loss. Against Duncan he was just backing up the whole time, while getting hit.

de Ridder is also known to sag back and wait for opponents to come to him. This might mean we’re in for a pretty dull fight — especially if we spend the whole thing on the feet. I think there’s a good chance of that happening, with Dolidze opting to stay on the feet and stay out of de Ridder’s submission range. I think de Ridder probably wins that kind of boring fight, due to activity. I think it will be too close to entertain any kind of point spread, though.

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The round total is 2.5 and the over is -140. That’s too good to turn down. Though, I do like de Ridder by decision (+120), too.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-140)

MarQuel Mederos (+220) vs. Mason Jones (-270)

Mederos is now 3-0-1 in UFC after he fought to a draw with Chris Padilla in April. That draw happened because Mederos was deducted a point for an eye poke. The fact the fight ended in a draw after that was very puzzling. Most onlookers (including me) still scored the fight for Padilla (who arguably won every round). Before that draw, Mederos took decisions over Mark Choinski, Austin Hubbard and Landon Quinones.

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Jones was re-signed to UFC to give Jeremy Stephens a fun fight in Iowa. He did just that and won a decision. It looked like he knew his assignment in that fight and was willing to let Stephens brawl it out in front of his hometown fans. Jones is now running with this fun-fight gimmick. He had a “Fight of the Night” with Bolaji Oki after that and scored a second round technical knockout (see it here). Then, in March, he and Axel Sola logged an early candidate for “Fight of the Year,” which Jones won via decision.

Jones is the big favorite and I totally see the reason(s). He’s done much more in the Octagon than Mederos has and it feels like his aggression and activity will be too much for Mederos. However, this version of Jones will give you opportunities to crack him. Jones has gotten away with that because he’s very durable, though. Mederos is going to land on him in this fight, but I’m not sure that he has the power to put the Welshman away.

Mederos might also out-strike Jones in this fight. He has above average accuracy on his sig. strikes at 58 percent. Jones has pretty bad accuracy at 42 percent. He’s more of a spammer than a sniper. But Jones has the kind of striking that doesn’t need to land all the time to impress the judges. He’ll be coming forwards, throwing the kitchen sink at Mederos and even if he’s missing most the time he’s going to look like the winner of a given round.

Jones also has a five-inch reach advantage working in his favor here. All that makes me pretty confident that Jones gets the “W.” And I think we’re probably going to a decision, too, based on both these guys’ recent records.

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Best bet: Fight to Go the Distance – Yes (-145)

Carli Judice (-535) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+400)

Judice is looking better and better with every fight lately. She turned the corner on her career with a head kick knockout over Yuniesy Duben in March, 2025 (see it here). She followed that up with a liver shot technical knockout to Nicolle Calliari a few months later. She won “Performance of the Night” bonuses for those. In February, she took a lopsided decision over Juliana Miller after hurting her on the feet. Judice is now 6-2 as a professional.

Chaves won a split decision over Duben in her proper UFC debut in June. She had come off Contender Series with a fun split decision win over Sofia Montenegro. She’s unbeaten (7-0) and already 29 years old.

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Judice is the big favorite here and that’s because of the improvement she’s shown with her striking. She’s been in a really nice flow state in her recent fights, stringing together combos that don’t just look pretty, but land with power and hurt her opponents. I think it’s most likely that Judice continues to show off that clean striking and that this is just too much for Chaves to handle.

Chaves, though, doesn’t shy away from that kind of fight. She really bites down on the mouthpiece and throws without fear of getting hit. I think that will mean this is a fun fight, but I don’t think it means that Chaves will end up with her hand raised.

Thanks to Judice’s recent finishes, over 2.5 rounds is just -154. That’s my best bet. I think Judice is going to land a lot, but Chaves’ toughness has impressed me . I think these two might go to war and we’ll get a potential fight of the night out of this contest.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-154)

UFC Sacramento ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Shamil Gaziev (-135) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+114)

The wheels have fallen off Gaziev a little since he scored a big knockout over Thomas Petersen in 2025 (see it here). Since then, he was whooped by Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who was coming into UFC Qatar on short notice a week after he fought in the APEX (see it here). He was then TKO’d be Brando Pericic in May (see it here).

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Nzechukwu is 2-1-1 since moving up to Heavyweight. The two wins were finishes over Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski. He was then one of Valter Walker‘s many heel hook victims (see it here). And then, most recently, he fought to a draw with Marcus Buchecha. Nzechukwu was deducted a point for an eye poke in that fight. If it wasn’t for that he would have won 29-28 across the scorecards.

Nzechukwu looks pretty good at times, but his opponents at Heavyweight have been god-awful. Barnett was injured during his walk-in for Pete’s sake. Gaziev is more technical than Nzechukwu, but at Heavyweight I don’t know how important that is — especially against someone with massive reach who fights with a lot of aggression.

In addition to cleaner striking, Gaziev does have the better wrestling game, too. Those two things are enough to tip me over the edge for picking the Russian here.

Best bet: Shamil Gaziev moneyline (-135)

Anthony Wint (-1000) vs. Terrance Chatman (+650)

Wint, a 30 year-old super prospect, won his Contender Series fight with a 34-second technical knockout in August (see it here). That advanced his MMA record to 7-0. Before coming to MMA, he was a stud college football player who had a cup of coffee in the NFL and CFL (go TiCats!).

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Chatman has been drafted in to test Wint. He’s got no appearances on previous UFC products. As a professional, he’s 5-1 with his entire career happening in Fury FC.

I do think there should be some caution around these guys who are massive favorites coming right off Contender Series. I think they book mismatches on Contender Series intentionally to build hype and get views on TikTok. The guys who get these massive knockouts on Contender Series don’t always turn into top fighters in UFC and some even stumble at the first hurdle (like Luke Fernandez earlier this year).

Despite my hesitance over these Contender Series guys, it’s very hard to build a case for Chatman being good enough to beat anyone in UFC. He’s going to have a lot of size on Wint, but I don’t think that will count for much. The 5’11” Wint KO’d a 6’9″ guy in Fury FC. And Wint’s speed is probably going to be the big difference here.

I’ll take the under, since the moneyline for Wint is so ridiculous.

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Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-360)

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Jamall Emmers (+320) vs. Lerryan Douglas (-410)

Emmers beat Hyder Amil by unanimous decision in November. Before that he took out Gabriel Miranda with a first round technical knockout (see it here). He’s now 5-4 in UFC. His most notable moment in the cage is losing to Nate Landwehr in a wild first round (see it here).

Douglas looked incredible in his debut in March. He pieced apart Julian Erosa and finished him in the first round, in Erosa’s backyard at UFC Seattle (see it here). Douglas is now on a six-fight (technical) knockout streak. He won LFA’s title during that run. He’s 14-5 and a bit of a late bloomer, with those five losses happening all prior to 2024.

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Douglas’ striking is really pleasing on the eye. He basically hit Erosa with every hard shot that he threw. Emmers has pretty good defense and a reach advantage, but I’m quite sold on Douglas as a slick knockout artist in this division (albeit perhaps not a Top 10 guy).

I want to pick Douglas, but Emmers’ wrestling has me a little gun shy. The round total is 1.5 and I think that might be a little disrespectful to Emmers. I’ll take the over, thinking he might be able to lock Douglas down early and might even be good enough to upset the newcomer with a decision.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+135)

Nasrat Haqparast (-120) vs. Chris Padilla (+100)

This is Haqparast‘s first fight since he was demolished with a Quillan Salkilld head kick in Oct. 2025 (see it here). That was a sickening knockout and I was seriously concerned for Haqparast after it happened. He was down for a long time. That brutal loss — to one of the best Lightweights on the planet right now — snapped a five-fight win streak for Haqparast. However, that win streak included two razor-thin decisions over Esteban Ribovics and Jared Gordon (I scored both against Haqparast).

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Padilla is on an eight-fight undefeated streak. That includes going 4-0-1 in UFC. Before his weird draw against MarQuel Mederos, he scored wins over Ismael Bonfim, Jai Herbert and Rongzhu. He won his debut fight, over James Llontop, by submission as a +340 underdog (see it here).

I really like what I’ve seen from Padilla over this run. He’s shown that he knows how to win and that he can use his striking, grappling and a good synthesis of the two to get there. Haqparast has been winning, but — as I said above — he’s not been that impressive.

I think Padilla has a great chance of winning this fight, even without Haqparast coming off a brutal knockout loss. Given that recent history, I really love Padilla here.

Best bet: Chris Padilla moneyline (+100)

Marcio Barbosa (-900) vs. Ryan Kuse (+600)

Barbosa cracked Dennis Buzukja to win his UFC debut in April (see it here). That knockout got him a “Performance of the Night” bonus. He got a first round finish on Contender Series, too, over Damon Wilson. He came to UFC via LFA where he was 3-1. The loss was to the very good Gabriel Santos.

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Kuse is an interesting UFC signing. He just fought in Karate Combat a few weeks ago, winning with a head kick. His MMA record is 9-2 with fights in LFA, Titan FC and Fury FC. His best win is over UFC veteran, Kevin Natividad.

It kind of feels like UFC match-making is hyper focused on generating viral KOs at the moment. And this feels like a fight intended to deliver one of those, with Barbosa’s power going up against the free swinging Kuse. I think Barbosa is probably going to deliver that highlight reel finish here. I’ll take the under expecting it to happen quickly (and also covering my bases in case Kuse uncorks something crazy in the first round).

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-315)

Gauge Young (-130) vs. Stan Dorsainvil (+110)

Young took a split decision over Thiago Moises in April. That followed up his unanimous decision win over Maheshate a year ago. He’s now 2-1 in UFC, having lost his debut to Evan Elder. He was on Contender Series in 2024, but lost. There’s no shame in that, though, since he was taking on Quillan Salkilld. And he went to a decision with the man who has since been thrashing Top 10 Lightweights.

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Young was supposed to fight Kody Steele here, but Dorsainvil comes in on somewhat short notice. Dorsainvil is just 5-0, but he’s been a very fun watch in LFA. He’s coming off a technical knockout win over Dan Holt in May.

I’m excited to see what Dorsainvil can do in UFC. He’s extremely athletic and fights with a lot of personality. I think Young might be a bit too well-rounded and polished for him, though, based on Young’s exploits at the UFC level.

I think we might see Dorsainvil stick around and be in some fights, but I’m not sure he’s going to win a ton (especially early on).

Best bet: Gauge Young moneyline (-130)

Jackson McVey (-185) vs. Wes Schultz (+154)

McVey got his first UFC win in April, submitting Sedriques Dumas and nabbing a “Performance of the Night” bonus (see it here). Before that he was submitted by Zach Reese and Brunno Ferreira. He was undefeated before joining UFC as a short notice replacement.

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Schultz also got his first UFC win in his last outing. He submitted Ben Johnston “Down Under” at UFC Perth in May. Before that, he was obliterated by super prospect Damian Pinas (see it here). That was his first fight since graduating from Contender Series. He won his Tuesday night tryout with a Suloev stretch.

This is an interesting one. McVey seems to lack submission defense. And Schultz seems to lack striking defense. McVey’s not a killer on the feet, but he is big and he likes to use his size to tie guys up in a clinch and attack with knees and elbows. McVey’s approach might give Schultz some opportunities to get the fight to the mat, where he does his best work.

Either way, I think there’s a stoppage coming in this fight, with McVey either beating down Schultz or Schultz scrambling and getting on his back for a submission. The round total is 1.5, which I don’t love. I don’t think this finishes super quick, since I think both guys are evenly flawed. I’ll take the over.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-188)

Shanelle Dyer (-750) vs. Elise Reed (+525)

Dyer looked great in her debut in March, TKO’ing Ravena Oliveira in the second round (see it here). That took place in her hometown over at UFC London. That moved her to 7-1. Her lone loss was on Contender Series against the ultra-tough Carol Foro. Before heading to the APEX, Dyer was 3-0 on PFL’s Europe circuit.

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Reed opens the show in Sacramento. She gets this posting thanks to being born here, though now she fights out of New Jersey. She was lit up by the hard-hitting Denise Gomes in her last fight, losing by second round TKO. She’s 4-5 in UFC. Her last win was over Jessica Penne in 2024.

UFC likes booking hometown attractions, but they don’t seem to care about giving them opponents who they stand a good chance against. We saw this in Serbia recently. Reed is really hitable an Dyer throws and lands a lot of volume. I think Dyer is going to be racking up strikes in this bout and that’s either going to lead to a stoppage or a lopsided decision. Reed has been finished in all her UFC losses, so I’ll take a chance with the under here.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-166)

UFC Sacramento Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

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Two-bet parlay: Chris Padilla moneyline and Schultz vs. McVey Over 1.5 rounds (+390)

Most of these fights are pretty lopsided odds-wise. So it’s hard to put together a nice parlay without taking a chance on a big underdog. Padilla is a very slight underdog at +100, so he’s a valuable leg of a parlay. I’ve paired him with the over on Wes Schultz vs. Jackson McVey, since I think that’s too low.

Vitor Petrino vs. Serghei Spivac Under 0.5 rounds (+600)

I’m always hoping a Heavyweight fight is over in the first round. Spivac is chinny and Petrino hits like a truck. I think there’s a good chance Petrino wraps this one up in the first exchange. There’s also a chance Petrino gets himself tapped in record time, too. Ah, Heavyweight.

Same Game Parlay: Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1200)

I played around with the same game parlay on a certain betting site. I think Rodrigues has a chance to stop Hernandez. I think it’s possible Rodrigues defends the takedown and forces Hernandez to trade shots. In that situation, I think Rodrigues’ power breaks Hernandez down and he might be able to get a technical knockout somewhere in the third round.

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