The inaugural season featuring a 12-team College Football Playoff was widely seen as a massive success. More teams meant more opportunity for upsets. Despite no Group of Five teams advancing past the first round, it was still fun to watch non-traditional competitors on the biggest stage. Speculation will only grow this season looking for the next James Madison or Tulane.
Fans should look westward for that answer as the rebirth of the Pac-12 created a power vacuum in the Mountain West Conference. Yet the member institution that ironically sits in the middle of the Pacific Ocean is the program that could surprise folks the most.
Advertisement
Hawaii finished a breakout 2025 with a 9-4 record and an impressive 35-31 win over California in the Hawaii Bowl. The Rainbow Warriors took down other significant opponents like Air Force, Stanford, Colorado State and San Diego State as well. Fans looking for a team that appears poised to make another jump should have their eyes glued to Honolulu and here’s why:
QB Micah Alejado is capable of being a Heisman Trophy finalist
Alejado, a sophomore, was named Mountain West preseason Offensive Player of the Year and for good reason. He threw for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, including back-to-back contests with 400+ yards and a five-game stretch in which he threw three touchdown passes in each. His nine interceptions and 66.3 completion percentage likely dragged his QBR down to its 59.8 level which put him well under anybody’s radar. Should those categories improve he’ll turn a lot of heads in 2026.
Pegging Alejado as a potential Heisman Trophy finalist may be reasonably pushing things but that truly feels like his ceiling. Last year was his first full season under center and his performance was impressive for someone who had very limited snaps prior (70 total attempts in 2024). Alejado beat out veteran Luke Weaver for the starting role which pushed the latter to transfer to San Jose State this season. At the very least, Alejado is going to draw lucrative transfer offers from Power Conference programs by next spring.
Advertisement
Head coach Timmy Chang lured elite talent in the transfer portal
The Rainbow Warriors lost multiple players to the NFL in the offseason including kicker Kansei Matsuzawa and defensive back Peter Manuma. Head coach Timmy Chang managed to fill their voids rather impressively with 16 major transfer commitments. Star wideout Pofele Ashlock, who secured 76 catches for 829 yards and eight touchdowns last year, lost his offensive partners in Jackson Harris (LSU) and Brandon White (Kansas State) to the portal but he’s getting Power Four help in the form of transfers Audric Harris (Washington), Tre Griffiths (Oklahoma State) and Carson Brown (Iowa State).
The running game will benefit from adding DeVon Rice (Kansas State) to assist the team’s second-leading rusher last year in Cam Barfield. When Hawaii ran for over 95 yards in a game, the team went 7-0 in 2025. The Rainbow Warriors’ defense will also be critical factor to their success and the unit only got better in the offseason. Top cornerback Elijah Palmer (two interceptions) returns for his senior season and the defensive line was beefed up considerably.
A highly winnable schedule stays mostly near Hawaii’s time zone
James Madison went undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference and lost just one game total to earn its CFP berth last year. It’s going to take about the same for Hawaii but the Mountain West has more name recognition than the Dukes’ league. The double-edged sword aspect for the Rainbow Warriors, however, is that the toughest opponents departed for the Pac-12 this year. That would leave just Air Force in their path for a potential conference title game berth, but they’ll avoid the Falcons this year as well.
Advertisement
So, Hawaii has a very favorable schedule that still includes tough non-conference bouts with Stanford and Arizona State. The key, though, is the fact that the team won’t have to fly any further than the Mountain Time Zone for an away game except for one visit to face new conference member Northern Illinois on Oct. 24. There’s a good chance Hawaii can put a resume on the table for the CFP Selection Committee that includes an undefeated conference slate and perhaps a loss to one of its two Power Conference foes. That should be enough to gain entry into the 12-team bracket and fans’ hearts.
More college football news and analysis
This article was originally published on www.fansided.com as 3 reasons why Hawaii could be college football’s next Cinderella.
