ACC basketball July tier rankings and projections for 2026-27: Where is Virginia

The NBA Summer League has begun, and the countdown to college basketball season is approaching. Here are preliminary ACC power rankings and projections for the upcoming season.

D- or F tier, in a long rebuild

18: Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets went 2-16 in ACC play last season – ending the season on a 12-game losing streak. The situation is bleak for a program that used to routinely send players to the NBA. Georgia Tech hired Troy’s Coach Scott Cross this offseason to restart another rebuild. Cross led the Trojans to back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances, and will aim to rekindle some hope in Atlanta.

17: Wake Forest

There might not be a single Power Four team in the country that experienced as much of a net loss as the Demon Deacons did this offseason. They lost superstar Juke Harris and additional supporting cast members, replacing them with backups and unimpressive scorers. It could be a long season in Winston-Salem, N.C. for a once-admirable program.

16: Boston College

The Eagles produced a potentially productive portal class. However, for a program that has constantly been a long-term tenant in the ACC’s lowest echelon, “I’ll believe it when I see it” needs to be the mindset with Boston College.The Eagles have much to prove.

D+/C- tier, might win an upset or two

15: Pitt

Broadly, Pitt lost the games it was expected to lose and won the games it was expected to win. However, losses to Quinnipiac and Boston College cause great concern. The Panthers had the second-worst offense in the ACC last season and the defense was poor at times as well. Pitt has talent, but one of the lowest ceilings in all of the Power Four.

14: Notre Dame

Coach Micah Shrewsberry has a top-tier pedigree as a basketball coach. However, Notre Dame is lacking a No. 2 or No. 3 scorer – and the Fighting Irish finished third-worst in the ACC last year. In particular, a 2-9 road mark is cause for concern. The floor and ceiling are low, but Notre Dame should steal a big win somewhere. It took No. 17 Virginia to double overtime last season.

13: California

The loss of Dai Dai Ames in the transfer portal diminishes Cal’s ceiling. What could have been a plucky bunch of upset-brewing Golden Bears is now an uninspiring cohort. Cal lost three of its best four players this offseason, and will need to find some scoring. The Golden Bears should be high-quality rebounders, but if they struggle to score, nothing else matters.

12: Stanford

The addition of Delaware guard Christian Bliss is interesting – the former Virginia recruit broke out with the Blue Hens and dominated as a redshirt freshman. Coach Kyle Smith has a promising bunch of returners too, but replacing Ebuka Okorie could be challenging.Stanford might be a solid team but probably nothing more.

C tier, will make some noise but need to rebuild

11: SMU

The loss of Boopie Miller to graduation is massive. SMU will have to embrace a new identity, one that revolves around increased distribution of the basketball. It is very possible that the Mustangs vault up this list, but at the moment, there are far too many questions on a team that squeezed into the First Four and lost in 2025-26.

10: Syracuse

Adrian Autry is out – he is now an assistant coach at Virginia. In his place, Syracuse hired Coach Gerry McNamara. He is a former Orange player with a modern philosophy that aligns with the modern game. McNamara is a cerebral coach with the ability to run positionless basketball. Syracuse could win some big games but is probably a year away from a return to the NCAA Tournament.

9: NC State

The Will Wade experiment was a total failure. Wade returned to LSU and now the Wolfpack are starting over with Coach Justin Gainey. NC State has the talent to be solid, but it has one of the lowest ceilings of the ACC’s middle tier. The Wolfpack could be on a beeline to a First Four exit, or perhaps miss the NCAA Tournament outright by just a few games.

B to B+ tier, NCAA Tournament team

8: Florida State

Coach Luke Loucks led a gigantic turnaround, leading the Seminoles to finish eighth in the ACC. This is a team that is significantly closer to a shocking NCAA Tournament run than some may think. Last year, Florida State lost to No. 1 Duke, No. 6 Duke, No. 10 Florida and No. 13 Virginia by a combined 10 points. Florida State also lost six more games by just 10 points or fewer.

7: Clemson

The Tigers, on paper, appear to be well-stocked with scorers. The addition of Notre Dame’s Cole Certa could be particularly impactful. However, Clemson is one of the ACC’s bigger unknowns. Injury concerns and lineup fits will need to be worked out. The Tigers could move a few spots up or down by November.

6: Virginia Tech

Last season was a strange one for the Hokies. The talent on the roster was far superior to their 11th place ACC finish. And even though Virginia Tech lost several high-end talents to the transfer portal (and one to the NBA), it should be an NCAA Tournament team this season. Amani Hansberry, Ben Hammond and some toolsy portal additions should make the Hokies a fun team to watch.

5: North Carolina

The Tar Heels at No. 5 is a strange situation – but then again, Chapel Hill, N.C. has seen some bizarre situations in football and men’s basketball as of late. Coach Michael Malone should be given some early respect, but North Carolina is going to have to prove that it can keep up with the clear top four teams in the ACC.

A- tier, ranked team

4: Miami

Coach Jai Lucas burst onto the scene in 2025-26, leading a formidable Hurricanes team to ACC contention. He has since added a five-star forward, Villanova’s star freshman point guard and a physical big man from Georgia. It would be a surprise if Miami was not ranked to start the season. The Hurricanes should win some big games.

A tier, top-15 team

3: Louisville

Crowned by many writers as one of the biggest offseason champions, Louisville hit the portal to reload its roster. The Cardinals landed Flory Bidunga, the top big man available. He was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year last season.

Louisville also added Oregon scorer Jackson Shelstad, plus other promising playmakers from the Big Ten and SEC. If everything clicks, the Cardinals have the potential to author a considerably deep NCAA Tournament run. The key word, for now, is “if.”

A+ tier, top-10 team

2: Virginia

In a few power rankings (Jon Rothstein, On3 and more) Virginia has been ranked as a top-10 team. It makes sense given that the Cavaliers retained all eligible returners from last season, and added some promising shooters and a European wing in the portal.

Coach Ryan Odom is well-positioned to once again reach the 30-win mark and seriously push Duke for an ACC championship. However, that might be more difficult than last year given the Blue Devils also return many key players and added some superstars this offseason.

Highest tier, a national championship favorite

1: Duke

The Blue Devils feature some rare continuity. They return Patrick Ngongba, Dame Sarr, Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer. Perhaps more importantly, though, Duke added Wisconsin star guard John Blackwell plus five-star forward Cameron Williams.

The Blue Devils should have one of the best lineups in the country – especially on defense – and be the clear favorite to win the ACC. Duke should also be regarded as one of the top three favorites to win the national title.

This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/virginia as ACC basketball July tier rankings and projections for 2026-27: Where is Virginia.

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