PFL commentator Dan Hardy thinks the historic betting line between Dakota Ditcheva and Denise Kielholtz at PFL New York is a disservice to both athletes.
Undefeated women’s flyweight standout Ditcheva (15-0) will walk into Friday’s co-main event matchup with Kielholtz (9-5) at UBS Arena on Long Island (ESPN) as a historic betting favorite. She can be found as high as -10,000 on various markets, which marks one of the widest lines ever in an MMA fight.
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Although Ditcheva, 28, is a rightful favorite in the mind of nearly everyone, Hardy said the mass unpredictability of MMA could level the playing field in a way the odds don’t reflect. He sees Kielholtz, 37, as having a sneaky game, and the fact Ditcheva is coming off a pair of significant injuries creates some intrigue.
“First of all, it’s an MMA fight. I was talking to Matt Serra last night and he’s one of the people that upset the odds (against Georges St-Pierre) back in the day before they had as much traction and attention,” Hardy told MMA Junkie. “I feel for Denise because she’s been put in that situation by a lot of people. Then when you see them face off, Dakota’s huge for the weight. But Denise, at close range, she’s got excellent judo, inside and outside leaps, side control, scarf hold position, taking the back. She could be a real test for Dakota because she’s very, very good in the clinch at close range.
“I’m sure she’s 100 percent feeling great, but there’s always that little bit of hesitation when you’re coming back from an injury, like, ‘How is this going to work out?’ Does it change Dakota’s game in some ways? Does she want to kick more or clinch more? I’m excited to see what Dakota looks like.”
Although he doesn’t agree with the betting line, Hardy also said it’s not unrealistic that Ditcheva could still put on a completely one-sided performance. He sees that ability in her, especially given the degree of focus he has witnessed throughout fight week.
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It’s certainly a bit of a trap fight situation for Ditcheva, though, because it brings a degree of pressure to deliver in such a dominant fashion that Hardy said it would loom on the mind of any fighter.
“I know Dakota’s taking Denise very seriously because it’s these kind of fights where you overlook the person, you trip and stumble and then all of a sudden the hype that is forcing those odds into such a ridiculous place, all comes crashing down around you,” Hardy said. “People get dismissed very quickly in this sport. One loss to a person that you shouldn’t have lost to and that’s it. Imagine if GSP had lost to me? It would’ve completely changed his career and everything. It would’ve been twice that happened after Matt Serra took the belt off him. You don’t want to be in those situations fighting someone that is such an underdog that you’re just expected to win.
“It’s a strange circumstance and I feel for both ladies. I don’t think it’s an easy situation for either of them. But I know for a fact Liz Carmouche is watching this one and she’s rooting for Dakota to win because that’s the fight she wants. As long as Dakota comes through with this one healthy and she’s successful, it seems like that it is going to be the flyweight title on the line for that. I can’t see any other way it would play out.”
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Dan Hardy: Dakota Ditcheva under pressure with historic PFL New York odds
