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The Atlanta Dream have won five straight matchups against the Phoenix Mercury, and they’ll look to extend that streak as they travel to Mortgage Matchup Center on Saturday, Aug. 22.
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Angel Reese has been unstoppable on the glass, and my Dream vs. Mercury predictions believe she’s getting a favorable matchup with Phoenix‘s generous interior defense tonight.
Read on for my free WNBA picks.
Dream vs Mercury prediction
Dream vs Mercury best bet: Angel Reese Over 12.5 rebounds -135
Angel Reese leads the W in rebounds at 11.9 per game, and she comfortably leads in rebounds on the road at a healthy 12.6.
Reese grabbed 10 boards in each of her two matchups with the Phoenix Mercury, but both games were at home. She’s corralled 13+ rebounds in 15 of 35 games and 12+ in 20, including 12 of 18 on the road.
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Phoenix has allowed the fifth-most rebounds to opponents, and Reese is riding a 10-game streak of double-digit boards while averaging 13.
I’ll play this one up to 13.5.
Covers
COVERS INTEL: Reese leads the W in Rebound Percentage (19), and she comfortably leads the league in Offensive Rebound Percentage (14.7). Over the last 10 games, the Mercury have surrendered the second-most rebounds and the seventh-most offensive rebounds.
Dream vs Mercury same-game parlay
The Atlanta Dream are 4-1 ATS across their last five matchups with Phoenix, and Atlanta has covered the spread in three straight road games overall, outscoring opponents by 28.7 ppg.
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Phoenix is just 6-10 ATS at home, and the team is 1-4 ATS across its last five overall.
Atlanta has allowed the fourth-fewest points, and Phoenix has scored the fifth-fewest points this season. The Dream rank fourth in Defensive Rating, and the Mercury rank 12th in Offensive Rating.
I’ll play the Under down to 173.5.
Dream vs Mercury SGP +420
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Angel Reese Over 12.5 rebounds
Zak Hanshew’s 2026 Transparency Record
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Best bet: 28-33, -7.47 units
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Player prop: 16-19, -5.23 units
Dream vs Mercury odds
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Spread: Dream -5.5 | Mercury +5.5
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Moneyline: Dream -218 | Mercury +180
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Over/Under: Over 176.5 | Under 176.5
Dream vs Mercury trend
Atlanta has covered the spread in three straight road games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Dream vs Mercury
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Location |
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
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Date |
Saturday, Aug. 22, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
10 p.m. ET |
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TV |
WANFA, WPCH.2 |
Dream vs Mercury latest injuries
Dream: Brionna Jones (Out).
Mercury: Kelsey Plum (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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