The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels have operated on fairly different trajectories over the last several years. Heading into the 2026-27 college basketball season, the two clubs are met with pretty different expectations.
Where Duke has had stability over the last few years, the Tar Heels have had anything but. This ultimately led to the dismissal of head coach Hubert Davis and the appointment of former NBA champion Michael Malone as the program’s next head coach.
Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) and UConn Huskies forward Jayden Ross (23) go for the ball in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
I am definitely intrigued by the hire of Malone, but UNC will still enter the season with lots of question marks. Let’s break down the differences in expectations between Duke and North Carolina entering the year.
Mar 26, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer speaks with the media during a press conference ahead of the east regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Expectations for Duke
Simply put, Duke will enter the year with one of the best rosters in the country, and it will be expected to firmly be in the mix to cut down the nets in April 2027.
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Head coach Jon Scheyer built a roster ready to win in the modern college basketball era. He and his staff brought back three starters from last season’s squad that earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and four of their top six scorers. Redshirt freshman Sebastian Wilkins is also back in Durham.
Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Braeden Carrington (0) and guard John Blackwell (25) react during the second half of a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Scheyer and Co. then brought in two big-time additions from the transfer portal in John Blackwell from Wisconsin and Drew Scharnowski from Belmont. Blackwell will be the Blue Devils’ go-to scoring option, and he has the potential to put together an All-American-level senior season.
Scharnowski will operate as a Swiss army knife defensively, able to guard several positions on the floor with active hands and strong rebounding ability. The 6’9″ big man is also a talented passing big and can run the break in transition.
West forward Cameron Williams (1) breaks down court during the McDonald’s All-American boys high school basketball game featuring all of the top seniors in the country at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, on March 31, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
On top of all that, Duke assembled one of the best high school recruiting classes in the country, highlighted by star big man Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje. 5-star prospects Cameron Williams, Deron Rippey Jr., and Bryson Howard are also part of the class, along with 4-star seven-footer Maxime Meyer.
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The Blue Devils will enter the year as one of the deepest teams in the country and among the most complete. Duke has length and positional size everywhere on the court, experience, shooting, continuity, and veteran leaders.
Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer yells down court Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
It’s fair to say anything less than a deep tournament run would be a failure for Duke heading into the year. Scheyer is looking to win the ACC regular-season and tournament titles for the third consecutive campaign.
Apr 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone reacts in the second half against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Expectations for North Carolina
UNC has fallen in the Round of 64 in each of the last two seasons and has not been living up to the blue-blood standards it is expected to, which led to the firing of Davis.
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Given how late he entered the fold, Malone did a pretty solid job in the portal. The Heels are bringing in Terrence Brown from Utah, Neoklis Avdalas from Virginia Tech, and Matt Able from NC State. How those backcourt pieces fit together is yet to be seen, but there is certainly some intriguing talent.
Feb 14, 2026; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Neoklis Avdalas (17) shoots shoots as Florida State Seminoles guard Xavier Osceola (11) defends during the second half at Cassell Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
UNC returned Jarin Stevenson in the frontcourt and is bringing in two high-upside international big men in Sayon Keita and Alexandros Samodurov. Keita is not yet with the program but is expected to arrive sometime in August.
The Heels then made a late addition, signing former South Dakota center Cameron Fens, making this UNC roster a very interesting one to follow. With any team built through transfers and newcomers, it is really hard to gauge how they will fit together before they are actually on the court. Still, UNC’s roster itself shows a ton of promise.
Mar 10, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (2) drives around Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Given the fact that UNC has not made it out of the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend in two years and has a head coach who hasn’t been in the college game since 2001, if it can land a 5-seed or better in the Big Dance, I’d call that a sure-fire success in Year 1 under Malone.
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Duke and UNC have been on different paths over the last few years, and the Tar Heels are looking to return to prominence on the national stage. North Carolina has the roster to compete at the top of the ACC, but how these new pieces fit will become clear over time.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/duke as Evaluating Duke Basketball’s Expectations Versus North Carolina.
