Fan post: Welcome to the DOPE Show

Hello Brew Hoopers. Today we have a fan post from Rick Berry. Rick sent us this really interesting article, and we wanted to spotlight it on the site because he clearly put a lot of effort into it. Fan posts are somewhat a thing of the past on BH due to logistical issues—The Feed is really the only spot to present any takes you may have—but due to this article’s size and the fact that it includes tables, it could really only be published in an “official post” (along with the fact that, as I alluded to, it’s a great read). And again, not to be a negative Nancy, but we do need to reiterate that—purely for logistical reasons—this can’t become a trend.

Take it away, Rick!

In response to Jack Trehearne’s post in The Feed that MarJon Beauchamp would be playing overseas, R984 wrote “Horst must have a record for high picks to out-of-the-nba pipeline… it’s like every player is bad, but I would be shocked if many other long-tenured GMs have so many guys who are so bad they’re out of the league in 6 years as top-35 type picks.” To quote Bucks insider Eric Nehm, “I found this question fascinating”: who are the biggest losers when it comes to first-round drafting? So fascinating that I literally got out of bed and fired up my computer. Humans are weird.

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Thankfully for us, Mitchell Maurer (who I thought was long retired) provided a comprehensive response detailing the Bucks’ recent first-round pick history, which I will rip off here.

• 2016 – Thon Maker (5 NBA seasons before going overseas)

• 2017 – DJ Wilson (5 NBA seasons before going overseas, then he came back for two games so technically he’s got six logged)

• 2020 – n/a (technically RJ Hampton, but he was traded)

• 2021 – n/a (no first round pick)

• 2022 – MarJon Beauchamp (4 NBA seasons, clearly an overseas guy now)

• 2023 – n/a (no first round pick)

• 2024 – AJ Johnson (obviously still young but he’s barely hanging on in the league… after getting drafted as an overseas player!)

• 2025 – n/a (no first round pick)

• 2026 – Brayden Burries is obviously a future All-Star so I think we’re good.

To assess which teams and GMs have been the worst first-round drafters, I created a population of players who have played ≤ 4 years in the league since their draft, spanning the draft years from 2014 to 2022. For lottery picks, I extended the years played to 6 years with the assumption that they may get a second deal based primarily on draft position (or perceived potential).

There are 66 total players meeting this criteria. The teams that appear most on this list have five players (BOS, LAC). Unfortunately, with something like draft pick ‘bustiness’ it’s hard to assess something like “which pick is worse.” To aid in this analysis, I’ve developed what I call the D.O.P.E. (Doesn’t Offer Pick Excellence) Index.

The index is constructed of a mathematically balanced, statistically significant, calorie-neutral scoring system consisting of the following:

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• Draft Placement: 10 pts (picks 1-5), 5 pts (6-13), 3 pts (14-20), 1 pt (20-30)

• Games Played: 5 pts (≤ 50 GP), 4 pts (51-100 GP), 2 pts (101-200), 1 pt (> 200 GP)

• Years in NBA before leaving: 5 pts (≤ 1 yr), 3 pts (2-3 yrs), 2 pts (4 yrs), 1 pt (> 4yrs)

• Narrative Adjustment: Zhaire Smith: -8 pts for sesame allergy, and James Wiseman: +3 for screwing up GSW’s “2 timelines”

After hours of computation, the DOPE Index shows that Jon Horst and the Bucks are at least 13th best at launching first-round picks into the sun. This is underestimating Horst since it doesn’t include AJ Johnson, who I consider his worst first-round pick, and projects to be a ~12 DOPE.

This result is a bit surprising. Phoenix’s draft record from 2014-2017 is powerfully bad, despite getting Devin Booker in 2015. Here’s a dog’s breakfast of early first-round misses:

• Tyler Ennis (2014; 18th overall)

• Dragan Bender (2016; 4th)

• Marquese Chriss (2016; 8th)

But what about Devin Booker? The DOPE Index is more a measure of a GM’s lowlight reel and isn’t sufficient to gauge overall draft prowess. Acknowledging the hits is a necessary part of this exercise. Enter SPLORT (Superior Picking by Luck OR Talent). SPLORT is another point-based index with 15 pts for a future HoFer/franchise cornerstone, 8 pts for an All-Star/award winner, 4 pts for a starter, and 2 pts for a rotational guy.

I pulled the SPLORT for each of the 13 teams listed above.

Unfortunately, this is where the Bucks distinguish themselves, getting SPLORT contributions from only Jabari and Donte in the Giannis era. Other notables from the SPLORT review include

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• Boston dominates with their picks of the Jays and Smart, but also gets a bunch of rotational pieces: Pritchard, Time Lord, Grant Williams, Nesmith, and Rozier.

To get a more complete picture of draft performance, I combined the DOPE Index with SPLORT to create the Effective DOPE Index (eDOPE). This is where a more familiar narrative appears.

Personally, I expected MIL to rank higher, but some of that is due to the time range (2014-2022) and excluding AJ Johnson. Additionally, GSW may be unfairly punished by the Narrative Adjustment I made for their Wiseman pick. While Wiseman did fold the “two Timelines,” that draft was rough on top-end talent. In hindsight, the best non-Ant picks were at 12 (Haliburton) and 21 (Maxey), though just having LaMelo would’ve probably produced a far better outcome than Wiseman.

In conclusion, R984 is likely correct that Jon Horst is the longest-tenured first-round draft disaster, with hopes that Brayden Burries will drag his moribund track record out of the bottom five. Some teams have been comparable, but they’ve also either let their GM go or succeeded in other ways. Outside of Horst, nobody has been this bad in the first round and lived to tell the tale.