There are no easy answers with this one.
Aaron Nola is perhaps the worst pitcher in baseball.
For a long time, Nola was a very good and, at times, great pitcher.
Only two players have ever started more games than Aaron Nola’s 302 games in a Phillies uniform: Steve Carlton (499) and Robin Roberts (472). His 1,963 strikeouts are 2nd-most in team history (Carlton, 3,031), and he is 7th all-time in innings pitched and WHIP.
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He has been a postseason hero and will certainly be inducted into the Phillies Wall of Fame one day.
All of which makes his performance over the last two years so sad and difficult to reconcile.
Sure, Nola has always been frustrating. But there were far more outstanding outings than lackluster ones, until 2025.
In an injury-plagued season, Nola made 17 starts and put up a ghastly 6.01 ERA, by far the worst of his career. The thinking was Nola’s ankle sprain and fractured rib a season ago made it impossible to truly judge his performance. Hopes were high after he dominated in the World Baseball Classic in March.
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But after Nola’s performance against Pittsburgh on Monday (4.1 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 Ks) pushed his already awful ERA up to 6.04, he matched last season’s start total with nearly an identical ERA.
If it wasn’t clear what kind of pitcher Nola had become last year, his 2026 season should leave little doubt.
Aaron Nola is broken. No one seems to know how to fix him.
He’s already given up 19 HRs this season, including another two after being handed a 5-0 lead in the 3rd inning. Nola’s stuff was dancing all over the place in the first three innings, generating 23 swings and misses, the 2nd-most in his career. That’s an insane statistic when you consider he only recorded 13 outs in the game. In the 4th inning, Nola appeared to tire and began leaving his knee-buckling curveball out over the plate, forcing him to turn to his very hittable fastball as he fell behind in counts.
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The Pirates know how to hit. And they bludgeoned him.
But again, none of this is new. Since the start of last year, Nola has been worse than Taijuan Walker was in his final two years with the Phillies.
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Walker (25 starts, 146.1 IP: 4.86 ERA, 5.49 FIP, 1.51 WHIP, 29 HRs
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Nola (34 starts, 179.1 IP: 6.02 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 37 HRs
Everyone can see Nola cannot get anyone out right now. But what can be done?
The mantra seems to be the Phillies will be forced to ride it out all season for two reasons: his contract, and the lack of options to replace him.
Both are valid arguments. But given the $300+ million payroll and World Series expectations, can the Phils afford to keep running Nola out there, even given those headwinds?
It’s clear adding another starting pitcher sooner rather than later in a trade is a must for Dave Dombrowski. Andrew Painter’s struggles further complicates the matter, and there is literally no one else in the minors who can be called upon. Some names to potentially watch as the trade deadline grows closer are the Royals’ Michael Wacha, Baltimore’s Trevor Rogers, the Mets’ Clay Holmes, the Reds’ Brady Singer, and the Royals’ Seth Lugo.
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The Phils are unlikely to go shopping for a top-of-the-rotation starter like Tarik Skubal, Robbie Ray or even Sandy Alcantara, given their lack of quality prospects and the need to also supplement the roster with additional relievers and possibly a right-handed hitting outfielder.
Nola still has four years and $98 million due him after this season. They certainly will not release him in the same way they did Walker, who they finally bid adieu while in the last year of his contract. The Phillies are already spending $50 million to pay Walker, Adolis Garcia and Nick Castellanos to not play for them.
Should they acquire a decent starting pitcher over the next few weeks, the only option seems to be trying Nola in the bullpen. Perhaps allowing him to give max effort for one or two innings per outing will allow his fastball to play up a bit, or allow him to exclusive feature his secondary pitches more.
But the mission for these Phillies is clear. They have to win the World Series this season. And while their best chance of doing so is for Nola to figure it out, enough of a track record has been established over the last two years to make that prospect seem desperately optimistic.
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Among 109 starting pitchers since the start of last season with at least 170 innings pitched, Nola’s 6.02 ERA is 2nd-worst. Only Anaheim’s Jack Kochanowicz is worse (6.58).
If this continues, the Phillies won’t have a choice. They’re going to have to take him out of the rotation, no matter what anyone else is telling you right now.
This team’s only mission is a World Series. You cannot be a contender and continue to run out a pitcher who has posted an ERA over 6.00 consistently for the better part of two seasons. It’s unfair to the rest of the roster.
There will come a moment when a very difficult decisions is going to be made.
Trying to pretend like it’s not does no one any good.
