HUSKERS FOOTBALL 2025-26 Part 2: We Conquer the One-Score Game Curse…But a Few Get Away

As the ’25-’26 review/preview marches on, I took first a refreshing shot of Sailor Jerry and then a look back at last year’s slate.

Yes, we know the overview. The Huskers started off 6-2 and Matt Rhule was given an extension with Penn State potentially sniffing around. The Huskers appeared to be in position to win their 7th in a Blackout night game in front of a wild Memorial Stadium crowd against Southern Cal. Then down went Dylan Raiola with a broken right fibula and the remainder of the season cratered as they finished 1-4. A second straight bowl game after a decade without wasn’t enough to curb fan grumbling after being on the receiving end of three blowouts to close things out in 2025.

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T.J. Lateef early on had quite a few fans wondering if he should be sharing some time with Raiola after dicing up the Akron and Houston Christian reserves. It even reached the point where OC Dana Holgorsen was asked in a press conference if Lateef should start seeing a drive or two per game going forward. (Holgorsen just stared back for a couple seconds, before answering something along the lines of, “Oh, I don’t know. I think our starter’s doing okay,” what with Raiola completing around 78% of his passes.)

It turned out Lateef was, barring against UCLA’s awful defense, basically ineffective (and the defense fared just as badly starting with Penn State running it down their throats) – and the staff likely saw it that way as well as they hit the portal for, not just one, but two quarterbacks. In addition, the Blackshirts would surrender 121 points in their final three games leading to staff changes on that side of the ball.

So this much we all know, but let’s crack the door a little more.

2025 Turned the One-Score Game Curse Around

Yes, yes, there were blowouts as well and we’ll get to that.

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But a 5-2 record in the one-score games was no small achievement and credit must be given there.

It all went to hell beginning with Scott Frost and Matt Rhule was no better in his first two years. From 2018-2024, the Nebraska record in these contests was 10-35. Frost’s record was 7-25 and then Rhule started off 3-10. The worst was the infamous “best 3-9 team ever” season in which the Huskers were 0-8 in one-score affairs. Things were so odd that season that they finished 1-8 in Big 10 play with a points for/against of 239-239.

They beat Northwestern 56-7 and lost their other 8 conference games by a combined 49 points. That’s insane, but it was just the cherry on top of seven years of this stuff.

(I don’t include the barnyard dung stink of the Mike Riley Era here. He was not successful in these games either with a 7-11 mark, but after a 2-6 2015, he actually finished 3-3 in his other two seasons, saving his ice cream and sprinkles efforts for blowouts like the 62-3 thrashing administered by Ohio State for which tickets could be had for $5 or less beforehand.)

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So let’s take a quick look at the games which flipped this narrative – for one season, at least. And before you say anything, yes, I’m aware I’m taking huge liberties with one game in which the math clearly states it wasn’t a one-score game:

Nebraska 20 Cincinnati 17 – 8/28 – Kansas City – While some fans didn’t give the Bearcats enough credit, the win looked great – for a while. Cincy had a trajectory similar to Nebraska as they won 7 straight following the loss to the Huskers, before losing their final 5 to finish, yep, 7-6. Nearing the end, many braced for another heartbreak until Malcolm Hartzog came down with the pick to end it.

Note: The Bearcat is an actual thing – the “binturong” of SE Asia. It is related to neither the bear or the cat. This is info which will score you useless cooler and bar talk points.

Michigan 30 Nebraska 27 – 9/20 – Lincoln – See below

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Nebraska 34 Maryland 31 – This would be a very typical Terps season as they would jump to a fast start (4-0) and stumble thereafter (0-8). So much like the Oregon “We’re back!” 2016 win when the Ducks finished 4-8, we caught Maryland at 4-1 coming off a win over Wisconsin and a 4-point loss to Washington. In this one, Raiola would lead the boys on an 81-yard drive throwing 4-5 for 73 yards and the game-winner to Dane Key with 1:08 to go.

* Nebraska 38 Michigan St 27 – 10/4 – Lincoln – And here’s where I’m ignoring actual math. No, the final wasn’t within 8 points, but it was until just under 7 minutes to go. This was the wind game with light Nebraska breezes of 25mph gusting to 40 and gently sailing up from the south. The spark to victory was 75-yard drive into the wind after Sparty took a 21-14 lead. A Raiola-Barney 45-yard completion was the big play and a 23-yard Emmett Johnson run was the score. Watching Nebraska come back in a tight one like this was so wonderfully against the grain.

Nebraska 28 Northwestern 21 – 10/25 – Lincoln – The Huskers slogged about in perhaps a Minnesota hangover fog in the first half before Kenneth Williams started the 2nd half with a memorable 95-yard kickoff return for six. The reignited Huskers scored the winner with 2:44 left when Emmett ran it in from 4 yards out.

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Southern Cal 21 Nebraska 17 – 11/1 – Lincoln – See below

Nebraska 28 UCLA 21 – 11/8 – Pasadena – The Huskers offense cooked behind Emmett Johnson – until 11:44 to go in the 3rd quarter at which point their scoring concluded with his 40-yard TD reception from Lateef. It didn’t look good when the Bruins brought it within a TD with 4:47 remaining. But behind two key completions by Lateef and then a final 1st down after 9 and 1 yard runs by Emmett for the last of his 232 total yards, the Huskers had run out the clock to hang on for the last victory of the season.

Three Games That Got Away

Two of these were above and they’re pretty obvious – for two different reasons, it felt like could’ve had either or both in the win column. The third one will probably sound pretty odd on its face, but I’ll try to sell it. Let’s jump right in:

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Michigan 30 Nebraska 27 – Michigan exposed Nebraska’s big three weaknesses – too many sacks and the inability to stop the run or pressure opposing QB’s – and the Huskers still remained right in it to the end. On the minus, they surrendered 286 yards rushing with three long breakaway TD’s, and 5 sacks while managing only one of their own. However, when he had time, Raiola was 30-41 for 308 yards and 3 TD’s. The total yardage was 391-351 Michigan as the secondary clamped Bryce Underwood. But the most important drive was probably the Wolverines’ 4th quarter 16-play 77-yard effort (55 on the ground) which ate 8:46 of clock time and didn’t quite leave the Huskers enough time to come back in the 30-27 loss.

Minnesota 24 Nebraska 6 – It was painful watch, but as much as he second half sent Husker fans out of US Bank stadium in search of high bridges or cheap alcohol and a liberal view of closing time, this game was only 7-6 at halftime. The Huskers had executed two long drives to the Gophers one. However, they came away with two field goals, while the Goof’s had gone 90 yards for six. And at 7-6, it still felt like the Huskers had more offensive pop, even if it was a game more to Minnesota’s script.

Instead, the Gophers had figured that Raiola had no sense for escaping the rush by finding seams upfield and sent the house for a school record 9 sacks – which were far from all being on the offensive line. The final was 24-6, but a winnable game suddenly felt so much worse than the score.

Southern Cal 21 Nebraska 17 – There was no secret narrative here. The Huskers were in control with a 14-6 lead and the ball after an Andrew Marshall pick. They were giving up some chunk runs but were also holding Jayden Maiava, averaging over 300 yds/gm, to his worst outing of the season, 9-23 for 135 yards and a pick.

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Then Raiola went down.

About Those Blowouts

Penn State 37 Nebraska 10
Iowa 40 Nebraska 16
Utah 44 Nebraska 22

Welcome to the elephant in the room.

This is the part which has Husker fans simmering the most and had not been part of Rhule’s negatives before the end of 2025. The only time they had hit the field and gotten their doors blown off previously was the 56-7 loss to Indiana in 2024. And people were pretty quick to forgive when they sacked up and nearly upset Ohio State in Columbus a week later. It was a B1G referee performance which was so laughable, one didn’t know whether palms were being greased or orders came from down high, only that utter incompetence in one direction wasn’t sellable.

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Sorry. Haven’t gotten that off my chest in a bit.

But, in any case, fans were impressed by Huskers getting up off the mat to scare the country’s #1 team. The end of 2025, on the other hand, was just one thrashing after another. And one of them being to the sludge from Iowa City was beyond galling.

The 5-2 record in one-score games is all fine and good, but in the other six, they only fared 2-4 with all four losses being by 18 points or more. This will quickly get unacceptable with fans if it continues into 2026, and frustration will reach a boiling point quickly especially with the contract extension. If the worst comes to pass, it will either deemed too much to buy out or a become an albatross of a buyout which could greatly hinder the ability to compete financially for a few years.

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Now that’s the worse case scenario and, if you listen to Rhule, he is well aware of the stakes. He seems more subdued than in his first three years, but quitely intense, not cowed. Recruiting has been gangbusters both short and long-term and weaknesses have been addressed both through the transfer portal and the coaching staff.

However, they will be huge underdogs in games vs. three of the Top 5 teams in national preseason rankings. Early spreads have them as 20+ point dogs against Oregon and Ohio State and +13-14 against Indiana. (Still apparently receiving zero respect even after winning a national title)

Can they keep any of those games close or even find a way to win a single program-trajectory-altering game in that gauntlet?