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The New York Liberty make their first appearance at Moda Center when they take on the expansion Portland Fire.
Portland’s defense leaks like a sieve, and my Liberty vs. Fire predictions expect New York to win by a comfortable margin tonight.
Read on for my WNBA picks for Tuesday, May 11.
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Liberty vs Fire prediction
Liberty vs Fire best bet: Liberty -11.5 (-115)
The New York Liberty have been a wrecking ball to open 2026, posting a +19.4 overall NET rating while holding opponents to just 84 points per game.
That defense faces a Portland Fire offense that managed a 101.2 OFFENSIVE NET in its only outing and surrenders 48 points in the paint.
New York generates 21.5 points off turnovers per game, second in the league, and Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and the thinned-out Liberty still produced that damage without five rotation players.
New York’s depth has been irrelevant so far. Portland’s defense will be too.
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COVERS INTEL:
The Liberty have a team effective field goal percentage of 63% through two games.
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Liberty vs Fire same-game parlay
The injuries to Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally have forced Breanna Stewart to be more aggressive on offense.
Stewart is a versatile scorer, and torched Connecticut for 31 points in just 28 minutes. Portland’s defense grades out as the second- worst in the WNBA, and she’ll eat tonight.
Bridget Carleton has steadily increased her 3-point volume throughout her career and connects at 39% from downtown. A shooter getting at least seven-plus attempts from long-range will find two.
Liberty vs Fire SGP
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Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 points
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Bridget Carleton Over 1.5 threes
Liberty vs Fire first basket scorer: Breanna Stewart (+325)
Jones projects to win the opening tip, and the Liberty will look to push in transition with Stewart as the first option.
The two-time former WNBA MVP scored the first basket of the 2026 season against the Sun, is averaging 27 points through two games, and is a good pick for this wager.
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Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
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Best bet: 2-0, +1.96 units
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First basket: 1-1, +2.50 units
Liberty vs Fire odds
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Spread: Liberty -12.5 | Fire +12.5
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Moneyline: Liberty -800 | Fire +550
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Over/Under: Over 173.5 | Under 173.5
Liberty vs Fire trend
The Under is 3-7-0 in the last 10 NY Liberty contests. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Fire
|
Location |
Moda Center, Portland, OR |
|
Date |
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 |
|
Tip-off |
10:00 p.m. ET |
|
TV |
WWOR, KPDX |
Liberty vs Fire latest injuries
Liberty: Satou Sabally (Out), Rebecca Allen (Out), Raquel Carrera (Out), Leonie Fiebich (Out), Sabrina Ionescu (Out).
Fire: Kamiah Smalls (GTD). Karlie Samuelson (Out), Sug Sutton (GTD).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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