All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Friday’s top batter prop bets
Corbin Carroll | OVER 0.5 HR (+680)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.22 EV
Jordan Walker | OVER 0.5 HR (+531)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.47 EV
Brandon Lowe | OVER 0.5 RBI (+189)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.25 EV
Pete Crow-Armstrong | UNDER 0.5 H (+179)
Projection: 41% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.53 EV
Dominic Smith | OVER 0.5 HR (+980)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.94 EV
Nathan Lukes | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.13 EV
Friday’s top pitcher prop bets
Jose Soriano | UNDER 2.5 ER (-161)
Projection: 77% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.52 EV
Logan Gilbert | OVER 7.5 K (-111)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.23 EV
Logan Gilbert | UNDER 1.5 ER (+105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.61 EV
Zack Littell | UNDER 3.5 K (-154)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.52 EV
Aaron Civale | OVER 3.5 K (-158)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.68 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Los Angeles Angels 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER
The Angels have gone over this bet in 11 straight games. (+11.65 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ +105
San Diego Padres Team Total OVER
The Padres have gone over this bet in eight straight games. (+8.10 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -125
Minnesota Twins Team Total OVER
The Twins have gone over this bet in six straight games. (+6.15 Units / 83% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ +110
Detroit Tigers Moneyline
The Tigers have won six straight games. (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI). Current odds: +109
Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total OVER
The Diamondbacks have gone over this bet in nine of their last 10 games. (+8.15 Units / 70% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -110
Atlanta Braves Game Total OVER
Eight of the Braves’ last 10 games have gone over the total. (+6.90 Units / 61% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -102
