Notre Dame football game-by-game picks, CFP prediction for 2026 season

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One of the biggest stories of last college football season was the decision to leave Notre Dame football out of the College Football Playoff. After starting 0-2, the Irish ran the table with 10 straight wins, but still were the first team out of the field when Selection Sunday came around.

Still, the narrative around Notre Dame last season was that it was clearly one of the best teams in the country by the end of the season, but its lack of quality wins didn’t allow it to get into the field over a team like Miami (FL) or Alabama.

This year, another season without a CFP berth won’t be acceptable for Marcus Freeman and company. Despite losing both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the NFL after last season, quarterback CJ Carr is back for 2026 and should give this Irish squad a very high floor. The defense also has a chance to be one of the best in the country, led by star cornerback Leonard Moore.

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Notre Dame has a tricky schedule this season, even if it isn’t completely frontloaded like it was a year ago. Let’s go through each matchup for Marcus Freeman and company and predict how the Irish will fare in 2026.

Week 1 vs. Wisconsin (Sunday, Sept. 6, Lambeau Field): Win

After opening the season against Miami last year, Notre Dame gets an easier start in 2026 with a neutral site game against Wisconsin. The Badgers have been struggling mightily over the last few years and are now in a full rebuild as a program. Even if Wisconsin is improved in 2026, it will be no match for Notre Dame from a talent perspective on either side of the ball.

Record: 1-0

Week 2 vs. Rice (Saturday, Sept. 12): Win

Week 2 is another softball for the Irish, as Rice just can’t match up with Notre Dame in any way, shape or form. This will be a good spot for Freeman and company to clean up any lingering concerns from Week 1 before they get into the meat of their schedule.

Record: 2-0

Week 3 vs. Michigan State (Saturday, Sept. 19): Win

Michigan State seems to finally be back on the right path after hiring Pat Fitzgerald to be its next head coach, but this is a tall task for any program in the first season of a new era. Even if you’re high on what Fitzgerald can do with the Spartans in the coming years, this should be another comfortable win for a team as talented as Notre Dame.

Record: 3-0

Week 4 at Purdue (Saturday, Sept. 26): Win

Purdue will be expected to improve in year two under Barry Odom, but it’s going to be a long rebuild in West Lafayette. The Boilers are going from the worst program in the Big Ten and trying to work their way up from there, and they’re still a long ways from the kind of program that can compete with a college football powerhouse like the Irish.

Record: 4-0

Week 5 at North Carolina (Saturday, Oct. 3): Win

All eyes will be on Bill Belichick’s second season in Chapel Hill after the first one went south quickly. All of the drama with Belichick and Jordon Hudson aside, this just wasn’t a very talented Tar Heels team last year and it doesn’t look like one again this season. Notre Dame continues to roll again with another win over an inferior roster.

Record: 5-0

Week 6 vs. Stanford (Saturday, Oct. 10): Win

The last of a number of pretty straightforward games to start Notre Dame’s season comes against Stanford. The Cardinal also has to make the long trip to South Bend this fall after Notre Dame dominated in Palo Alto a year ago. Notre Dame gets to 6-0 here, and it would be a pretty big surprise if it had any trouble doing so along the way.

Record: 6-0

Week 7 at BYU (Saturday, Oct. 17): Loss

This is a tricky spot for Notre Dame. The Irish will be playing for the seventh week in a row, making a bit of wear and tear a real factor here. BYU is also a major step up in competition compared to Notre Dame’s first six opponents, and that could be a bit of an adjustment. On top of that, BYU is a very tough place to play and that will help the Cougars hand the Irish their first loss of the season.

Record: 6-1

Week 8 BYE

Week 9 vs. Navy (Saturday, Oct. 31, Foxborough): Win

Navy has had a number of very good teams in recent years, but none of them have been any match for Notre Dame in the annual matchup between the two teams. The discrepancy in size and talent on the line of scrimmage doesn’t bode well for the Midshipmen and their triple option offense, and that will be the case once again in this game as the Irish get back in the win column.

Record: 7-1

Week 10 vs. Miami (FL) (Saturday, Nov. 7): Win

This is the one that everyone will have circled on their calendar, and given that the Fighting Irish already have a loss on their schedule to BYU in this scenario, it may just be a must-win for Freeman and company. This game is at home, and the Irish will be in a bit of a groove by this point, so the Golden Domers get the nod here and get a big win to boost their CFP resume.

Record: 8-1

Week 11 vs. Boston College (Saturday, Nov. 14): Win

This could be a bit of a trap game coming off of what will undoubtedly be an emotionally charged game against Miami, so keep an eye out for a bit of a slow start here from the Irish. However, it’s a home game against a Boston College roster that has no business competing with Notre Dame. Freeman’s squad gets over the line in an ugly one.

Record: 9-1

Week 12 vs. SMU (Saturday, Nov. 21): Win

A lot is being made of the Miami game and the trip to BYU, but this is the game on Notre Dame’s schedule that nobody is talking about. Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs will have College Football Playoff aspirations of their own this season, and they could very well be battling for an at-large spot with Notre Dame when this game rolls around. Kevin Jennings is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the country to defend, so the Irish will have their work cut out for them. The home crowd is just enough to get a win here.

Record: 10-1

Week 13 at Syracuse (Saturday, Nov. 28): Win

Notre Dame closes its regular season slate with a game on the road against Syracuse. Miami fans will warn them about the perils of traveling to upstate New York on the weekend after Thanksgiving, but this Syracuse team is far from the one that was in the top 25 a few seasons ago. The Irish roll here and get back into the College Football Playoff.

Record: 11-1

Postseason prediction: CFP semifinals

An 11-1 finish in the regular season should be more than enough to get Notre Dame into the CFP, and there’s a chance that 10-2 will even do the trick this time. A one-loss mark with the win over Miami will have the Irish vying for a top-four seed and a bye in the first round, but in this scenario they just miss out on that.

Still, 11-1 should have Notre Dame slotted in as the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, which should give the Irish a winnable first round game against a team that they are favored against. The second round will be much tougher, but the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds are usually wither champions from the ACC or Big 12 (a Miami rematch maybe?) or a runner-up from the Big Ten or the SEC. Notre Dame, on paper, should be on par with that kind of opponent.

A title seems like a bridge too far, as there are teams like Ohio State and Texas that the Irish would have a tough time with. A semifinal berth feels right for Marcus Freeman and company in 2026.

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