Texas Tech Football Preview 2026: Do the Red Raiders Have Staying Power?

Okay, Texas Tech, now what are you going to do?

Going 12-2 and winning the Big 12 Championship was nice and all, but it wasn’t enough.

Arizona State won the Big 12 Championship in 2024, and it got knocked out in the first round, too.

TCU went 13-2 with a spot in the national championship in 2022, and that was when Texas and Oklahoma were still in the Big 12.

What will Texas Tech do to go from being the program that finally won something, to the program that can win everything?

Can Texas Tech Prove Last Season Was Just the Beginning?

– 2026 Texas Tech Schedule Analysis

Remember, this is a program that won absolutely nothing until last season.

The previous outright conference championship was in 1955 in the Border Conference.

There were a few co-championships since then in the old Southwest Conference, but whatever.

Texas Tech had never won 12 games before last year, had only hit the ten-win mark once since 1976, and then, suddenly, it became a national power program.

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Texas Tech did exactly what you’re supposed to do in the modern age of college sports – at least if you have boosters with the means.

If you’re a program that hasn’t known any real success, go get the players who’ll change that through the transfer portal.

Texas Tech brought in the talent, found the right coach in Joey McGuire, and it all worked in a breakthrough season.

However, in the 23-0 College Football Playoff loss to Oregon, Texas Tech looked like a program that bought its way into high society, but complained because the salad fork was chilled.

It didn’t seem quite ready for primetime. (The handling of the Brendan Sorsby fiasco didn’t exactly help.)

But last year was a first step – remember, Indiana got bounced out of the playoff in the first round two years ago. This season has to be when the Red Raiders show that there’s real staying power.

This is when Texas Tech has to prove that it belongs in the country club.

Texas Tech Quick Hits

• Head Coach: Joey McGuire (5th year: 35-18)

• Best Case / Worst Case: Win the Big 12 and get back to the College Football Playoff/Lose three or more games and be out of the mix early

• Key Player: Will Hammond, QB, Soph.

• Biggest Question: Can Texas Tech quickly replace all the stars who made last year so special?

Texas Tech Key 2025 Stats

• First Quarter Scoring: Texas Tech 318, Opponents 62

• Penalties: Texas Tech 94 for 779 yards, Opponents 66 for 512 yards

• Total Offense: Texas Tech 6,459 yards, Opponents 3,616 yards

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Offense

Up until the loss to Oregon, the offense did everything right. 

It averaged 39 points and 461 yards per game. The running game was good, the passing attack efficient, the offensive line solid, and there’s more than enough talent back to do it all again.

What’s Working

It all starts with an offensive line that did just about everything right. Three starters are back, starting with tackle Howard Sampson, and Jordan Church an elite transfer from Louisville taking over one of the guard spots.

The pass protection could be better, but it did a good job of limiting tackles for loss, and it worked well for the running game that gets back …

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Cameron Dickey and the top backs return. The tough 5-10, 215-pound Dickey pounded away for 1,124 yards and a team-high 14 touchdowns.

Dickey can catch, too, and so can the slippery-smooth J’Koby Williams, who ran for 868 yards and six touchdowns, and caught 35 passes.

Top receivers Reginald Virgil and Terrance Carter are gone, but 48-catch Coy Eakin is back in the slot, and here come the great transfers.

Kenny Johnson is a deep threat from Pitt to take over an inside job, Donte Lee (Liberty) and Malcolm Simmons (Auburn) both averaged over 18 yards per catch, and Jalen Jones averaged over 23 yards per grab at Alcorn State.

What Needs Work

The quarterback situation. Behren Morton was fine. He was efficient, effective, and good enough to get drafted late by the New England Patriots. But he wasn’t an elite talent.

Okay … Brendan Sorsby.

He was the superstar transfer grab who was supposed to take the Red Raiders that one extra step. Not to rehash it all, but to set the dial to understatement, it didn’t work out.

Will Hammond was thrown into the mix last year when Morton got hurt, and now with Sorsby out of the mix, the pressure is on to be more than a conductor of the attack.

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The pass protection has to be a bit stronger. That goes extra with Hammond under center and needing as much time as possible.

The line wasn’t too bad, but it got the quarterback popped a bit too often. The Red Raiders were 12th in a 16-team Big 12 in sacks allowed, giving up 1.93 per game.

The running game has to always work. Arizona State dared Hammond to throw in the 26-22 Sun Devil win, and the Red Raider ground attack didn’t pick up the slack – it only ran 27 times in the loss.

The running game didn’t go anywhere against Oregon, getting stuffed for 2.6 yards per carry and just 78 yards.

Player to Watch

Cameron Dickey, RB Jr.
He hardly has to do it all along with J’Koby Williams helping out, but Dickey will be the main man when it comes to grinding away.

Now he has to be more consistent, but that comes with the carries. 384 of his yards came in two games – Kansas and BYU – and he only got the ball 11 times in the loss to Oregon and nine times against Arizona State.

Defense

The defense was the star of the show under defensive coordinator Shiel Wood.

It’s Texas Tech, so everyone wants to focus on the offensive side, but it was the defense that finished No. 1 in the nation against the run, No. 3 in total and scoring defense, and overall, did everything right.

There are some mega-losses, but once again, there’s a ton of talent coming in.

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What’s Working

The defense was close to perfect. Last year’s D set a tone and expectation for the program going forward. Now the Red Raiders know what’s possible.

The run defense was amazing. It might not be quite as good – it gave up just 68 yards per game, and No. 2 was Indiana, which allowed 77. 

The Red Raiders gave up a puny 2.2 yards per carry. Oklahoma gave up 2.39, and the No. 3 team, Toledo, allowed almost half a yard per carry more.

The Red Raiders reloaded on the defensive front. Trey White (San Diego State) was a Mountain West terror over the last few years. 

Adam Trick (Northern Illinois) grew into a terror of a pass rusher, Bryce Butler (Washington) is a 325-pound anchor on the nose, and Mateen Ibirogba is a 6-4, 300-pound run clogger on the inside.

The back seven is full of experience. The front line might be new, but everyone else is running it back from last season.

The linebacking combination of Ben Roberts and John Curry is among the best in the Big 12, corner Brice Pollock led the team with five picks and eight broken up passes, and safety Brenden Jordan will be among the team’s leading tacklers.

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What Needs Work

The lost pieces. Yeah, Texas Tech reloaded with talent, but replacing the heart-and-soul types won’t be easy.

David Bailey – 14.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss – was the No. 2 overall pick for a reason.

There’s no replacing Jacob Rodriguez – all the best linebacker in America did was everything, with 128 tackles, four picks, 11 tackles for loss, and seven forced fumbles.

And to hammer this a little bit more …

The transfer portal for the defensive line. There’s doing a good job in the portal, and there’s crushing it super-hard like the Red Raiders did last year.

How’s this for talent evaluation – and let’s just start with the line. David Bailey (again, the No. 2 overall pick, New York Jets), Romello Height (Third Round, San Francisco 49ers), Lee Hunter (Second Round, Carolina Panthers), and Skyler Howard (Sixth Round, Detroit Lions).

It’s asking the world to hit a 500-foot home run like that again.

Keep taking the ball away. The defense kept the pressure on and managed to turn games into routs with takeaways. It forced two or more takeaways ten times.

It came up with just one in the loss to Oregon, and for the one time last season, there weren’t any turnovers forced against Arizona State.

By the way, the 2024 Red Raiders went 0-2 when they didn’t force a takeaway, and were 2-4 when failing to come up with more than one.

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Player to Watch

Trey White, EDGE Sr.
Under the national radar because he usually played when half the nation was sleeping, the San Diego State transfer was one of the best pass rushers in college football over the last two seasons with 19.5 sacks and 29 tackles for loss.

No, he’s not another David Bailey – no one is – but he’s dangerous enough to be one of the Big 12’s newest stars.

Keys to the Season

• QB Will Hammond has to be better than solid.

• The defensive front has to come close to matching last year’s pass rushing production.

• The loaded offensive line has to take over games.

Player Who Needs To Shine

Will Hammond, QB Soph.
Don’t assume he can’t do the job just because he’s not Brendan Sorsby.

Hammond was a strong recruit who had his choice of several big-name programs, and last year he was good enough to work his way up to the No. 2 role.

Thrown into the fire when Behren Morton got hurt, he kept the ship afloat, even in the loss to Arizona State.

He might not be as polished as Morton was, but he can add a new element with his running ability.

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Biggest Concern

The expectations are through the roof.
Texas Tech is the one everyone is chasing now. It’s the evil empire for the rest of the Big 12, and don’t think for a moment that the program doesn’t love the role.

But there really are massive personnel losses, and the standard that last year’s team set week after week will be tough to match.

Last year’s team didn’t face a ton of adversity other than Morton being out for the Arizona State game. This team will have to prove it can win under what will likely be far more pressure.

Biggest Game

Houston, September 19
Who on the Big 12 schedule can beat the Red Raiders?

There’s no BYU or Utah to face, so, realistically, it’s a three-game season – Arizona, Arizona State, and Houston.

The date with Houston comes first, and the pressure will be on if they biff this.

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Transfer Portal

This suddenly got more interesting with the loss of Sorsby, but this is still an amazing class of transfers without the star quarterback signing able to play.

Texas Tech is living in the high-rent district when it comes to transfers.

Welcome to the new world of college football – don’t hate the player or the program, hate the game. No one else in the Big 12 came close to the talent grab the Red Raiders pulled off.

Best Signing

Austin Romaine, LB (Kansas State)
As long as you’re not expecting Jacob Rodriguez, Part 2 on the weakside of the linebacking corps, everything will be fine.

He won’t make as many big plays as Rodriguez did, but he’ll tackle everything – he made 162 stops over the last two seasons at Kansas State.

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Biggest Loss

Brendan Sorsby, QB
If he wasn’t the top quarterback transfer on everyone’s board this offseason, he was No. 2.

The idea was for the Cincinnati star to come in and be the difference-maker at the position who could take the offense up a few notches, especially come playoff time.

And now that’s not happening.

Other Names to Know

• Trey White, EDGE (San Diego State)

• Malcolm Simmons, WR (Auburn)

• Mateen Ibirogba, DT (Wake Forest)

CFN Season Prediction

It was my cheeky line throughout the whole Sorsby kerfuffle – Texas Tech will be 11-1 with Sorsby, and it’ll be 11-1 without Sorsby.

It’s another loaded Red Raider bunch that will be deep in the hunt for the Big 12 Championship again, with the College Football Playoff the only acceptable goal.

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However, this year’s team doesn’t appear to be quite as good as last year’s version. Fortunately, the schedule will allow everything time to get up to speed.

CFN Prediction: 11-1

Once again, Texas Tech isn’t pushing the non-conference envelope – Abilene Christian, at Oregon State, Sam Houston – but that’s not the real plus of the schedule.

The four projected toughest games on the schedule – Arizona, Arizona State, Houston, and TCU – all have to come to Galaxy.

Who do the Red Raiders miss? BYU, Kansas State, and Utah – three of the likely top challengers to Texas Tech’s crown.

It’s all there. Everything is in place to get back to the show, and this time, Texas Tech has to show it belongs.

Related: Texas Tech Football 2026 Schedule: Full Breakdown and Season Outlook