The Sun Belt is better now than it was when Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin, and Blake Anderson were winning conference titles, but Butch Jones has his Red Wolves in the mix every year.
It took a few years, but Jones has a consistent winner now with three straight bowl appearances, 21 wins over the span, and with a team returning that should be good enough to challenge for a championship.
Can the Red Wolves Do Enough to Be Sun Belt Title Good?
© Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images
(© Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images)
Arkansas State Quick Hits
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Head Coach: Butch Jones (6th year, 26-37; 14th year overall, 110-91)
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Best Case / Worst Case: Win the Sun Belt title/Just miss out on a bowl game
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Key Player: Trey Owens, QB Soph. (or whoever wins the quarterback job)
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Biggest Question: Can the defense do more despite the loss of all the top pass rushers?
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Arkansas State Key 2025 Stats
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2nd Quarter Points: 101, 3rd Quarter Points: 44
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Penalties: Opponents 116 for 999 yards, Arkansas State 82 for 752 yards
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Tackles For Loss: Arkansas State 81 for 345 yards, Opponents 81 for 309 yards
Offense
The offense kicked it in late in the season, but it needs to be more consistent and explosive.
It’s a loaded team full of good veterans, but the missing pieces are big.
Overall, there needs to be more efficiency, better play from the line, and consistency, but the players are in place to be terrific for new offensive coordinator, Garrett Altman.
What’s Working
The offensive line returns just about everyone. It needs to be far better – the pass protection needs to show up – and the ground attack has to be much stronger, but four starters are back, there’s decent depth, and there are plenty of strong reinforcements coming in from the transfer portal.
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Top target and star Corey Rucker is gone, but just about every other important receiver returns, starting with 73-grab veteran Chauncy Cobb and No. 3 man Hunter Summers. Landing Boski Barrett from Vanderbilt helps an already strong situation.
There needs to be a lot more happening from the ground game, and it starts with giving the 1-2 punch of Kenyon Clay (the thump) and Devin Spencer (the quickness) even more work.
There’s even more help coming from Corey Reddick Jr., a quick back from Valdosta State who ran for 651 yards and seven scores last year.
What Needs Work
The quarterback situation. Jaylen Raynor threw and completed more passes for more yards than anyone in the Sun Belt last year, and now he’s at Iowa State. Now it’s a fight for the gig – the Red Wolves don’t have it figured out yet.
Ethan Crawford is back after seeing minimal action last year. Drew Dickey (Vanderbilt) is a smallish baller, and 6-5 Trey Owens (Texas) and 6-4 Jeremy St-Hilaire (Vanderbilt) are bigger options.
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Consistent scoring. The Red Wolves failed to score 17 points four times, and went 1-5 when they failed to push past 21.
As a program, it didn’t get more than 21 in 18 games over the last three years, and it wasn’t just against the top teams on the slate.
The ground game has to be stronger. The line has to generate a push – the Red Wolves only averaged more than five yards per carry once, and that game against Georgia Southern was the only time it got more than 160 yards.
Player to Watch
Devin Spencer, RB Jr.
Can the 5-10, 175-pound speedster get the ball more? He’s not a workhorse, and he’ll split time again, but he averaged over five yards per carry and needs to have the ball in his hands at least ten times a game.
– Sun Belt Football Win Total Predictions
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Defense
There’s plenty of work to do.
The offense gets a lot of parts back, but the defensive side doesn’t. There’s a redo happening, with the portal playing a huge role for a defense that allowed well over 400 yards per game.
It wasn’t great against the run, and it had a few meltdowns against the better passing teams. As long as it can keep teams to around 24 points, it should be okay.
What’s Working
The safeties are among the best in the Sun Belt. The main men are back, starting with the combination of AG McGhee and Brandon Barnes, who combined for 151 tackles and seven broken up passes last year. Brandon Greil is also back after making 54 stops. If that wasn’t enough …
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The coaching staff brought in lots and lots of defensive backs. The safety situation is great, and it’s even better with Makai Shahid (Youngstown State) and Jaylen Heyward (UCF) adding depth.
The corners are the stronger of the defensive back transfers, with Noah Flores (Utah State) Bryson Ross (Portland State), and Five Hamilton (Kennesaw State) ready to go right away.
Good things happen when the run defense holds up. It’ll take a village of transfers to transform the line – eight linemen are entering the fun – and if they can be nasty against the run, everything changes on the defense.
The Red Wolves were 5-0 when allowing 160 yards or fewer, and 6-1 when giving up fewer than 185 yards. Basically, just don’t get gouged.
What Needs Work
Where are the pass rushers? This was one of the best pass rushing teams in America, but the 16.5 sacks from Demarcus Hendricks and Eathan Hassler are done. Cody Sigler left for Auburn, and Drew Collins is off to South Carolina.
The portal needs to bring the production, but the new guys don’t have any appreciable proven track record.
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The linebacking corps needs the transfers, too. Top tackler Aaron Alexander left for North Texas, and after being banged up last year, Javante Mackey is gone to Texas State.
Joshua Ofor (NC State) and Tre Stevens (Lafayette) join veteran Nigel Nelson – 54 tackles last year – to try piecing things together.
The pass defense got torched. There’s a reason why so many new players are coming in through the portal.
Even with a fantastic pass rush, the Red Wolves got hit for 245 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks combined to complete 68% of their throws.
Player to Watch
AG McGhee, S Sr.
He’s only around 190 pounds, but he works in a hybrid position in the ASU defense – part safety, part linebacker.
No matter where he plays, he makes things happen, with 100 tackles in his last two seasons at Marshall before coming up with 83 stops with a pick and five broken up passes last year.
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Keys to the Season
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Find the pass rushers who can step up right away.
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Settle the quarterback situation as quickly as possible.
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Get more pop to the offense with both the downfield passing game and rushing attack.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Donquarius Parker, EDGE, Sr.
The transfers for the pass rush are mostly FBS players who haven’t done much yet.
The 6-1, 240-pound Parker is one of the few players with plenty of experience, making 39 tackles with 5.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss last year for North Carolina Central. He’ll get every shot to be the main man on the outside.
Biggest Concern
The defensive line
The offensive side issues – quarterback, consistency, pass protection – should be helped by experience. The defensive line has to be even stronger against the run and find the same pressure, but with wholesale changes needed up front.
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Biggest Game
Troy, November 28
This is hardly a perfect Arkansas State team coming into the season, but it has the talent and upside to win the Sun Belt West – by far the easier of the two divisions.
One way or another, a spot in the Sun Belt Championship should come down to the regular season finale when the Trojans come to Jonesboro.
Transfer Portal
The Red Wolves needed a lot of players, and they got a lot of players.
They totally rebuilt the defensive line and loaded up in the secondary, but the only thing that matters is the quarterback situation.
One of the several players coming in has to be an instant star for the veteran offense.
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Best Signing
Makai Shahid, S (Youngstown State)
This could be whichever quarterback rises up from the pack – Trey Owens from Texas might be the best signing – but Shahid is right up there with the team’s best new guys.
The Red Wolves are already good at safety, and they added more to the mix with the 6-0, 190-pound Shahid, who made 125 tackles with six broken up passes over the last two years at Youngstown State.
Biggest Loss
Cody Sigler, DT (Auburn)
In his one year at Arkansas State, Sigler turned into a whale of an interior pass rusher with five sacks and 35 tackles for loss. And now he’ll be a part of the rotation at Auburn.
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Other Names to Know
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Joshua Ofor, LB (NC State)
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Manasse Itete, OG (Florida State)
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Noah Flores, CB (Utah State)
CFN Season Prediction
To try threading this prediction needle, Arkansas State should be an okay team with an okay record and with strong overall results.
The glitches might not easily be fixed. The offense will be fine, but all the veteran offensive linemen have to form a better overall unit. The transfer portal will help the defense, but it has to be better, too.
But with the Sun Belt divisional format, it’s possible to lose games and still be deep in the mix for the conference title. That’s Arkansas State.
CFN Prediction: 7-5
Can the Red Wolves win the road games? Last year they lost to Kennesaw State away from home and dropped the date to a bad ULM team, but they also won their last three road games against South Alabama, Troy, and App State in close games.
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This year, they should lose at Memphis and TCU early, and dates at Louisiana and Southern Miss lean loss.
It’ll all come down to back-to-back road games against Coastal Carolina and Louisiana Tech late, and then the home game against Troy.
It’ll be a fourth straight bowl season without too much of a concern, but it’ll take a few breaks to play for the Sun Belt title.
Related: Sun Belt Football: Ranking All 14 Teams Heading Into Spring 2026
