Ahead of tonight’s NHL draft, let’s take a stab at how the first round could play out tonight. First, a moment of silence for our near miss last year – when we tried to predict that Kyle Dubas would go ‘off the board’ with a high pick on a WHL center that no one saw coming. So close, yet so far (we had Cole Reschny as the surprise pick, the Pens ended up making the choice of Ben Kindel instead. I’d say that worked out well).
Trades have rocked the 2026 draft, which could indicate something about how many teams are valuing this draft somewhat unfavorably. Two top-10 picks have been dealt. St. Louis enters the night with a whopping four picks. San Jose has three. Six other teams have two picks, 10 teams enter the night without a first round pick at all. Ottawa received a league punishment where they were assigned the 32nd pick (and cannot trade it today). That builds up to one of the more unpredictable and turbulent drafts in recent memory, with a high probability that the fireworks continue with even more transactions of teams jockeying around.
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Toronto Maple Leafs – Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA): No surprise at the top, the Leafs add the top player and hope he will become a focal point in the years to come
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San Jose Sharks – Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frolunda (SWE): Trading William Eklund solved the mystery of whether or not SJ would reach for a defenseman to help their prospect pool at No. 2, or just take the best player available. Probably wisely, the coast is now clear to have a spot in the future for Stenberg.
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Vancouver Canucks – Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL): For some reason the Canucks have zeroed in on Malhotra, the sixth ranked North American skater from Central Scouting. Malhotra is considered the best center of the class but going third looks like a steep projection on draft day.
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Buffalo Sabres – Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL): Buffalo has their pick of the defensemen in the class and Reid looks like the right handed, blue chip prospect to one day pair beside Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin.
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New York Rangers – Alberts Smits, D, Munchen (GER): Some think Smits could be the most NHL ready player in the draft as a 6’3, 210 pound defender that is rock solid and shined with Team Latvia. I think that fits what the Rangers will covet as a no-maintenance type of big player who could be a bedrock performer. With the top four picks considered somewhat set right now, the Rangers’ choice at No. 5 represents the first major split in the road for how this draft will play out.
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Calgary Flames – Viggo Bjorck, C, Djurgarden (SWE): The Flames get a little saucy with this one, taking the upside of a 5’9, 180 pound center in a world where players like Brayden Point and Logan Stankoven have flourished. This profile of player usually drops on draft night, but Calgary opts to believe in what they could have here.
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Seattle Kraken – Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL): Seattle has somewhat famously never selected a defenseman in the first round, but now Jason Botterill’s hands are fully on the wheel. A disciple of Ray Shero, a smooth skating, puck moving defender with upside fits the mold and needs of this franchise.
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Winnipeg Jets – Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA): Winnipeg is in a nice spot to draft a quality player that falls to this pick, they’re pleased to add a 6’4″ defender compared to Aaron Ekblad. Verhoeff very well could be selected a few picks prior to this, having him available at 8th would be a great development for the Jets.
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San Jose Sharks – Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL): Given team needs (and by taking Stenberg earlier), you’d have to think the Sharks will be in a position to grab the top defender available here at No. 9, depending on who among Smits, Carels, Verhoeff and Rudolph remain. It ends up being Rudolph, who has the frame, tools and ability to be a top-4 player and is exactly what San Jose needs at this point.
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Nashville Predators – Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA): New GM Chris MacFarland gets to work by adding one of the top centers available. Lawrence had a bumpy draft year but is well-regarded as a potential future impact player.
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St. Louis Blues – Wyatt Cullen, LW, USA U-18 (NTDP-USHL): Matt’s boy had a recent growth spurt to 6’1 and has dynamic offensive ability. His future is very bright, the Blues are happy to grab him at this point.
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New Jersey Devils – Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL): New GM Sunny Mehta is from the Panthers’ organization, he knows the value of a 6’5″, 230 pound monster winger that has an edge. Belchetz is headed to Michigan State and could be the next version of a Porter Martone type.
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New York Islanders – Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (FIN): The Islanders have drafted well recently, Suvanto is one of the younger players in the class and already 6’3″, 213 pounds with a a strong two-way game.
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Columbus Blue Jackets – Malte Gustafsson, D, HV71 (SWE): A 6’4″ defender with good reach, skating and first pass ability, the Jackets keep it simple here with a solid choice at this part of the draft.
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St. Louis Blues – Alexander Command, C, Orebro Jr. (SWE-JR): Incoming GM Alex Steen adds a countryman with a solid center option for future depth.
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St. Louis Blues – Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver (WHL): Wait, are the Blues really making all these picks? We already have them down for two forwards, they spread out here to grab an offensive minded right shot defender.
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Los Angeles Kings – Oscar Hemming, LW, Boston College (NCAA): LA grabs a 6’4″ winger with offensive upside and a great shot.
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Washington Capitals – Maddox Dagenais, C, Quebec (QMJHL): The Caps can use prospect help up the middle, Dagenais brings a 6’4″ frame and good offensive ability.
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Utah Mammoth – Ilia Morozov, C, Miami (NCAA): The Mammoth go with a very young player and hope his game develops into his 6’3″, 205 stature.
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Buffalo Sabres –Adam Novotny, LW, Peterborough (OHL): The Czech player excelled in the OHL, he has a nose for the net.
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Philadelphia Flyers – Maksim Sokolovskii, D, London (OHL): A 6’7″, 240 pound physical, stay at home defender seems to fit the Flyers. They also tend to like London products (Oliver Bonk, Denver Barkey).
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Pittsburgh Penguins – JP Hurlbert, LW/C, Kamloops (WHL): I think Hulbert checks almost all the boxes for the players that the Pens tend to take early on. He can play all three forward positions, he’s been complimented for his two-way play and attention to detail away from the puck, he’s a productive WHL player. There’s always the possibility they break pattern and go with a defender or different profile this year, but as a blind guess there’s a lot that points towards Hulbert if he’s available.
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Boston Bruins – Nikita Klepov, RW, Saginaw (OHL): The Bruins go with a skilled forward to add to their group.
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Vancouver Canucks – Elton Hermansson, RW, MoDo (SWE-2): The Canucks add a second forward in the draft.
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Ottawa Senators – Liam Ruck, RW, Medicine Hat (WHL): The Senators go with a skill winger to be part of their future.
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New York Rangers – Brooks Rogowski, C, Oshawa (OHL): When I look at Rogowski, I see Brian Boyle 2.0. Chris Drury was a teammate of Boyle’s, who once scored 21 goals with the Rangers. NYR will bank on Rogowski’s peak being a little longer/higher but his 6’7″ 235 pound frame is what literally stands out.
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San Jose Sharks – Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL): The Sharks have enough draft capital with their third pick of the night to take a wild swing on the immense talents of Villeneuve, who comes with just as immense of a risk.
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Montreal Canadiens – Jack Hextall, C, Youngstown (USHL): Montreal goes with a well-rounded center choice that they’ll hope develops well.
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St. Louis Blues – Casey Mutryn, RW, USA U-18 (NTDP-USHL): Mutryn fits into a sort of Jimmy Snuggerud/Jake Neighbours/Dylan Holloway mold as a high-IQ, forechecking machine of a big winger.
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Calgary Flames – Thomas Bleyl, D, Moncton (QMJHL):: The Flames use their second choice to target the blueline and get a right shot player with offensive upside.
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Carolina Hurricanes – Mathis Preston, RW, Vancouver (WHL): The Hurricanes are always a strong candidate to trade back in the draft, our presumptions rule out trades so we’ll have them stick to type for a player with some dynamic offensive ability.
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Ottawa Senators – Tobias Trejbal, G, Youngstown (USHL): The first goalie goes off the board with the last pick. Trejbal is a 6’4″ netminder with impressive athleticism for his size.
