UFC Baku preview and predictions: Can Manuel Torres break through against Rafael Fiziev?

Almost exactly 365 days after the UFC made its debut in Azerbaijan last year, the MMA leader is set to return this weekend for UFC Baku. After a decision-heavy showing in 2025, this year’s offering has much more potential to deliver highlights aplenty.

Perennial lightweight contender Rafael Fiziev occupies the main-event spot this year when he takes on the wildly dangerous Manuel Torres. Fiziev picked up his last win at the original UFC Baku and hopes to rebound this weekend after a tough loss to Mauricio Ruffy to start his 2026 campaign. Meanwhile, Mexico’s Torres has been an exhilarating finisher of the highest caliber, riding high after back-to-back first-round knockouts.

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Shara “Bullet” Magomedov is also back in action when he fights Michel Pereira at middleweight. Striking matchups don’t get much flashier than that pairing.

Overall, UFC Baku carries a lot of international flair, but nonetheless remains a very top-heavy event in terms of fights that immediately impact their divisions.

👑 UFC Baku’s lineup Crown grade: D. 👑

155 pounds: Rafael Fiziev (-115) vs. Manuel Torres (-105)

Things just haven’t quite been the same for Fiziev since he tore his ACL against Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023.

That admittedly feels somewhat silly to say, considering his two losses to Justin Gaethje have aged tremendously following Gaethje’s lightweight title win. But then there was the Mauricio Ruffy loss at UFC 325 in February — in a pure striker vs. striker matchup, Ruffy won with superior speed and precision. The Brazilian torched Fiziev late in Round 2 with long right hands, making him only the second man to stop Fiziev with strikes since Fiziev’s UFC debut seven years ago.

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It was a competitive fight and came on the heels of Fiziev’s solid performance against Ignacio Bahomondes at 2025’s version of UFC Baku. If we’re doing some MMA math, Bahomondes stopped Torres at UFC 306 in late 2024, so that result can’t be discounted.

Torres, 31, has been an absolute killer throughout his 20-fight career, finishing all but one of his wins. While he was on a submission spree before arriving in the UFC, he’s put away lightweights on the feet more often than not since, stunning every next foe with devastating variety. Torres isn’t afraid to go to war and packs brutality with every strike.

Fiziev’s willingness to engage bodes very well for Mexico’s latest lightweight contender. There shouldn’t be any sign of grappling in this one, unless it’s a result of a knockdown. Fiziev possesses the tools to set Torres back just like he did Bahomondes. There’s just too much danger when it comes to Torres, though, and seeing Ruffy score big on Fiziev is a sight that lingers too freshly in my mind.

Pick: Torres

185 pounds: Sharabutdin Magomedov (-400) vs. Michel Pereira (+310)

Magomedov’s hype died down mightily after his loss to Michael “Venom” Page in February 2025. Was it a fraud check? An exposure? Maybe more of the latter than the former. But either way, the Russian striking sensation was put in his place, and his subsequent win over Marc-Andre Barriault doesn’t even feel like it happened last July.

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On the other side of the coin, Pereira scratched and clawed his way back into the win column with a split decision nod over Zach Reese this past February. The performance snapped a three-fight losing skid that had put Pereira in danger of losing his spot on the roster. That’s right, one hard-fought win was all it took to return to co-main event status.

This fight should see a ton of absurd moves thrown with few connections. A back-and-forth war is not how a matchup between these two should work. Pereira has been brutally exposed as a grappler, and if anyone has an edge here, it’s Magomedov, who likely won’t dip into that well unless he’s forced to.

Expect a flashy point-fighting contest with high potential for a weird finish. That favors Magomedov at this stage, who has still only lost once in his 17-fight career.

Pick: Magomedov

155 pounds: Nazim Sadykhov (-235) vs. Matheus Camilo (+190)

Nazim Sadykhov gets a favorable spot to rebound here after running into a Farès Ziam roadblock. There’s no shame in that loss, and the Azerbaijani standout has built a reputation on pressure and pace that he hopes to return to with his crisp boxing.

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Matheus Camilo is a promising prospect with a well-rounded skill set, but this is a decent jump in competition. He’s still trying to establish himself, while Sadykhov has already proven he belongs against solid UFC opposition.

Camilo’s best path is likely through wrestling and control by making Sadykhov uncomfortable. Sadykhov will aim to make the fight loud and in-your-face with its action. In front of a home crowd, that’s exactly what should happen, going in Sadykhov’s favor.

Pick: Sadykhov

125 pounds: Asu Almabayev (-275) vs. Charles Johnson (+220)

Asu Almabayev loves a good chance to display his chain wrestling and pressure designed to make you miserable. It carried him into the flyweight contender conversation before he hit the wall that was Manel Kape, who was clearly too much too soon.

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Charles Johnson has become one of the division’s most dependable upset threats, carrying bizarrely great hindsight wins over current UFC champion Joshua Van and top contender Lone’er Kavanagh. He’s tough to hold down, keeps a high striking output, and has a knack for making favored opponents work much harder than expected.

If Almabayev can consistently wrestle, he’ll be in control as usual. That’s easier said than done against Johnson, but Almabayev has gotten back into a good stride with his last two wins post-Kape.

Pick: Almabayev

185 pounds: Ikram Aliskerov (-300) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+240)

Ikram Aliskerov remains one of the most talented middleweights outside the rankings, even despite his short-notice loss to Robert Whittaker. His wrestling is high-class, his striking is polished, and he rarely gives opponents many openings — unless it’s those uppercuts he’s tasted in both of his losses.

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Brunno Ferreira couldn’t care less about any of that. “The Hulk” fights with bad intentions and carries the kind of power that erases game plans with one clean shot. It all comes down to landing clean.

That’s the tension here. Without much question, Aliskerov is the better, more complete fighter. But Ferreira can change things in an instant. It’s just difficult to imagine Aliskerov falling victim to it in this spot.

Pick: Aliskerov

185 pounds: Abusupiyan Magomedov (-115) vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk (-105)

Abus Magomedov has quietly settled into his role as a tough out at middleweight. Is he a gatekeeper? Perhaps more so on the backend of the top 15 than somewhere in its depths. But he’s long, patient, and at his best when he can keep fights at his range and make opponents work for every opening. There’s still plenty of potential with Magomedov, but it’s hard to predict how much he’ll tap into it at age 35.

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Michał Oleksiejczuk feels like a similar story, though he’s found his rhythm of late. The Fighting Nerds have helped the Pol turn over a new leaf. Oleksiejczuk was always a man not known for his patience, and that’s remained true since changing teams, but he’s become more calculated when it matters. The former light heavyweight marches forward, throws heat and trusts he’ll wilt the opposition. Sometimes he’s the one doing the wilting, but that’s what’s made him a low-key attraction.

It’s a classic battle between composure and chaos. Magomedov arguably has more ways to win, but Oleksiejczuk only needs one big moment to flip the script, and the dude has great momentum right now.

Pick: Oleksiejczuk

Preliminary Notes

The UFC Baku prelims are a showcase for light heavyweight’s Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev and welterweight’s Daniil Donchenko. Each man’s moneyline clearly reflects that, but those expectations are earned. Both have been brutes thus far in their careers, and they’re the two to keep an eye on most before Saturday’s main card gets underway.

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Quick picks:

• Farman Hasanov (-185) def. Eric Nolan (+150)

• Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-625) def. Julius Walker (+450)

• Nursulton Ruziboev (-225) def. Andrey Pulyaev (+185)

• Kaan Ofli (+150) def. Javier Reyes (-185)

• Daniil Donchenko (-500) def. Theodor Berggren (+360)

• Jean Matsumoto (-165) def. Bekzat Almakhan (+135)

• Tahir Abdullayev (-105) def. Jefferson Nascimento (-115)