It would be easy to assume that Caitlin Clark‘s recent play — ranking top three in both points and assists per game — would place the Indiana Fever superstar toward the top of the WNBA MVP race, but the betting world captures why that is simply not the case.
Las Vegas Aces superstar A’ja Wilson is still an overwhelming favorite at sportsbooks (-1200 odds at DraftKings) and prediction markets (88 percent at Kalshi) to capture her third straight MVP and record fifth overall. Minnesota Lynx rookie Olivia Miles is second at +800 and 8 percent, followed by Clark at 35-to-1 and 4 percent, then Clark’s teammate Kelsey Mitchell at 40-to-1 and 1 percent.
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We know voters take into account a candidate’s relative value to their team, but how can that be actually quantified? The Athletic attempted this by asking betting experts to gauge each candidate’s impact against the point spread, if their team were favored by five points on a neutral court before accounting for their absence.
“It’s similar to the quarterbacks, and [their] point-spread adjustments are based on the [drop-off between them and the] backup. A lot of this is in relation to what’s left remaining on the team,” longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker and Circa Sports senior risk manager Jeff Sherman told The Athletic. “That’s where Wilson stands out.”
Wilson received the highest distinction from each expert interviewed but the value ranged from four to eight points. They also all agreed Wilson’s defense separates her, hence why she also is the second favorite to win her fourth Defensive Player of the Year award (+160).
“A’ja Wilson is the most valuable player in the league due to her great two-way game. With her defensive abilities in addition to the obvious offensive talent, her impact on the spread is the most in the league,” David Lieberman, pro basketball lead at Caesars Sportsbook said. “Depending on the game/situation, she would be worth anywhere from 6-8 points.”
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Wilson leads the league in scoring (26 points per game) and blocks (2 per game), but a deeper statistical dive reveals a domination that no other player can match: She owns the highest PER (player efficiency rating) by a significant margin at 30.1.
By the raw math, Clark moves the betting odds far less than what our eyes may suggest. Her impact on the point spread only ranges from 1.5 to four points, depending on which expert you ask — similar to Mitchell and Miles. But nuance unveils much more depth.
“The team’s success has shown they find a way to play a different style of ball without (Clark). It’s a crazy record, missing one of the most ceiling-raising players in league history,” Dano Mataya, betting analyst for HerHoopsStats said.
Clark has missed four games this season, yet Indiana has won and covered all of them. In last year’s playoffs without her, the Fever were underdogs in all eight games and managed to win half.
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“This team has played plenty of games without her and they were very competitive,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic. “I know people might think she’s the highest impact and she’s playing at a high level, but I still can’t make the number that high.”
Additionally, these games are never played in a vacuum. Clark and the Fever draw all sorts of attention and that also brings out maximum effort from opponents.
“It’s also a case of opponents thinking, ‘Caitlin isn’t playing, so we can relax,'” Mataya said. “They get up for the games when Caitlin is coming to town. They know the game is on national TV and will be watched by a million people.”
Plus, Mitchell is part of the reason the Fever can remain competitive without Clark: Experts valued her worth between two and 3.5 points, within a half-point of Clark, thanks in part to her elite shooting, speed while slashing and structure of playing alongside Clark.
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“Kelsey is just a tougher guard and plays off the ball more. Because of [Fever backup] Ty Harris, it’s about the value of a replacement player,” Mataya said. “They just run better stuff for her, whereas Caitlin does so much on her own off creation and ball screens.”
Add in the fact that Clark also starts alongside four-time All-Star Aliyah Boston, and both her and Clark’s campaigns are hindered by the strength of their teammates — but they’re not alone.
Mataya estimates Miles’ impact on a point spread is just 1.5 points, given starter Courtney Williams earned All-Star honors last year at point guard and can handle the reins. Plus, Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve is the league’s all-time winningest coach and has demonstrated lineup flexibility to win four titles.
None of this means the market has Clark wrong. It means a point spread is answering a narrower question than an MVP ballot. Perhaps her value lies in this Fever team’s ceiling — and her own. The 24-year-old is presumably still ascending, while the 30-year-old Wilson has in fact reached her peak level.
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The exercise clarifies the conversation by reducing the MVP race to the only thing a point spread can actually measure. Every sportsbook, model and bettor arrives at the same name — the one that is heavily favored to win the award.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Minnesota Lynx, Indiana Fever, Las Vegas Aces, WNBA, Sports Betting
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