College football’s hottest hot seats: Which coach is under most pressure?

No coach enters the 2026 college football season under a brighter spotlight than Florida State’s Mike Norvell, who posted an unbeaten regular season in 2023 but has gone a woeful 7-18 since.

That’s not good enough almost anywhere in the Power Four, and especially in Tallahassee. More so than any other major-conference coach, Norvell needs to show significant progress this season to ensure at least another year in charge.

But he’s not alone on the hot seat. Joining him under pressure are coaches such as Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, Baylor’s Dave Aranda and North Carolina’s Bill Belichick. After one season with the Tar Heels, Belichick still has more Super Bowl rings as a head coach (six) than wins as a college coach (four).

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USA TODAY Sports is keeping track on the coaches on the hottest seat heading into the start of the regular season. Here are the names to watch:

The money can’t be ignored. After FSU went unbeaten in the regular season in 2023, Norvell’s connection to Alabama’s post-Nick Saban opening earned him a mammoth new contract that includes a buyout worth 85% of his remaining contract. If fired after this season, he’d be due about $51 million. If things don’t improve, we’ll find out whether FSU is willing to spend that amount to kickstart a new era for the program.

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Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Fickell earned a fourth year despite his 16-21 mark since the start of the 2023 season. That includes back-to-back losing seasons the past two years; the Badgers hadn’t posted a losing record since 2001 or back-to-back losing marks since 1991-92. He’ll have one more year to get Wisconsin back on track but will be hard-pressed to do more than six or so wins given the state of his roster and the quality of the Big Ten.

Bill Belichick, North Carolina

There’s been virtually nothing in the way of good news since Belichick was hired after decades in the NFL. In the latest twist, UNC general manager and longtime Belichick running mate Mike Lombardi was placed on administrative leave following a human resources complaint. Oh, and the on-field results are just as awful. The Tar Heels were barely competitive in Belichick’s four-win 2025 season, and after performing another roster overhaul this winter will need to put everything together to be an ACC factor.

Mike Locksley, Maryland

Locksley has led Maryland to multiple bowl berths and could move himself off the hot seat by doing so again in 2026 with a young but talented roster. Can the Terrapins outperform their youth and relative inexperience compared to the Big Ten? Locksley has made Maryland into a major player for local talent and has shown a knack for quarterback development but badly needs to get the Terrapins back to at least six wins after back-to-back 4-8 finishes.

Dave Aranda, Baylor

Aranda has been in this spot before. He was on the hot seat after a three-win 2023 season but led the Bears to eight wins and the Texas Bowl the following year to put himself on firmer ground. But last year was a step back: Baylor dropped five of six in the second half and went 5-7 overall. Baylor has the potential to be a major player in the NIL space and is running low on patience heading into Aranda’s seventh season.

Bill O’Brien, Boston College

The other former NFL head coach on this list is coming off a horrific two-win 2025 season that saw Boston College finish out of the ACC cellar only by virtue of a win against Syracuse to end the regular season. That dismal showing removed the positive vibes from his seven-win debut in 2024 and showed the hard road ahead for the Eagles to regain a foothold in the bowl race. O’Brien is clearly a talented coach — proven at Penn State and in the NFL — but might be in over his head.

Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Mason’s Power Four experience in the same position at Vanderbilt was supposed to be what Middle Tennessee needed to get back on track in the new-look Conference USA. But the Blue Raiders have posted matching 4-8 marks in Mason’s two seasons and finished in a tie for eighth and ninth in the conference standings. He easily tops the list among Group of Six coaches on the hot seat.

There’s been progress, just not enough: Cincinnati has gone from three wins in 2024 to five wins in 2025 and then seven wins and a bowl bid last season, but at no point has it been a legitimate Big 12 contender. The 2025 Bearcats won seven games in a row and rose as high as No. 16 in the Coaches Poll but dropped five in a row to end the year. At a minimum, Satterfield needs another six- or seven-win season to return in 2027.

Lincoln Riley, USC

Riley could solidify his job status with a rebound season behind a veteran starting quarterback, a wealth of skill options and the arrival of one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. But all bets are off if the Trojans don’t make the leap from eight or nine wins and remain in the playoff mix until the final weekend of the regular season. In fact, Riley might need to land a playoff berth to ensure that he sticks around beyond this year.

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Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State

Mississippi State was undoubtedly better in Lebby’s season year, climbing from 2-10 in 2025 to a backdoor bowl bid as a 5-7 team — though the Bulldogs went from 0-8 in the SEC in Lebby’s debut to just 1-7 last fall. That lack of growth against elite competition is highlighted by the way rival Ole Miss has evolved into a legitimate title threat. Combined, these factors paint Lebby as the SEC coach under the most pressure to deliver in 2026.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football’s hottest hot seats: Which coach is under most pressure?

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