With less than three weeks remaining before Kansas opens the 2026 season against Long Island University, sportsbooks have placed the Jayhawks squarely in the middle of the Big 12 championship race.
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According to BetMGM, Kansas enters the season with +3000 odds to win the Big 12, the 11th-best odds in the conference. The Jayhawks also carry a 5.5-win over/under for the regular season, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Lance Leipold’s squad heading into fall.
Kansas Faces Plenty of Questions Entering the Season
Much of the preseason conversation has centered on the quarterback competition.
Redshirt junior Cole Ballard remains the favorite to win the starting job, but redshirt sophomore Isaiah Marshall continues to push him throughout fall camp. Rice transfer Chase Jenkins is also battling for playing time, giving Kansas multiple options as it searches for a successor to Jalon Daniels.
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Elsewhere on offense, the Jayhawks appear to be in much better shape.
Former Kansas State standout Dylan Edwards headlines a revamped running back room that also features Syracuse transfer Yasin Willis, Colorado State transfer Jalen Dupree and freshman Kory Amachree. At tight end, veterans Carson Bruhn and Leyton Cure provide experience, while Cam Pickett, Keaton Kubecka and Tate Nagy return at wide receiver alongside transfers Nahzae Cox and Nik McMillan.
The biggest unknowns remain along the offensive line and on defense, where Kansas must replace several key contributors while improving against the run after inconsistent performances last season.
Big 12 Odds Reflect Confidence
BetMGM currently lists Texas Tech as the overwhelming conference favorite at +100, followed by BYU at +550.
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Kansas sits at +3000, grouped among a cluster of programs viewed as legitimate bowl contenders but not favorites to compete for the conference championship.
Arizona and Arizona State both sit around +2000, while several other Big 12 programs occupy the same middle tier as the Jayhawks.
The odds suggest sportsbooks see Kansas as a team with enough talent to surprise, but one that still carries significant question marks entering the season.
A 5.5-Win Total Feels Fair
Kansas’ projected win total reflects a difficult schedule. The Jayhawks should be favored against Long Island and Middle Tennessee, giving them two likely victories before conference play intensifies.
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Games against Missouri, Utah, Kansas State and BYU will likely require Kansas to pull off upsets, leaving six contests that could determine whether the Jayhawks return to bowl eligibility.
Matchups against Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, UCF, West Virginia and TCU all project to be competitive, and Kansas will likely need to win at least four of those games to comfortably clear the 5.5-win mark.
If the quarterback situation stabilizes early, the offensive line develops quickly and the defense takes a step forward, Kansas has enough talent to exceed expectations. But if the Jayhawks continue to struggle with turnovers, penalties and defensive consistency, another season around the five-win mark remains a realistic outcome.
For now, Vegas views Kansas as one of the Big 12’s biggest wild cards, a program capable of earning a bowl berth, but one that still has plenty to prove before joining the conference’s top contenders.
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