All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday’s top batter prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+660)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.78 EV
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+680)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.23 EV
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OVER 0.5 RBI (+235)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.99 EV
Nolan Gorman | OVER 0.5 RBI (+249)
Projection: 32% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.87 EV
Chandler Simpson | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+107)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.54 EV
Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets
Shota Imanaga | UNDER 1.5 ER (+129)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.08 EV
Zac Gallen | OVER 4.5 K (-119)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.52 EV
Rhett Lowder | UNDER 2.5 ER (+110)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.95 EV
Simeon Woods Richardson | OVER 3.5 K (-110)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.34 EV
Slade Cecconi | UNDER 3.5 K (+109)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.30 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Chicago Cubs Moneyline:
Chicago looks to extend their home winning streak, currently at 14 in a row. (+14.00 Units / 67% ROI). Current odds: -207
Baltimore Orioles Game Total OVER:
Road games for the Orioles have gone over this bet 10 consecutive times. (+10.00 Units / 89% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -108
New York Yankees Run Line:
The Yankees have won this bet in 14 of their last 20 games. (+9.70 Units / 44% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ -108
Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The Athletics have won this bet in 12 of their last 15 road games. (+8.75 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 0.5 @ -130
St. Louis Cardinals Run Line:
The Cardinals have won this bet in 15 of their last 20 games. (+7.65 Units / 25% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -101
