Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Sacramento, X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., Aug. 22, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif., for UFC Sacramento. In the main event, grappling ace, Anthony Hernandez, attempts to return to the win column opposite powerful knockout artist, Gregory Rodrigues. Elsewhere on the card, Reinier de Ridder makes his UFC Light Heavyweight debut opposite Roman Dolidze after his recent Middleweight struggles (more on that later in the week). Overall, UFC’s long-awaited return to the “City of Trees” features several local fighters and multiple Heavyweight slugfests, which should hopefully prove a fun combination.

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of four main card fights:

Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac (+136) vs. Vitor Petrino (-174)
Best Win for Spivac? Derrick Lewis For Petrino? Tyson Pedro
Current Streak: Spivac won his last bout, while Petrino has won three straight
X-Factor: This is a big step up for Petrino
How these two match up: There’s a solid amount of skill here for a Heavyweight fight.

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Spivac has established himself as the gatekeeper to the elite. He’s not quite athletic nor powerful enough to beat the cream of the crop, but the 31-year-old “Polar Bear” is a talented wrestler and grappler who will turn away anybody without the prerequisite ground skills. In addition, he’s got a rather nice jab, which was on display last time out versus Ante Delija.

Petrino, 28, immediately looked at home when he jumped from 205 pounds to Heavyweight. The Brazilian is still cut from stone, and his power has definitely carried up a division. In fact, he’s shown an ability to maintain a good pace late into fights while still hurting his opposition, which is unusual for the division.

Spivac is a considerable step up from the likes of Steven Asplund and Austen Lane. Unlike Petrino’s recent opponents, Spivac is a serious takedown threat. Therefore, the Brazilian will have to be more careful with his shot selection, because a single poorly-timed low kick could put him at risk of being finished on the canvas.

In the last five years, Spivac has only lost to Top 5-ranked competition. While Petrino is certainly good, I don’t have him pegged as a future title challenger. More likely, Spivac is able to fluster him with jabs and takedown attempts, draining that gas tank and introducing Petrino to his Heavyweight ceiling.

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Prediction: Spivac via decision

Lightweight: Mason Jones (-290) vs. MarQuel Mederos (+215)
Best Win for Jones? David Onama For Mederos? Austin Hubbard
Current Streak: Jones has won three straight in UFC, while Mederos went to a draw last time out
X-Factor: Both men can crack
How these two match up: This is strange matchmaking, but it’s going to be a banger!

It feels like Jones has earned a step up in competition after his successful return to UFC. Though he cannot help but brawl, “The Dragon” is a slick striker who never stops working. He chains together his kicks, punches, and clinch offense beautifully, putting opponents through a blender … if occasionally taking some big shots in the process.

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Mederos is a crafty striker as well. He’s a little less linear, hiding his bursts with lots of feints and stance shifts. As a result, he’s not the same degree of finisher as his opponent. On the plus side, Mederos is also skilled with his sudden double-leg takedowns and clinch trips.

The dynamic here is fairly clear. Jones will walk down Mederos in spite of his formidable kickboxing, resulting in lots of exciting exchanges and hopefully some really interesting clinch trades as well. Generally, Mederos doesn’t fight as well from his back foot, but he hits hard enough to command respect and also can maintain a pace late into fights.

Sounds like a lot of fun.

The question at hand is whether or not Mederos can hit hard enough to deter Jones off his game. I don’t see it, particularly since Jones has tightened up his defense significantly since the first UFC run. Ultimately, I’m expecting a competitive and bloody first round, after which Jones’ unending offense should break down Mederos and allow the Welsh standout to take over.

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Prediction: Jones via decision

Women’s Flyweight: Carli Judice (-620) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+420)
Best Win for Judice? Julianna Miller For Chaves? Sofia Montenegro
Current Streak: Judice has won three straight, while Chaves recently won her UFC debut
X-Factor: Maybe one of these strikers tries to take it to the ground?
How these two match up: It’s nice to see some talent at 125 pounds.

Judice technically lost her first two appearances in the Octagon (if we count Contender Series), but both defeats were exciting wars that ended via split decision. Since then, she’s found her footing as a UFC fighter, using her “Crispy” kickboxing to hurt and outwork a trio of opponents. With five knockouts in six wins, Judice has above-average power in her strikes. Chaves is a striker as well who recently went to war with Yuneisy Duben in her debut. She’s a bit more willing to wrestle than Judice and has more a of a classic Muay Thai style.

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The difference in this bout is strength and power. Both women are kickboxers, but Judice lands with much greater impact, and her physicality holds up well in long fighters. Furthermore, Judice does a better job of attacking all targets, which will help her find openings in Chaves’ defense.

The other big concern for Chaves is conditioning. Chaves tired badly last time out, and she’s going to be taking shots from a heavy hitter who likes to hit the body while pushing a pace. Barring a surprise takedown and quick submission, this feels all wrong for “A Braba.”

Prediction: Judice via knockout

Heavyweight: Kennedy Nzechukwu (+116) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-148)
Best Win for Nzechukwu? Carlos Ulberg For Gaziev? Martin Buday
Current Streak: Nzechukwu enters following a draw, while Gaziev has lost two straight
X-Factor: Gaziev was knocked out 3.5 months ago
How these two match up: Somebody is going to hit the canvas.

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What Nzechukwu lacks in finesse, he makes up for in durability and power. “The African Savage” may be a former Light Heavyweight, but at 6’5,” he’s far from small or weak for the division. Outside of getting instantly heel hooked by Valter Walker (re-live that here), Nzechukwu has been solid in his new weight class.

Gaziev, meanwhile, was undefeated back in his UFC debut, and a quick knockout over Buday sent him shooting up the rankings. Unfortunately, elite competition has proven a step too far for Gaziev. He’s a good a mix of speed and power on the feet, which pairs well enough with meat-and-potatoes kickboxing.

I’ll confess that I don’t have strong feelings about this matchup, a collision of very adequate Heavyweights. Both of them tend to defeat opponents who don’t remain on UFC’s roster for terribly long. One punch could change the fight and render all other dynamics moot in an instant, but there are some differences. Primarily, Nzechukwu holds the edge in volume, whereas Gaziev is likely the heavier hitter. Gaziev’s hands might be a tough quicker, but Nzechukwu will hold an edge in both height and reach.

In this case, however, the X-Factor will indeed be my deciding factor. I don’t like that Gaziev was knocked out so recently, particularly since he absorbed a good bit of damage in the process. To engage in another brawl so soon seems unwise, particularly since Nzechukwu can take a beating and still fire hard in return.

Prediction: Nzechukwu via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2026: 50-23 (1)

To checkout UFC Sacrament’s fight card and lineup click here.